Comment author: gwern 22 August 2013 05:45:24PM 3 points [-]

3) Me and muflax are actually going to go work full time on developing [this totally amazing educational technology that will completely revolutionize human civilization but you have no reason to care about that until you've seen a demo in action so nevermind].

With muflax, huh. This sounds like it'll be epic to watch, regardless of how it turns out.

Comment author: Owen_Richardson 22 August 2013 05:59:52PM -1 points [-]

ours is the romance that shall shake down the very foundations of human civilization, and give birth to a new world in their place, yes

(... "ha ha but serious" xD )

Comment author: solipsist 22 August 2013 05:07:06PM *  2 points [-]

Cookbook for standard best practices in the US:

  1. Open a Roth IRA account
  2. Select a fund for when you retire
  3. Contribute $5000 every year to that fund.
  4. If you have money left over, or make more than $50,000 per year and so should be saving more than $5,000 per year, set up a general savings account with the same target retirement fund.
  5. Keep your other finances in order. Keep enough cash in your bank account to last you at least 2 months, preferably 3 or more, plus $1000. Emergencies will happen. Don't do anything stupid like acquire credit card debt. If you follow only one step, follow this step.
Comment author: Owen_Richardson 22 August 2013 05:45:02PM *  -2 points [-]

Yeah, I actually just discovered that I've gone completely off the deep end, so your sane and measured advice is completely useless to me, sorry. xD

( 1. Nope 2. What is this "retire"? 3. Nope. 4. Ha ha ha what. 5. Well yeah, of course. )

I think I'd edit in a notice to the top of the post so other well-meaning folks like you don't get tricked into wasting your time trying to talk sense into a total nutcase like me. :)

(I appreciate all y'all, though. ^^ )

Comment author: RolfAndreassen 22 August 2013 03:48:02PM 6 points [-]

You have two separate questions tangled into one. I suggest you need to disentangle them. They are:

  1. How should I invest a lump sum for minimum stress?
  2. Should I invest my lump sum in my startup?

People seem to be answering number 1, but that rather depends on you having decided that the answer to number 2 is "no". My opinion is that, if you believe your startup has a good chance of success, then yes, swing for the fences. Thirteen thousand is not a huge sum - if you get a reasonably good job, you can easily save up that much in a year. But it will keep you in ramen noodles long enough that you can tell whether your startup will succeed or not. So, your downside is very limited by adult standards, but the upside is presumably quite large.

If I were going to go for the startup, I would split my 13K in two halves. One half goes in a checking account, ready to pay for my ramen noodles for the next six months. The other half goes in a six-month CD, where it will accumulate 32 dollars and fifty cents of interest. Obviously this is not intended to actually make money, it's a precommitment to not touching that half until next year. Then in February, take the money out of the CD and re-evaluate the startup. Does it still seem like a good idea? Great, more ramen noodles. If not, give it up, start looking for a job, and put the remaining 6532.50 in a proper investment account.

For added precommitment, you could try splitting up the first half into a ready sum and a three-month CD, perhaps even some one-month CDs that you roll over until you need them; the interest will be utterly derisory but it's a convenient way of managing your monthly budgets.

Incidentally, if you haven't already done so, for the sake of all the absent gods go and read Paul Graham's essays.

Comment author: Owen_Richardson 22 August 2013 05:37:51PM 1 point [-]

... Yes, the winner is you.

Our answer to 2, from the depths of our souls, can only be: Hell. Fucking. Yes.

Now, Paul Graham is awesome (he has left me in a state of complete conviction that LISP is the One True Way, to which I must aspire), but that's... alot of essays. (An entire herd of alots, majestically migrating across vast prairies of prose.)

And I think our "startup" is going to be a lot different from what is normally meant by the term, so... I'ma sketch said differences, and you can tell me what you think is relevant, if you want.

  • Our "startup" is never going to be a publicly traded company.

  • We're actually not trying to become "rich", but to win the freedom to focus on doing nothing but work on inherently awesome projects.

  • Once we've got our prototype, we'll be able to easily start paying the bills through... basically tutoring celebrities and other rich people part time.

(That sounds bizarre, but we've got an outside view on this. The whole thing has basically been done before by people who had a clumsy grasp of the theory underlying the technology, and didn't even take advantage of basic computer programming tools to assist in the analysis. Just... stipulate this point.)

  • Although we also have, like, web-app subscription models we expect to get some cash flowing through...

  • So we going for establishing a reputation that'll allow us to maintain our frugal lifestyle easily off of a bit of consulting-y work, and some nice monthly cashflow for web-apps etc...

  • But essentially we're doing a startup for... a non-profit?

  • We're basically fantasizing not about giant IPO's, but about massive Kickstarter popularity whenever we announce a new project. And eventually creating our own university. A school that actually is for learning.

So yes, we're obviously insane. But let's stipulate that trying to live a "sane" life would be worse than death for us, and that the only type of advice we could possibly make use of is tips on how to kick ass at pulling off crazy things.

What does Graham have that I should read?

Comment author: Emily 22 August 2013 09:19:47AM 3 points [-]

but in, like, some African region that has previously been served by, I dunno, jungle-donkeys

I realise you only meant this flippantly, but... it sounds really unpleasantly dismissive to me. Just wanted to flag this.

Good luck with the money, I'm afraid I have no useful knowledge!

Comment author: Owen_Richardson 22 August 2013 04:27:32PM *  -1 points [-]

...

Do you know who the voyageurs were?

They were men who had to work in a massive wilderness where the only "infrastructure" was a bunch of rivers.

So they would just build a goddamn boat right there in the middle of nowhere with some bark they ripped off a tree, and canoe across a fucking continent. And where they couldn't paddle, they would get out and carry the damn thing, even when it was loaded down with a mountain of beaver skins.

Nobody "dismisses" these guys.

I'll tell you who we do "dismiss": The aristocratic assholes back in Europe who funded this whole phenomena with their insatiable hunger for ridiculous furry top-hats made out of giant pond rats (a fashion statement which they somehow failed to realize should do nothing but scream out to society at large in towering letters of fire, "I AM A BRAINLESS GIT").

In short, you sound unpleasantly dismissive of jungle-donkeys. ;)

Comment author: Cthulhoo 22 August 2013 08:16:02AM *  1 point [-]

Markets are essentially random walks with an upward trend?

Yes, but with a relatively high variance.

“Index funds” are magic boxes that you put money in and your money will grow at the same rate of the market that the fund “indexes”?

This is more or less true (minus some potential entry/manteinance costs)

“Developing world” economies generally grow a lot quicker than those in the “developed world”?

In general this is true, but the variance here is even higher. Lately, though, they are not performing particularly well (see here for example).

And there are enough of these places over the world, and they're independent enough, that natural disasters/political trouble/etc in a few of them still leave a consistent and high rate of average growth? So shouldn't I just put all my money in a fund that “indexes” all these "developing" economies together?

Yes, diversification reduces the risk, but the risk for equities remains in general significantly higher then the one for e.g. government bonds (i.e. losing your money is a real concern).

That said, even with a very good allocation, it should be very hard to make more than 8-10% a year with you investent (not impossible, mind you, chaotic systems are chaotic). This means rouglhy 1-1.3K per year in you condition. Of course, mr. exponential says that the longer the investment, the better (barring future market instabilities). It's up to you to decide if it's worth it. On the other hand, if you don't need the money now, there are other forms of investing that block your capital for a longer period of time, but with much lower risk.

EDIT Maybe it's an obvious advice, but be careful about what you're doing. If there's someone you trust to whom you can ask questions and submit invesment proposals for evaluation, absolutely do it. In any case, try to learn at least the basic features of what you're investing in (e.g. stock markets' returns have fat tails, whch means high probability of heavy losses, various derivatives can have many complicated features). I'll be glad to answer any questions, here or by PM, the best I can, but any specific investment must be evaualted on its own.

Comment author: Owen_Richardson 22 August 2013 08:47:34AM 0 points [-]

All that said... how would you respond to question 4?

You can kind of tell that it was the question I came to realize was key, through the process of writing the post...

Should I even bother with this "investment" stuff right now, or just move the whole 13k sum to a simple savings account and worry about reinvesting it in a year?

Comment author: Cthulhoo 22 August 2013 08:16:02AM *  1 point [-]

Markets are essentially random walks with an upward trend?

Yes, but with a relatively high variance.

“Index funds” are magic boxes that you put money in and your money will grow at the same rate of the market that the fund “indexes”?

This is more or less true (minus some potential entry/manteinance costs)

“Developing world” economies generally grow a lot quicker than those in the “developed world”?

In general this is true, but the variance here is even higher. Lately, though, they are not performing particularly well (see here for example).

And there are enough of these places over the world, and they're independent enough, that natural disasters/political trouble/etc in a few of them still leave a consistent and high rate of average growth? So shouldn't I just put all my money in a fund that “indexes” all these "developing" economies together?

Yes, diversification reduces the risk, but the risk for equities remains in general significantly higher then the one for e.g. government bonds (i.e. losing your money is a real concern).

That said, even with a very good allocation, it should be very hard to make more than 8-10% a year with you investent (not impossible, mind you, chaotic systems are chaotic). This means rouglhy 1-1.3K per year in you condition. Of course, mr. exponential says that the longer the investment, the better (barring future market instabilities). It's up to you to decide if it's worth it. On the other hand, if you don't need the money now, there are other forms of investing that block your capital for a longer period of time, but with much lower risk.

EDIT Maybe it's an obvious advice, but be careful about what you're doing. If there's someone you trust to whom you can ask questions and submit invesment proposals for evaluation, absolutely do it. In any case, try to learn at least the basic features of what you're investing in (e.g. stock markets' returns have fat tails, whch means high probability of heavy losses, various derivatives can have many complicated features). I'll be glad to answer any questions, here or by PM, the best I can, but any specific investment must be evaualted on its own.

Comment author: Owen_Richardson 22 August 2013 08:44:34AM *  -1 points [-]

Hm.

Well, I just did a quick google search for developing economies and looked for graphs that seemed to deal with the comparison I'm interested in.

For instance:

http://carnegieendowment.org/images/article_images/decoupleR1.gif

http://blogs.worldbank.org/files/prospects/charts/nl33cj23.sn0/chart-small.png

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/9/4/saupload_trendr1.png

http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4094/4771449749_7c63d01bdc.jpg

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2012/09/images/dervis2.jpg

And my dad put the majority of investments in "Canada" and "US", which... are in the group of economies represented by the lower lines. (And the rest in "world", which is the average of the low and the high lines.)

As far as I can tell, his decision was based on... a heuristic that developing countries are lower status, and lower status=poorer=not a good investment? (I say "decision", but I don't know if it even occurred to him as an option...)

Simple investing for a complete beginner? (Just… developing world index funds?)

-5 Owen_Richardson 22 August 2013 07:15AM

[EDIT: Through conversation with Rolf Andreassen below, it has been brought to my attention that I am simply completely and irretrievably insane.

Sane and well-measured advice is therefore wasted on me, and I just wanted to edit in this notice here so that other well-meaning folks don't get tricked into wasting their time trying to talk sense into a total nutcase like me. :)

(I appreciate all y'all, though. ^^ ) ]

So my dad set up a trust fund for me when I was a kid, and I've got 13k (CAD) now, which I am going to be taking direct control of.

Now, I have no interest in making a deep study of investment. I have a life to live and dealing with money is boring.

The only thing more boring than dealing with money, is dealing with a lack of money, and so I want to optimize the time and thought I spend avoiding that down to a minimum.

Four things occur to me:

1) Taking the naive and sparse knowledge I have of this area, basically just stuff I‘ve randomly osmosis’d up, this is my train of thought:

Markets are essentially random walks with an upward trend?

“Index funds” are magic boxes that you put money in and your money will grow at the same rate of the market that the fund “indexes”?

“Developing world” economies generally grow a lot quicker than those in the “developed world”?

(This makes sense to me. Places like the US, Canada Europe, etc, already have mature transportation and communication infrastructure. You can't get much economic growth out of doing basic stuff like building a new highway here, but in, like, some African region that has previously been served by, I dunno, jungle-donkeys, it makes a proportionally much bigger difference.)

There are a few countries where “developing” is a euphemism for “totally messed up”, but in general it really does mean “growing”?

And there are enough of these places over the world, and they're independent enough, that natural disasters/political trouble/etc in a few of them still leave a consistent and high rate of average growth?

So shouldn't I just put all my money in a fund that “indexes” all these "developing" economies together?

2) My dad set up this trust fund with a bank that has a bunch of big expensive physical buildings for some reason. I recently read a letter from them saying that they will charge a $100 yearly fee for having less than 15k in an account.

Are there better options I should be taking than opening my own account with an institution that thinks it makes sense to charge me a hundred bucks for not being rich?

3) Me and muflax are actually going to go work full time on developing [this totally amazing educational technology that will completely revolutionize human civilization but you have no reason to care about that until you've seen a demo in action so nevermind].

We might spend as much as a year (yeah, that's outside-view calibrated) working on it until we have something we can make a living off of while continuing development.

We think we can get total living costs for a year down into the 5k..10k range… maybe even lower. We're going to be living in the UK, because of reasons.

So… can I leave this measly 13k in an investment account and still draw out of it for monthly costs?

4) Or is this whole “investing” thing something I should even be bothering with at all right now?

Should I just pop out the whole sum into a savings account that I can draw from as I need, and worry about reinvesting whatever is left over then, a year from now, after we have obviously started on our way to becoming rich and famous?

Meetup : Baltimore meetup

2 Owen_Richardson 29 September 2011 02:37AM

Discussion article for the meetup : Baltimore meetup

WHEN: 01 October 2011 02:00:00PM (-0400)

WHERE: "Chocolatea Cafe", 3811 Canterbury Road Baltimore, MD

I know this is short notice, but me and Mark Eichenlaub at least will be meeting up this Saturday. =]

Note that the venue has changed from last time.

Discussion article for the meetup : Baltimore meetup

Comment author: [deleted] 25 September 2011 08:05:33AM 2 points [-]

The most I've been doing is poking at a post tentatively titled "A dry introduction to the empirical evidence on DI's effectiveness", essentially a summary of "Research on Direct Instruction", since I was feeling like maybe the best thing to do would be to take a step back and present a better explanation of why people should be interested in the theory before explaining the theory itself. (Yes? No? Maybe?)

Personally, I'm eager to actually use DI more in my own learning, so I'm currently working through Theory of Instruction. But some better evidence than PFT would be nice, yes. Especially if it isn't always about basic skills. (Because otherwise, no matter how good the technique, I won't benefit from it.)

Comment author: Owen_Richardson 25 September 2011 07:13:28PM 3 points [-]

Interestingly enough, the study with the highest effect size in the meta-analysis (2.44) involved non-basic skills. Actually I think I'll just type up the summary:

This study analyzes the use of the Earth Science videodisc program with elementary education majors who traditionally have had negative attitudes towards science teaching. One group received the DI program and the other group received the traditional approach [random assignment, of course] during a one-semester science course. The DI group had significantly higher posttest knowledge scores (91%) and higher confidence in their understanding of science knowledge and ability to teach science.

Cited as:

"Vitale, M. & Romance, N. (1992). Using videodisc instruction in an elementary science methods course: Remediating science knowledge deficiencies and facilitating science teaching. Journal of Research in Science teaching, 29, 915-928."

Not that I've dug up the original paper myself yet.

But one of my favorites was a study that didn't use random assignment, but actually compared the performance of two groups of high school students: AP kids (doing whatever they normally do to study), and kids with performance previously in the lower two quartiles (taught through a videodisc course on "Chemistry and energy"). Both groups then took the same test.

Results as a researcher reported informally outside the study: “The experimentals whumped the AP students on all topics related to what was covered by the videodiscs of our course.”

(This one wasn't included in the meta-analysis, so I'll have to try to dig up the reference later.)

Comment author: jsalvatier 25 September 2011 10:35:52AM 1 point [-]

My best wishes to your mom. I can sympathize with you a lot there.

If you want someone to read over material you have and give you critical feedback at any stage of the process, I am eager to help you. For example, if you have an outline or are planning on basing your writing on the previous post, I'd be happy to give you feedback on those. Also, if you need access to any papers, I have access to a university library account, so I can get you those. The same goes for Misha. Don't be at all shy about asking me for help. You can either contact me through PM, email me (username at gmail), or make a discussion post.

I suspect the motivation for studying DI shouldn't take more than a paragraph.

Hope your internship is starting off well. Who are you interning with/what are you doing?

Comment author: Owen_Richardson 25 September 2011 06:32:33PM 1 point [-]

Thank you for your offer of help with feedback (I'll def take you up on that) and papers (there are some papers referenced in "Research on Direct Instruction" I might like to get my hands on), and the sympathy on my ma.

I'm interning at a DI school in Baltimore (City Springs). Currently working with the kindergarteners on the language program (I'm supposed to move on to also doing math and reading soon, and teach older kids as well).

The National Institute For Direct Instruction (NIFDI) placed me here. It usually takes a minimum of two years for someone to get really good at presentation, but they figure I should be able to do it in one.

They're just setting up a program for talented DI teachers to learn design by becoming coauthors on new programs, and that's obviously where I'm aiming to go next year right after the annual summer DI conference.

Anyway, thing about the internship is that they've never had an unpaid foreign intern floating around before, so I end up as the third teacher in the room (the usual set-up at City Springs is a two teacher team. One of them is technically just a 'paraprofessional', but their instructional responsibilities are the same at a DI charter school). So I have to make sure I'm actually working on the things I need to be working on rather than getting side-tracked into some not really DI-relevant task.

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