Comment author: Blueberry 06 December 2009 08:34:14AM *  5 points [-]

You are going so far as to say that there is no possible way that there are hypotheses which have yet to be described which could be understood through the methodology of this particular subgroup. This exercise seems to me to be rejecting these studies intuitively,(without study) just from the ad hominem approach to rejection - well they are parapsychologists therefore they are wrong. If they are wrong, then proper analysis would indicate that, would it not?

This is exactly the point. Parapsychology is one of the very few things we can reject intuitively, because we understand the world well enough to know that psychic powers just can't exist. We can reject them even when proper analysis doesn't indicate that they're wrong, which tells us something about the limitations of analysis.

ETA: Essentially, if the scientific method can't reject parapsychology, that means the scientific method isn't strong enough, not that parapsychology might be legitimate.

Comment author: Neil 06 December 2009 01:59:55PM 1 point [-]

If parapsychology is studying the patently non-existent, then the fact that parapsychologists don't typically spend their time debunking their own subject might suggest they are not up to par in some way, as a group, with "the rest of" science - unless you concede that other branches of science would also carry on in the face of total collapse in the credibility of their subject.

Comment author: Neil 25 November 2009 05:03:39AM 0 points [-]

I wonder if you could in theory separate out part of the prestige value. Part of the prestige value of a product would be related to its exclusivity - things that are easily got don't confer prestige for obvious reasons.

So suppose you were looking at two schools that were equally prestigous but one was smaller, more expensive, required better social connections and higher academic achievement to access, and was more preferred by people in higher circles than the other. Then you might conclude that this smaller school derived more of its prestige from its exclusivity than the other school did, and hence on other indicators which might matter more, the larger, less exclusive school was actually better.

In response to Our House, My Rules
Comment author: Neil 02 November 2009 03:27:15AM 4 points [-]

For most kinds of persuasive argumentation, especially in complicated and emotionally laden subjects like child rearing, arguments work on us without us ever being able to fully evaluate their merit. And in that world, it does make sense to down-weight arguments that have some bias built into them.

When we are dealing in such topics, we presumably have our own bias on the subject, and in making some assessment of the degree to which another's argument might need discounting due to their bias, we may bring our own bias into play. Are we then risking just ignoring people (at least to a degree) because they disagree with us?

I'd like to turn the question back on itself here, should we distrust your argument that allows us to discount arguments, especially in emotive debates, on the grounds its conclusion is possibly self-serving for you? that it excuses your discounting of people you disagree with in emotive arguments?

Comment author: wedrifid 25 October 2009 04:13:24PM *  1 point [-]

He thinks it's a question with an answer: win

Comment author: Neil 28 October 2009 01:38:02PM *  0 points [-]

Since a bid's winningness is contingent on other bids you can't use winning as a proxy for understanding. If they all thought and acted like Ashley and broke the pact with 5 cent bids would they all have got a round of applause for their great insight in bidding 5 cents?

Comment author: taw 25 October 2009 10:42:45PM 1 point [-]

Anybody reads them to learn about biology or economics? Or just for entertainment?

The oldest non-fiction book I read for serious reasons was from 1899, and I'd much rather read something more recent if it existed.

Comment author: Neil 27 October 2009 02:52:47AM 1 point [-]

The oldest non-fiction book I've read (cover-to-cover) as it happens was a book of Seneca's letters (first century). His Stoic philosophy might hold some interest to people here.

Comment author: Neil 25 October 2009 01:03:55PM 8 points [-]

I think it's odd that he would say that only Ashley understood the game, not because she may actually be the loser in the wider scheme of things, but because the relevance of the Prisoner's Dilemma is that is actually supposed to be a dilemma. His saying only her action showed understanding suggests he doesn't think it's a real dilemma at all. He thinks it's a question with an answer: defect.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 22 October 2009 11:33:43PM 9 points [-]

In fewer words: we can imagine things that cannot exist.

Comment author: Neil 24 October 2009 03:24:48PM *  1 point [-]

I think he's saying something more limiting - we cannot tell if we imagine things that cannot exist.

or even as far as - we cannot tell if things cannot exist. :)

Comment author: Markov 08 October 2009 01:13:32AM 10 points [-]

What is meant here by "magic?" To me, it seems that it is synonymous with effortlessness; anyone skilled in a craft makes it look easy. In order to create this magic, a person toils in private. Since no one saw the preparation, the result looks like it came from nowhere--i.e., magic.

Comment author: Neil 09 October 2009 03:40:27PM 3 points [-]

Arthur C Clarke said it -

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

Comment author: cousin_it 08 October 2009 10:15:28AM *  36 points [-]

just getting out of the house.

...Damn! That's exactly the kind of vague advice that HughRistik decries. Imagine teaching an extraterrestrial alien to smoke cigarettes.

You: Open the pack.

Alien: (looks at pack in a puzzled way)

You: Just tear it open, man

Alien: (tears pack in half, cigarette bits fly everywhere)

...

You: Put the cigarette in your mouth.

Alien: (stuffs entire cigarette into mouth)

And so on, and so forth. "Get out of the house" is a totally useless piece of advice for the kind of person that needs it. Okay, I'm out of my house right now, what next? You remind me of Alicorn who wouldn't stop insisting that finding potential dates in your social circle is "easy" if you "just do it".

(Related: I've entertained the idea of suggesting to Alicorn that she apply her superior understanding of women to teach pickup to male students. I imagine her entering the classroom, glancing at the audience composed of actual average guys and going "...oh, you meant that kind of average? I had no idea such people even existed. Obviously, teaching them to approach women would be disgusting and a gross betrayal of my sex. I'm outta here.")

Comment author: Neil 09 October 2009 03:38:07PM 6 points [-]

I think your description of the alien with the cigarette pack highlights the fact the problem with advice often lies in the fact that it's too chunky. By that I mean the steps are described at too high a level. This can happen when there's a great difference in the levels of experience of the advisor and the advised, and the advisor has become so familiar with the processes they have been conceptually black boxed. In fact the black boxing is a necessary part of the process - you ride a bike well when you no longer think about how to ride a bike, and you socialise well when you're no longer aware of what you're doing to make your socialising successful. If the advisor doesn't realise that the advised has no idea how these black boxes work, the advice isn't worth much to him.

Comment author: Bugle 26 September 2009 11:01:45PM 1 point [-]

How about simple spontaneous population stability... I live in a country with negative birth rate but the population is increasing due to immigration nevertheless. This state of affairs hasn't been legislated into existence, it just happened, and may be a natural behaviour of large human populations. Perhaps once the whole world reaches western standards of living the whole world will stop growing exponentially, with pockets of negative growth being compensated by low but positive growth in others... in the long term the trend could even be for decreasing population...

Comment author: Neil 27 September 2009 01:45:31PM 2 points [-]

In the long term (and I mean the very long term) people will evolve to get around the obstacles that stop them producing the children they could.

If contraception decouples sex from reproduction, people will evolve to be less interested in sex and more directly interested in babies.

If entertainment proves more compelling than having kids, people will evolve to be less entertainable.

If being a responsible, well adjusted person is limiting family size, people will evolve to be irresponsible, poorly adjusted people.

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