Comment author: Clarity 14 September 2016 12:20:28AM 1 point [-]

Is the NEET lifestyle of welfare more pleasant for the individual than a working life?

Comment author: Pimgd 14 September 2016 12:27:40PM 3 points [-]

Needs expanding. Based on my personal experience with long vacations ... Yes, provided you work at home.

Just sitting on your ass all day playing games is pretty close to sticking a wire up your head. That's a lonely existence. It can be fun, if you turn your self-reflection off and just let yourself go. If you have enough cash, you can buy and watch what you want. But that's bound to be unhealthy, so I guess you'll end up with health problems at some point.

"Not in Employment, Education or Training" is not a bad thing. Retired people are NEET, kind of. And they can do just fine. So imagine what retired people would do. Maybe go on a world trip. Maybe have quiet rest? I think it's a great idea to position yourself as such that you don't need to work to live (UBI woooo), but to then go and just sit on your ass all day and just consume is boring.

Don't be a shut-in your whole life. Don't be a workaholic your whole life. Experience more.

In response to Hedging
Comment author: Pimgd 05 September 2016 09:26:01AM 0 points [-]

I don't know how I would integrate this with my programming work, where it is VERY important my inner voice differentiates between "I know" and "I think" and "It seems like" - were I to use more factual statements, I'd go wrong faster and end up taking longer to debug things...

Comment author: Lumifer 28 July 2016 05:33:24PM *  1 point [-]

This SAME entity then also needs the ability to cure cancer. To me, adding abilities like this incurs complexity penalties on a pretty big scale.

This says that if you are, say, an Inca ruler and you hear about Spanish conquistadors, the fact that they can ride weird beasts AND shoot fire out of metal sticks AND do a lot of other supernatural-looking stuff implies that you should disbelieve their existence -- probably not a good idea.

In general terms, the complexity penalties you're are talking about are justified only if these different abilities are unrelated. But if, instead, all of them have a common cause (e.g. massive technological superiority), the penalties no longer apply.

Comment author: Pimgd 29 July 2016 07:20:10AM 0 points [-]

I see.

Comment author: Wind 28 July 2016 11:36:56AM 0 points [-]

You don't only need evidence that the fantastical events were caused, you also need evidence they were caused by the same thing if you wish to attribute them to that same thing.

Assume I observe X, Y, Z and form three hypotheses

  • A: All of X, Y, Z had causes
  • B: All of X, Y, Z had different causes
  • C: All of X, Y, Z had the same cause

A obviously has highest probability since it includes B and C as special cases. However, which one of B and C do you think should get complexity penalty over the others?

In you story:

Yes, it can be extended to belief in God. Provided we restrict "God" to a REALLY TINY thing. As in, gee, a couple thousand years ago, something truly fantastic happened - it was God! I saw it with my own eyes! You can keep believing there was, at that point in time, an entity causing this fantastic thing. Until you get other evidence, which may never happen. What you CANNOT do is say, "hey, maybe this 'God' that caused this one fantastic thing is also responsible for creating the universe and making my neighbor win the lottery and my aunt get cancer and ..." That's unloading a huge complexity on an earlier belief without paying appropriate penalties.

The relevant comparison is: Given that God did X, what is the probability that God also did Y and Z, verses God did not do those things.

P(God did Y, Z | God did X) = P(God did X,Y, Z) / P(God did X)

v.s.

P(God did not do Y, Z | God did X) = P(God did X, and something other than God did Y, Z) / P(God did X)

I am uncertain about how to correctly apply complexity penalty, but I do believe that the multi explanation model "God did X, and something other than God did Y, Z" should get complexity penalty over the sing explanation model "God did X, Y, Z".

The belief "God caused some tiny thing, a couple thousand years ago", should correlated with the belief "God did this big thing right now". This is why I firmly believe that God did not cause some tiny thing, a couple of thousand years ago.

Comment author: Pimgd 28 July 2016 03:55:57PM 0 points [-]

Phrased like this, I see what you're getting at; but in my mind, I was describing extraordinary, but different events. Say, miracle cures and miracle plagues or whatever. A whole bunch of locusts and your aunt being cured of cancer most likely have different causes. In that case, you first have to postulate an entity which can summon a bunch of locusts. The actual summoning need not be magical or spontaneous in nature, only their appearance. So keeping a bunch of locusts hidden away whilst feeding them (somehow), before releasing them like a plague, would do.

This SAME entity then also needs the ability to cure cancer. To me, adding abilities like this incurs complexity penalties on a pretty big scale. Especially when you start adding other stuff and start scaling this influence over time (same entity responsible for actions many thousands of years ago and events now)

Comment author: Arielgenesis 28 July 2016 06:04:58AM 0 points [-]

God is a messy concept. As a theist, I am leaning more towards the Calvinistic Christianity. Defining God is very problematic because, by definition, it is something, which in it's fullness, is beyond human comprehension.

Could you clarify?

Since ancient time, there are many arguments for and against God (and the many versions of it). Lately, the arguments against God has developed to a very sophisticated extend and the theist is lagging very far behind and there doesn't seem to be any interest in catching up.

Comment author: Pimgd 28 July 2016 10:51:35AM *  0 points [-]

Which is why I use labels such as "an entity" which may or may not be "omniscient" or "omnipotent". You can describe God in terms of labels; If I had a car, and had to describe it, I could say parts of it were made from leather, parts of it were made from metals, parts of it were made from rubber, looking at it gives a grey sensation, but there is also red and white and black...

If God really can do anything and everything then everything is evidence of and evidence against God and you have 0 reason to update on any of the beliefs surrounding God. Which is, once again, why you don't tie 100% probability to things. That includes statements of the nature "God caused this".

Comment author: Arielgenesis 27 July 2016 03:24:57AM 0 points [-]

Thank you for the reply.

My personal answer to the 3 questions is 3 yes. But I am not confident of my own reasoning, that's why I'm here, looking for confirmation. So, thank you for the confirmation.

If we let Eve say "I still think he didn't do it because of his character, and I will keep believing this until I see evidence to the contrary - and if such evidence doesn't exist, I will keep believing this forever" - then yes, Eve is rational

That is exactly what I meant her to say. I just thought I could simplify it, but apparently I lose important points along the way.

Yes, it can be extended to belief in God. Provided we restrict "God" to a REALLY TINY thing.

I am a theist, but I am appalled by the lack of rational apologetic, the abundance of poor ones, and the disinterest to develop a good one. So here I am, making baby steps.

Comment author: Pimgd 27 July 2016 08:00:01AM 1 point [-]

The point is that these days... and I think in the days before that, AND the days before that... ... Okay, so basically since forever, "God" has been such a loaded concept...

If you ask people where God is, some of them will tell you that "God is in everything and anything" (or something to that tune). Now, these people don't have to be right (or wrong!) but that's ... a rather broad definition to me.

One can imagine God as an entity. Like, I dunno, a space alien from an alternative universe (don't ask how that universe was created; I don't know, this is a story and not an explanation). With super advanced technology. So if we then ask "did God create the world" and we (somehow...?) went back in time and saw that, hey, this space alien was somewhere else at the time and, no, the planet formed via other means, then you'd have a definitive answer to that question.

But there are other definitions. God are the mechanics of the universe. So, what you'd call the laws of physics, no, that's just God. That's how God keeps everything going. Why, then, yes, God did create the world! But only because current scientific understanding says "we think physics did it" and then you say "Physics is God".

Anyway, if you want a sane, useful, rational answer to your third question then you must define God. I personally treated God as 1 entity in my earlier answer, which leads to the problem of having to connect events to the same entity (which, when you know very little about that entity, is pretty hard). (If you didn't connect events to that same entity then something else must have caused it, in which case you have multiple probable causes for fantastic events, and you might as well call them Gods individually?)


I don't quite grasp what you mean with the last bit...

I am a theist, but I am appalled by the lack of rational apologetic, the abundance of poor ones, and the disinterest to develop a good one. So here I am, making baby steps.

Could you clarify?

Comment author: Arielgenesis 25 July 2016 05:29:30PM 0 points [-]

The idea of the story is that there are no evidence. Because I think, in real life, sometimes, there are important and relevant things with no evidence. In this case, Adam's innocence is important and relevant to Eve (for emotional and social reasons I presume), but there is no, and there will never be, evidence. Given that, saying: "If there is evidence, then the belief could be falsified." is a kind of cheating because producing new evidence is not possible anymore.

Comment author: Pimgd 26 July 2016 09:36:07AM *  1 point [-]

because producing new evidence is not possible anymore.

Okay...

So, say it turns out that, well, Eve is irrational. Somehow.

Now what? Do we go "neener-neener" at her? What's the point? What's the use that you could get out of labeling this behavior irrational?

Suppose Adam dies and is cryo-frozen. During Eve's life, there will be no resuscitation of Adam. Sometime afterward, however, Omega will arrive, deem the problem interesting and simulate Adam via really really really advanced technology.

Turns out he didn't do it.

Is she now rational because, well, turns out she was right after all? Well, no, because getting the right answer for the wrong reasons is not the rational way to go about things (in general, it might help in specific cases if you need to get the answer right but don't care how).

....

Actually, let me just skip over a few paragraphs I was going to write and skip to the end.

You cannot have 100% confidence interval. Because then your belief is set in stone and it cannot change. You can have a googleplex nines if you want, but not 100% confidence.

Fallacy of argument from probability (if it can happen then it must happen) aside; How is it rational to discard a belief you are holding on shaky evidence if you think with near absolute certainty that no more evidence will arrive, ever? What will you do when there is more evidence? (Hint: Meeting Adam's mother at the funeral and hearing childhood stories about what a nice kid he was is more evidence for his character, albeit very weak evidence - and so are studies that show that certain demographics of the timeperiod that Adam lived in had certain characteristics) You gotta update! (I don't think that fallacy I mentioned applies; if it does, we can fix it with big numbers; if you are to hold this belief everywhere, then... the probabilities go up as it turns from "in this situation" to "in at least one of all these situations")

So to toss a belief aside because you think there will be no more evidence is the wrong action to me. You can park a belief. That is to take no action. Maintain status quo. No change in input is no change in output. But you do NOT clear the belief.

Let me put up a strawman - I'll leave it up to others to see if there's something harder underneath - if you hold this action - "I think there will be no more evidence, and I am not very confident either way, so I will discard the output" to be the rightful action to take, how do you prevent yourself from getting boiled like a frog in a pan (yes, that's a false story - still, I intend the metaphorical meaning: how do you stop yourself from discarding every bit of evidence that comes your way, because you "know" there to be no more evidence?)

In my opinion, to do as you say weakens or even destroys the gradual "update" mechanism. This leads to less effective beliefs, and thus is irrational.


Were we to now look at the 3 questions, I'd answer..

Again, Eve is irrational because she says it cannot be falsified. If we let Eve say "I still think he didn't do it because of his character, and I will keep believing this until I see evidence to the contrary - and if such evidence doesn't exist, I will keep believing this forever" - then yes, Eve is rational.

The second question, yes via this specific example. Here it can, thus it can.

Yes, it can be extended to belief in God. Provided we restrict "God" to a REALLY TINY thing. As in, gee, a couple thousand years ago, something truly fantastic happened - it was God! I saw it with my own eyes! You can keep believing there was, at that point in time, an entity causing this fantastic thing. Until you get other evidence, which may never happen. What you CANNOT do is say, "hey, maybe this 'God' that caused this one fantastic thing is also responsible for creating the universe and making my neighbor win the lottery and my aunt get cancer and ..." That's unloading a huge complexity on an earlier belief without paying appropriate penalties.

You don't only need evidence that the fantastical events were caused, you also need evidence they were caused by the same thing if you wish to attribute them to that same thing.

Comment author: Pimgd 25 July 2016 11:52:31AM *  0 points [-]

Card 29 has a typo. "hte game of hide and go seek". So does card 32: " had been debunked adn proven false"

Comment author: Pimgd 25 July 2016 10:26:39AM 1 point [-]

Eve is irrational. But that's because she has suddenly forgotten her earlier statements. "show me the video recording, then I would believe". If there is evidence, then the belief could be falsified. That's what Eve should have said.

Comment author: MrMind 04 July 2016 10:22:21AM *  1 point [-]

Recently I've caught myself delving more into games that are basically programming puzzles.
This means games that have acceptable but not overtly superb graphics, and they all happen in stages, each a different and more difficult puzzle than the previous, all to be solved by programming the interactions of some basic components.
Here's the ones I like the most.

Windows / Steam:

  • SpaceChem (about producing chemical components in space)
  • TIS-1000 (computation to be done on a parallel grid, highly textual)
  • Infinifactory (constructing things for your alien overlords)

Android:

  • The sequence (just put the thing at point A in point B five times, with only these tiny simple robots).
Comment author: Pimgd 05 July 2016 07:37:00AM 0 points [-]

SpaceChem eventually became too hard for me - I don't really have a methodlogical approach to the game, I'm just very good at seeing where the atoms will go. As a result, it all looks like a jumbled mess that is not reusable. The final level is too hard for the slow approach, which means that due to the difficulty spike, I've never actually finished the game.

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