Maybe you are now going to read the scripture from our lord Kahneman as prescribed by Yudkowsky his prophet (ahem).
Original paper: http://www.hss.caltech.edu/~camerer/Ec101/JudgementUncertainty.pdf
Amazon: http://www.amazon.de/Judgment-under-Uncertainty-Heuristics-Biases/dp/0521284147
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I wonder if this is a bit more publicity than gwern bargained for.
Is it the same gwern?