You are so mind-killed that you non-jokingly advocated folk activism on Less Wrong as the first method to stop the "censorship of the internet".

I'm thinking that, with regard to this narrow issue -- SOPA -- the usual rules don't apply. I agree with you that most politics is green-team-versus-blue-team, and for this reason politics is the mindkiller. But I'm under the impression that both support and opposition to SOPA come from people on both the left and the right. Similarly, the CATO article you link to is correct in asserting that folk activism isn't going to make America roll back the welfare state. But SOPA isn't the welfare state. It has some politically-savvy interests behind it, Hollywood and the RIAA. That's important, but there are also some powerful interests opposing SOPA. The tech industry has tended to be politically naive compared to Hollywood, but it has money to spend, and the politicians know this. I bet the great majority of politicians who could never be persuaded budge on traditional political issues like social security or abortion might happily swing around on a technical issue like SOPA if they see the tide turning. And I'm told that the way to convince a politician who is open to being persuaded is a letter on paper.*

*Actually, the very best way to get a politician on your side is, of course, to convincingly indicate that a huge campaign donation and/or a guaranteed block of votes is likely to follow if they support your cause.

Why do you assume that the Supreme Court will side with the pirates, and not with the hard-working media corporations ? The issue is currently being framed in these terms, after all.

Yes, and then what ? Freenet servers can (and, AFAIK, routinely are) be blocked by IP. Protocol analysis tools can (and again, AFAIK, already are) used to block undesirable packets regardless of IP. Perhaps more importantly, any person who is using a tool like Tor or Freenet is exposing himself to a serious risk of prosecution, incarceration, or, in extreme cases, execution. This is a risk that most people simply wouldn't be willing to take.

Ok, and how will users here in the US learn about this network, and gain reliable access to it ? There will always exist some tech-savvy and reckless people who will find a way to communicate freely no matter what -- they exist even in China and Iran, today -- but I fully expect them to be a negligible minority.

The final result (assuming the legislation stays in place) will be a US internet that only contains content the RIAA et al. approve of; everything else will be blocked.

I find it unlikely that any kind of an alternative DNS network will be allowed to exist for very long, unless such network fully conforms to US laws (and maybe not even then). There's no such network in China, for example; why do you think we'll have one here in the US ?

Okay, I know it's a low-status signal to appear to be celebrating religious holidays on LW, but just admit it was a holiday party for LWers. There's nothing wrong with that as long as you recognize that the pagan holidays are founded on incorrect ideas.The verbal gymnastics in your first paragraph are seriously painful to read.

My prediction is that SOPA and PIPA will pass in pretty much their current form (if they haven't already); the "write your Congressman" campaigns led by EFF, Wikipedia, and others, will have a negligible effect at best. However, I also predict that, in practice, SOPA will not be used to shut down any major website, such as Twitter or Youtube, though a non-trivial number of startups, personally hosted blogs, and other smaller websites will be taken down. Instead, the media industry will forge a deal with Google, Twitter, Facebook and other website providers, wherein the media industry receives an easy mechanism to take down whatever content they want at the click of a button -- in exchange for a promise to never use the SOPA nuclear option against the website provider (*).

I also predict, though with lower probability, that at least one major court challenge will be brought up against SOPA/PIPA shortly after its inception. Should such a challenge be brought, I expect to see a drawn-out legal battle that spans several years and ultimately goes nowhere (other than a settlement, perhaps).

Once SOPA passes, I expect alternative DNS providers to put up a token resistance, then fall in line, bowing down to "financial incentives", previous obligations, and outright legal intimidation. Alternative network infrastructure, such as Tor or Freenet or some new tool, will see a minor surge in popularity. If they really do take off (which I doubt), they will be quickly shut down in the name of fighting piracy, but an underground community of alternative network users will always exist.

I am very, very certain, however, that the average American internet user (and voter) will neither notice SOPA, nor care about it one way or the other.

(*) UMG claimed to have such a deal already in place, but it looks like they lied.

You can't use an alternate DNS server (that actually returns replies different from the official server) without breaking DNSSEC.

The guy who runs OpenDNS says he won't fight SOPA.

If this was turned into a permanent link, I think it might be worthwhile to start over with a poll that leaves the option of putting your LW name attached to your location.

Even better, if you could hover over/click on a plot point, and have their name pop up.

For example, instead of just knowing that there are 2 people located within driving distance, you could know that Person A and Person B were within driving distance.