OrphanWilde

In Defense of Tone Arguments

Suppose, for a moment, you're a strong proponent of Glim, a fantastic new philosophy of ethics that will maximize truth, happiness, and all things good, just as soon as 51% of the population accepts it as the true way; once it has achieved majority status, careful models in game theory show that Glim proponents will be significantly more prosperous and happy than non-proponents (although everybody will benefit on average, according to its models), and it will take over. Glim has stalled, however; it's stuck at 49% belief, and a new countermovement, antiGlim, has arisen, claiming that Glim is a corrupt moral system with fatal flaws which will destroy the country if it has its way. Belief is starting to creep down, and those who accepted the ideas as plausible but weren't ready to commit are starting to turn away from the movement. In response, a senior researcher of Glim ethics has written a scathing condemnation of antiGlim as unpatriotic, evil, and determined to keep the populace in a state of perpetual misery to support its own hegemony. He vehemently denies that there are any flaws in the moral system, and refuses to entertain antiGlim in a public debate. In response to this, belief creeps slightly up, but acceptance goes into a freefall. You immediately ascertain that the negativity was worse for the movement than the criticisms; you write a response, and are accused of attacking the tone and ignoring the substance of the arguments. Glim and antiGlim leadership proceed into protracted and nasty arguments, until both are highly marginalized, and ignored by the general public. Belief in Glim continues, but when the leaders of antiGlim and Glim finally arrive on a bitterly agreed upon conclusion - the arguments having centered on an actual error in the original formulations of Glim philosophy, they're unable to either get their remaining supports to cooperate, or to get any of the public to listen. Truth, happiness, and all things good never arise, and thi

32Jul 19, 2012

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Suppose HBD is True

Suppose, for the purposes of argument, HBD (Human bio-diversity, the claim that distinct populations (I will be avoiding using the word "race" here insomuch as possible) of humans exist and have substantial genetical variance which accounts for some difference in average intelligence from population to population) is true, and that...

Apr 21, 2016-17

Making My Peace with Belief

I grew up in an atheistic household. Almost needless to say, I was relatively hostile towards religion for most of my early life. A few things changed that. First, the apology of a pastor. A friend of mine was proselytizing at me, and apparently discussed it with his pastor; the...

Dec 3, 201520

Dark Arts: Defense in Reputational Warfare

First, the Dark Arts are, as the name implies, an art, not a science. Likewise, defending against them is. An artful attacker can utilize expected defenses against you; if you can be anticipated, you can be defeated. The rules, therefore, are guidelines. I'm going to stage the rules in a...

Dec 3, 20159

Omega's Idiot Brother, Epsilon

Epsilon walks up to you with two boxes, A and b, labeled in rather childish-looking handwriting written in crayon. "In box A," he intones, sounding like he's trying to be foreboding, which might work better when he hits puberty, "I may or may not have placed a million of your...

Nov 25, 20157

The Winding Path

The First Step The first step on the path to truth is superstition. We all start there, and should acknowledge that we start there. Superstition is, contrary to our immediate feelings about the word, the first stage of understanding. Superstition is the attribution of unrelated events to a common (generally...

Nov 24, 201512

In Defense of the Fundamental Attribution Error

The Fundamental Attribution Error Also known, more accurately, as "Correspondence Bias." http://lesswrong.com/lw/hz/correspondence_bias/ The "more accurately" part is pretty important; bias -may- result in error, but need not -necessarily- do so, and in some cases may result in reduced error. A Simple Example Suppose I write a stupid article that makes...

Jun 3, 201513

Visions and Mirages: The Sunk Cost Dilemma

Summary How should a rational agent handle the Sunk Cost Dilemma? Introduction You have a goal, and set out to achieve it. Step by step, iteration by iteration, you make steady progress towards completion - but never actually get any closer. You're deliberately not engaging in the sunk cost fallacy...

May 20, 2015-13

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OrphanWilde

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In Defense of Tone Arguments

Making My Peace with Belief

Is Politics the Mindkiller? An Inconclusive Test

In Defense of the Fundamental Attribution Error

OrphanWilde

Suppose HBD is True

Making My Peace with Belief

Dark Arts: Defense in Reputational Warfare

Omega's Idiot Brother, Epsilon

The Winding Path

In Defense of the Fundamental Attribution Error

Visions and Mirages: The Sunk Cost Dilemma

In Defense of Tone Arguments

Making My Peace with Belief

Is Politics the Mindkiller? An Inconclusive Test

In Defense of the Fundamental Attribution Error

Suppose HBD is True

Making My Peace with Belief

Dark Arts: Defense in Reputational Warfare

Omega's Idiot Brother, Epsilon

The Winding Path

In Defense of the Fundamental Attribution Error

Visions and Mirages: The Sunk Cost Dilemma