Comment author: tog 01 May 2014 02:38:30PM *  4 points [-]

[Thread for making and discussing predictions]

To expand on my predictions, I think that global poverty will be the most popular cause except among those who say they heard of EA through LessWrong (whose numbers I'll be interested to see). I also think that skepticism/atheism will be the other social movement with which most identify, and atheism the most popular religious position. In the link Jacy Anthis has given a full set of predictions to test his accuracy.

Comment author: Pat 01 May 2014 10:49:46PM *  4 points [-]

Here are my predictions (on Prediction Book):

Comment author: [deleted] 29 March 2014 04:08:53AM 1 point [-]

It seems like these types of skills are just as useful coming from a non-effective altruist as an effective altruist. And there are already communities that offer up this type of service (http://timebanks.org/). Thus, you would get more utility building of those communities, than of siphoning of people to an empty community.

Why not spend your time promoting these communities to effective altruists?

In response to comment by [deleted] on Introducing Skillshare.im
Comment author: Pat 29 March 2014 04:51:59AM *  4 points [-]

One reason is that I didn't know they existed—I'd never heard of time banking before. Perhaps participation in existing time-banking communities would allow people to draw on a larger pool of people, and there would be a smaller chance that these communities would disappear. And unless you're traveling to one of a few large cities, you're more likely to find gratis accommodations on Couchsurfing.

On the other hand, I can think of a few advantages specific to having a sharing site targeted at effective altruists. First, it seems that time banks (at least the ones listed on the site you linked to) are local organizations. So you'd have to live in a community with a vibrant time bank to take advantage of it.

Second, it seems that most of the time banks listed in the directory are moribund. For example, the Berkeley group's most recent exchange (if I'm interpreting this correctly) occurred over eight weeks ago. Many of the local chapters have a member count in the single digits or have never recorded an exchange. Some exchanges, however, are quite active (e.g., those in Los Angeles and Oakland), and they might be worth checking out if you live nearby.

Third, time banking is supposed to be reciprocal. That might mean that people who don't have much to offer (because they're young, busy, etc.) might have difficulty participating in them. Effective altruists don't have to worry as much about shirking, as long as what they're doing advances the goals of effective altruism. The lack of a need for reciprocity might help facilitate exchanges, though it's possible for people who aren't effective altruists to take advantage of those who are.

Comment author: Pat 10 January 2013 06:23:31PM *  3 points [-]

If you drink coffee, you could buy a fully automatic coffee maker ($800). Or if you do it just for the stimulation, you could use caffeine tablets instead.

Leaving your computer on or in standby mode is often better than turning it on and off. Laptops use about one watt in sleep mode, and desktops typically use no more than five (source). Even if you left your computer in sleep mode for 24 hours a day, the yearly electric bill would be pretty small. If your computer uses

  • 1 watt: 4.3 kWh, $1.05
  • 5 watts: well, it would be five times that, or $5.25

(with an electricity price of $0.12/kWh)

On the other hand, leaving your computer on all the time might shorten its lifespan.

Comment author: Pat 09 January 2013 04:27:48AM *  1 point [-]

You could get laser hair removal instead of shaving. Calculations assume a discount rate of 10%.

Financial cost of hair removal

  • $1,500 to $4,000 for initial treatment
  • $300 a year for a touch-up treatment (PV ~ $3,000)

Total financial cost: $4,500 to $7,000

Time cost of hair removal

  • six treatments at 1.5 hours per treatment (.5 hours for the treatment itself, plus commuting, scheduling, waiting, etc.): 9 hours
  • annual touch-up treatments: 1.5 hours/year

Total time cost: 21 hours

Time cost of shaving

  • .25 hours/week = 13 hours/year (PV ~ 130 hours)

Cost per hour: $41 to $64

Comment author: Pat 09 January 2013 04:04:56AM 0 points [-]

You could install a bidet on your toilet. Disclosure: I've never used a bidet.

Cost

  • Bidet: $750
  • Installation: $250 (a guess)

Total: $1,000

Time savings (assuming 1.5 bowel movements/day)

  • Hand washing: 60s per day (40s/BM)
  • Read a book or use your phone instead of wiping: 45s/day (30s/BM)
  • Reduced need to clean backside when showering: 10s/day

Total: 6 hours/year (PV ~ 37 hours, assuming a 10% discount rate and a bidet lifetime of 10 years)

Cost per hour: $27

Comment author: Pat 09 January 2013 03:50:03AM *  0 points [-]

If you wear glasses, you could get LASIK surgery. (I haven't done this.) According to these speculative calculations, the cost per hour of time saved is somewhere between less than zero (not having to get new glasses saves you money) and $55. But you can get the benefits only once, unfortunately.

Discount rate: 10%

Financial cost of glasses

  • cost of a pair of glasses each year: $15–$400
  • addional cost for updating prescription yearly: $50 (?)

total: $65–$450/year (PV ~ $650–$4500)

Time cost of glasses

  • putting on and taking off glasses: 20s/day
  • cleaning glasses: 20s/day
  • looking for misplaced glasses: 20s/day
  • updating prescription, shopping for glasses, ordering: 3 hours/year

total: 9 hours/year (PV ~ 90 hours)

Financial cost of LASIK

  • cost of LASIK surgery and follow-up appointments: $2,000–$5,000

Time cost of LASIK

  • scheduling, filling out paperwork, counseling, travel, etc. (pre-surgery): 3 hours
  • surgery: .5 hours
  • four checkups at 1.5 hours/checkup (including transit time)

total: 9.5 hours (PV ~ 9.5 hours)

total: $2,000–$5,000

net financial cost: -$2,500 to $4,350

net time savings: ~80 hours

per-hour cost: negative to ~$55/hour

Comment author: Pat 11 November 2012 09:51:24PM *  5 points [-]

What are the plans for EAA? When will it be spun off? Is there much interest in it from new members of 80k? Is anybody other than Eitan Fischer (who's in school) working on it at the moment?

Are you getting any other emails like this one?

I sent him one, except it had about two questions instead of sixteen. Thanks to Giles for asking all these questions and to Will for agreeing to make the answers public.

Comment author: David_Gerard 11 November 2012 08:06:03PM 3 points [-]

From someone who's been involved in charities for decades:

For pity's sake, don't earmark. It's a goddamn pain in the arse to deal with and can greatly increase inefficiency in dealing with the tainted money. If you trust them enough to give them money, trust them enough to work out what to do with it.

If the charity has set things up so you can donate to a particular programme, do that; otherwise, just donate, possibly with a suggestion.

Comment author: Pat 11 November 2012 09:33:39PM 3 points [-]

The donate pages for 80k and GWWC both say "Whichever way you donate, please also notify will.crouch@80000hours/givingwhatwecan.org, in order that we can restrict your donation to 80,000 Hours/Giving What We Can." So it seems that they're OK with earmarking.