I'm there.

Nice article, have a karma!

There's a lot of information there, I'd suggest perhaps using this article as the basis for a four part series one each area. The content is non-obvious, so having the extra space to really break down the inferential distance into small steps so that the conclusions are intuitive to non-rationalists would be useful.

(As an aside I suspect that writing for the CFAR blog is right now reasonably high impact for the time investment. Personally I found CFAR's apparent radio-silence since September unnerving and it's possible that it was part of the reason the matching fundraiser struggled. Despite Anna's excellent post on CFAR's progress the lack of activity may have caused people to feel as though CFAR was stagnating and thus be less inclined to part with their money on a System 1 level.)

Possible typos.

1. "And the difference might not that amount to that much." Extra "that"

2. "Think through each step of what you’ll be doing, and try to avoid relying on your brains associations with whole events." Should be "brain's associations"

3. "So, how successful, do you predict, you’ll be able to influence your predictions?" I'm having trouble parsing this sentence.

This was great!

I'd love to see the solutions (make it near term, break it down step by step, wait for the correct state) broken out just like the problems were... it almost felt like they were all jammed in at the end.

I want to get the most amount of candy with the least amount of walking.

My 9-year-old son on Halloween.

The Valley of Bad Rationality at work again. Improved optimisation skills and strategic awareness applied to increase the amount of candy consumed while reducing physical exercise!