Punoxysm

Instead of prognosticating on AGI/Strong AI/Singularities, I'd like to discuss more concrete advancements to expect in the near-term in AI. I invite those who have an interest in AI to discuss predictions or interesting trends they've observed. This discussion should be useful for anyone looking to research or work in...

What is something you used to believe, preferably something concrete with direct or implied predictions, that you now know was dead wrong. Was your belief rational given what you knew and could know back then, or was it irrational, and why? Edit: I feel like some of these are getting...

Evidence: 1. The obsession with precise times in the last few chapters, the prominence of time-turners in the plot in general, and Harry's vow to revive Hermione all indicate use of time-turners in the final arc. 2. EY has involved many of his favorite ideas and themes (especially from the...

This is an offshoot of a thread I made earlier, but which wasn't eliciting the sort of responses I'd hoped for. So let me pose a clearer question with less potential to get people on watchlists. What legal ways of making a profit are the most anti-altruistic, the most damaging...

Edit: The purpose of this question is not to make the world worse, but to see whether we actually have concrete ideas of what would, and my guess is that most of us don't, not in a really concrete way. From the downvotes I'm wondering if everyone else is thinking...

TL;DR A serious possibility is that the first AGI(s) will be developed in a Manhattan Project style setting before any sort of friendliness/safety constraints can be integrated reliably. They will also be substantially short of the intelligence required to exponentially self-improve. Within a certain range of development and intelligence, containment...