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3 AM? Y'all are dedicated.
Meetup : Rescheduled: Chicago Calibration Game
Discussion article for the meetup : Rescheduled: Chicago Calibration Game
This Saturday, we'll be playing a personal calibration game. From the LW wiki: "One person reads the question aloud, and everyone writes down their 50% and 90% confidence intervals. For example, if you’re 50% sure that 20% - 40% of the world’s countries are landlocked, write that down as your 50% confidence interval." After everyone has written down confidence intervals, the correct answer is revealed. If we run out of questions, we can spend the rest of the time discussing PredictionBook, idea futures, and similar.
Discussion article for the meetup : Rescheduled: Chicago Calibration Game
Meetup : Chicago: Seeing with Fresh Eyes Review
Discussion article for the meetup : Chicago: Seeing with Fresh Eyes Review
After a month-long hiatus, we'll be resuming with a meetup focusing on the highlighted entries in the Seeing with Fresh Eyes sequence: • Cached Thoughts • We Change Our Minds Less Often Than We Think • Hold Off On Proposing Solutions Feel free to join even if you read these a long time ago, read a different parts of this sequence, or just have something related to share. http://www.meetup.com/Less-Wrong-Chicago/events/174360732/
Discussion article for the meetup : Chicago: Seeing with Fresh Eyes Review
"I don't think he's in any trouble," I say. "I would like to ask him about Bitcoin. This man is Satoshi Nakamoto." "What?" The police officer balks. "This is the guy who created Bitcoin? It looks like he's living a pretty humble life."
Anyone else find it odd that a random cop knows who Satoshi is?
Only slightly; Bitcoin had awareness on Less Wrong when it was still fairly obscure, IIRC, but I have heard it discussed recently by people offline and far removed from LW (a coworker, "random" people on the street).
The reporter began with the very questionable assumption that Satoshi Nakamoto was his real name*. Because of this, it is less surprising that they found someone with that name and some resemblance to "The" Satoshi Nakamoto. 0.05.
* "It was only while scouring a database that contained the registration cards of naturalized U.S. citizens that a Satoshi Nakamoto turned up whose profile and background offered a potential match." -- It's possible from this sentence they were doing an unrelated search and just saw the name, but I doubt it.
I bet he believes you can't walk on the moon either.
Yet, no one has been on the moon in decades. Environmental circumstances cannot be ignored. You can't go to the moon right now -- maybe in some years, most likely not. "What can a twelfth-century peasant do to save themselves from annihilation? Nothing."
In response to
Rationality Quotes November 2013
How would you move Mount Fuji?
Take some time. Think about it.
Got an answer?
Good.
Throw it away.
You can't move Mount Fuji.
In response to
November 2013 Media Thread
Television and Movies Thread
Anime: Shin Sekai Yori is essentially several layers of unintended consequences placed into a puzzling world. It has three arcs following Saki Watanabe's early life in a society with psychokinesis, lots of hidden rules, and somewhat questionable morality.
In order to prevent humans sebz xvyyvat bar nabgure jvgu gurve cbjref, gurl unir orra trargvpnyyl zbqvsvrq gb frys-qrfgehpg hcba qbvat fb. Juvyr vg znxrf zheqre fbzrjung yrff pbairavrag va-fgbel, vg qbrf abg fgbc gur pbzzvggrrf gung eha gur fbpvrgl sebz ryvzvangvat crbcyr ivn pngf bgure bgure ebhaqnobhg zrnaf. The indirectness of the action gung pnhfrf fbzrbar'f qrngu can apparently be rather thin.
A subtly wrong word ends up being very important.
Meetup : Chicago Open Discussion
Discussion article for the meetup : Chicago Open Discussion
This is our not-quite-regular open discussion meetup in Chicago.
Discussion article for the meetup : Chicago Open Discussion
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This has been rescheduled as the previous date didn't work for some people.