Simple investing for a complete beginner? (Just… developing world index funds?)

-5 Owen_Richardson 22 August 2013 07:15AM

[EDIT: Through conversation with Rolf Andreassen below, it has been brought to my attention that I am simply completely and irretrievably insane.

Sane and well-measured advice is therefore wasted on me, and I just wanted to edit in this notice here so that other well-meaning folks don't get tricked into wasting their time trying to talk sense into a total nutcase like me. :)

(I appreciate all y'all, though. ^^ ) ]

So my dad set up a trust fund for me when I was a kid, and I've got 13k (CAD) now, which I am going to be taking direct control of.

Now, I have no interest in making a deep study of investment. I have a life to live and dealing with money is boring.

The only thing more boring than dealing with money, is dealing with a lack of money, and so I want to optimize the time and thought I spend avoiding that down to a minimum.

Four things occur to me:

1) Taking the naive and sparse knowledge I have of this area, basically just stuff I‘ve randomly osmosis’d up, this is my train of thought:

Markets are essentially random walks with an upward trend?

“Index funds” are magic boxes that you put money in and your money will grow at the same rate of the market that the fund “indexes”?

“Developing world” economies generally grow a lot quicker than those in the “developed world”?

(This makes sense to me. Places like the US, Canada Europe, etc, already have mature transportation and communication infrastructure. You can't get much economic growth out of doing basic stuff like building a new highway here, but in, like, some African region that has previously been served by, I dunno, jungle-donkeys, it makes a proportionally much bigger difference.)

There are a few countries where “developing” is a euphemism for “totally messed up”, but in general it really does mean “growing”?

And there are enough of these places over the world, and they're independent enough, that natural disasters/political trouble/etc in a few of them still leave a consistent and high rate of average growth?

So shouldn't I just put all my money in a fund that “indexes” all these "developing" economies together?

2) My dad set up this trust fund with a bank that has a bunch of big expensive physical buildings for some reason. I recently read a letter from them saying that they will charge a $100 yearly fee for having less than 15k in an account.

Are there better options I should be taking than opening my own account with an institution that thinks it makes sense to charge me a hundred bucks for not being rich?

3) Me and muflax are actually going to go work full time on developing [this totally amazing educational technology that will completely revolutionize human civilization but you have no reason to care about that until you've seen a demo in action so nevermind].

We might spend as much as a year (yeah, that's outside-view calibrated) working on it until we have something we can make a living off of while continuing development.

We think we can get total living costs for a year down into the 5k..10k range… maybe even lower. We're going to be living in the UK, because of reasons.

So… can I leave this measly 13k in an investment account and still draw out of it for monthly costs?

4) Or is this whole “investing” thing something I should even be bothering with at all right now?

Should I just pop out the whole sum into a savings account that I can draw from as I need, and worry about reinvesting whatever is left over then, a year from now, after we have obviously started on our way to becoming rich and famous?

Meetup : Baltimore meetup

2 Owen_Richardson 29 September 2011 02:37AM

Discussion article for the meetup : Baltimore meetup

WHEN: 01 October 2011 02:00:00PM (-0400)

WHERE: "Chocolatea Cafe", 3811 Canterbury Road Baltimore, MD

I know this is short notice, but me and Mark Eichenlaub at least will be meeting up this Saturday. =]

Note that the venue has changed from last time.

Discussion article for the meetup : Baltimore meetup

Meetup : BALTIMORE: Anyone wanna meet up?

2 Owen_Richardson 12 September 2011 02:57AM

Discussion article for the meetup : BALTIMORE: Anyone wanna meet up?

WHEN: 17 September 2011 03:00:00PM (-0400)

WHERE: "One World Cafe", 100 West University Parkway, Baltimore, MD

If you're interested but have problems with the location (first cafe google maps said was near my homestay) or time (pretty much randomly selected 'reasonable' seeming hour), please just tell me!

I'm from Canada, by the way, interning as an elementary teacher at a Direct Instruction school here in Baltimore while studying Theory of Instruction. The first topic I'm likely to discuss is educational science, of course, but I'm open to anything. =]

Oh, and please do leave a comment if you're actually in Baltimore!

 

Discussion article for the meetup : BALTIMORE: Anyone wanna meet up?

On Eliezer's post "The Cluster Structure of Thingspace"

-2 Owen_Richardson 04 September 2011 05:02AM

I would like to request feedback on this comment, please.

I would also like to point out the cross-reference with jsalvatier's "What are good topics for literature review prizes?"

 

Another treatment of Direct Instruction getting more into the technical details of the theory

-3 Owen_Richardson 02 September 2011 06:06AM

[NOTE: This was a discussion post asking if anyone would mind giving feedback on a very rough draft in progress.

If you are downvoting it because you do not want to see discussion posts asking for feedback like this, then by all means, that's a valid use of a downvote.

But if you are downvoting it in order to express your opinion of the quality of the draft, I urge you to reconsider]

 

This is another work in progress coming at the DI issue from a somewhat different direction. It's contained in the comments of the original, and I'm posting this to ask for more wonderful beta-reader critics to tell me if it's a step in the right direction. (It's still very informal writing, but it's the ideas I'm dealing with now.)

And about what I'm looking for in the LW audience, someone asked me in a private message:

... who is the audience, here? Are you hoping that LW readers are school administrators, who will introduce DI into their schools? Are you hoping that they are teachers, who will introduce DI into their classes? Are you hoping that they are students, who will be able to seek out instructors using DI? ...

I'm personally interested because I have an interest in alternate education methods; I think the method sounds promising and what I know matches up with what I know about solid epistemology. The people who are interested in epistemic rationality (another group you could tailor posts towards) would probably be interested in learning about epistemic methods that are quantitatively superior to others.

And I said:

Oh, I dunno about DI involving "epistemic methods that are quantitatively superior to others". The founder recently wrote a book about what John Stuart Mill could have done for education, so that's the epistemology that DI is applying.

So actually, another reason I keep using Newton's laws analogies is that I suspect there's an analogious 'general relativity' to be found.

So what I really want is for the people from the LW audience to learn DI theory themselves, because I think they could improve the theory.

Well, that's the major part of what I want that's important here. I also had to add:

you remember how I mentioned 'creative strategic twists' [for how we could help DI win, and how DI could help us win], and indicated that the inspiration for that came from comparing the Michel Thomas lessons with DI proper (the internal details of each and their separate histories)?

That's another long-inferential distance topic...

But that's not important here (except to disclose that is where I'm coming from). LWers would first have to understand DI to fully grasp that. And I am significantly less certain of my current beliefs about those 'strategic twists' (although still pretty certain), and LWers proficient in DI would be the best to evaluate the ideas.

Partial rewrite of the "Direct Instruction" thing

8 Owen_Richardson 01 September 2011 04:00AM

So yeah, "Scientifically optimizing education: Hard problem, or solved problem? Introducing the Theory of Direct Instruction". Probably not gonna go down in history as my best piece of writing ever, to say the least.

Clearly I need to fix that. As an initial measure, I added some notes addressing key points and problems to the beginning as a much shorter replacement to the original post, and recommended the new reader not attempt to slog through the original below that unless they're strangely compelled.

I felt that the most sensible context for this would be at the beginning of the original post, so I put it there and put up this post as a notification of that. (If this somehow breaks some sort of rule of etiquette or style, please just tell me and I'll rectify it most snappily.)

Thank you for your patience.

Scientifically optimizing education: Hard problem, or solved problem? Introducing the Theory of Direct Instruction

18 Owen_Richardson 31 August 2011 05:28AM

Re-edited to remove/integrate much of the added notes - Sep 5th:

This is a long post, and it was a first attempt to simply start trying to explain the whole topic, and see what kind of mistakes I made in the communication.

I did indeed make many mistakes, and started to feel that I should ask people not to read this original attempt at first, and so posted added notes to the beginning to say so and try to clear up the worst confusions.

But now that my audience is starting to close the inferential gap themselves thanks to amazingly wonderful people like Misha with “What Direct Instruction Is”, I think important points that I tried to express in this original foray might start to become more transparent to that audience.

It's still a very long post, with lots of new terminology, and, as Alicorn said, “sales-y enthusiasm'.

If you do read it, I must ask that you please don't skim, giving me the benefit of a doubt that anything confusing or nonsensical seeming might actually be something that's important and meaningful in some non-obvious way that you do not yet understand, and that some of the 'sales-y enthusiasm' and “applause lights” may be have been intended to serve some useful purpose.

Again, please don't skim (although it is completely my fault if you feel like skimming!), because I just don't know how to do any better until I get more feedback on how the complete whole of what I wrote is understood.

If you do start skimming, and give up, just tell me where you did so.

[The “added notes” from the first edit I've removed, and will go through at a later time to extract anything that was original and useful and integrate it into the post itself or whatever.]

Thank you.

Begin original:

 

continue reading »

Ending British Columbia's anti-cryonics law

7 Owen_Richardson 12 June 2011 07:18AM

[Edit: I did not mean to post this, just save it as a draft (I only remember pressing the 'save and continue' button, not the 'submit' button. That shouldn't've posted it, right?).

Anyway, that's why it dissolves into slightly cryptic point form notes to myself at the end. Don't have the time right the now to flesh it out, so I'm just leaving it as is.]


I just noticed that there is no facebook group with this aim. I would like to create one. I feel that it *might* be a way to finally get enough 'special interest/human rights' force concentrated on the problem to fix it, if the presentation is done well.

Would anyone like to help me write the group description and accompanying information, optimizing for effectiveness?

Such a group would have two main audiences, and two main purposes:

 

1 - For those who already understand and support cryonics, it would be a means to coordinate action and share information.

2 - For those who have never really thought about cryonics before, but may well be open to the idea, it would serve as an introduction and hopefully cause them to join the first group.

 

As regards the first group, the only major point to stress that springs to my mind is the importance of keeping their *effectiveness* foremost in mind when taking their actions, which mostly just means reminding them to be very friendly, polite, and pleasant while pestering and trying to educate the bureaucrats and politicians.

But for the second group, well, I don't need to describe the difficulty in leading people to understanding across this particular inferential distance. How to do it in a snappy, engaging way?

 

 

- The essential human issues at the root here: Hope and love, and freedom.

- That the group is intended for people in BC and people with friends and family here put in danger by the law.

- technical skepticism

- moral confusion

- image. Narrative, short story

 

Resources I am thinking of drawing on are:

Scientists' Open Letter on Cryonics

Ben Best's FAQs

This page on BC's anti-cryonics law at the Canadian Cryonics Society

This article in the Tyee

letter to mom after Sandy's death

 

Victoria BC meetup Monday May 23rd 5pm

2 Owen_Richardson 14 May 2011 06:57AM

This little town doesn't seem to have much in the way of a lesswronger presence (search turns up me and one other user who hasn't been active since 2009), but damnit I'm here right now and I may as well give it a try!

Therefore I'll be at the Starbucks near the Market on Yates on Monday May 23rd from 5 pm to at least 6 pm.

I'll be reading a copy of "Theory of Instruction: Principles and Applications". Or writing on my laptop I guess. Actually, let's make this easy: Whatever I'm doing, I'll be wearing a black tricorn hat with gold piping and a giant white plume.

I'll be there anyway, but if any Victorianites out there are reading this, please, please do contact me, especially if you want to come but need a different time and/or location.

All right, here's hoping to see you there, all my hypothetical Victoria lesswrong homies!

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