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Comment author: skilesare 07 April 2015 01:52:18AM 0 points [-]

Yes...the kickstarter portion is a bit of a mess. I threw it together at the last minute when I was invited to pitch my ideas. I'm more to net rested in feed back on the math and concepts behind it. I think I understand bayes and am trying to apply it. This seemed like the right place to seek guidence.

Comment author: Punoxysm 07 April 2015 02:09:31AM 3 points [-]

After looking at the website, it's still a very complicated idea, it's totally unclear what a small-scale implementation is supposed to look like (i.e. what impact does this have in a small community of enthusiasts, what incentive does anyone have to adopt it, etc.).

I can't evaluate your math because I don't see any math in your website or kickstarter. I see references to Bayes and Information theory, but no actual math.

Comment author: Punoxysm 07 April 2015 01:37:40AM 6 points [-]

Not particularly urgent. An understanding of how to update priors (which you can get a good deal of with an intro to stats and probability class) doesn't help dramatically with the real problem of having good priors and correctly evaluating evidence.

In response to Efficient Food
Comment author: Punoxysm 07 April 2015 01:30:59AM 1 point [-]

The big pizza delivery chains have expanded their menus over time, from pretty-much-pizza to sandwiches, desserts, wings, salads, etc.

So it seems efficiency is not the driver.

Comment author: skilesare 06 April 2015 09:41:13PM 0 points [-]

I'd love some feedback on the latest update on my kickstarter. Would anyone be willing to make sure I haven't misstated the math and/or concepts?

Hypercapitalism: Information Theory and Bayes


Comment author: Punoxysm 07 April 2015 01:25:14AM 8 points [-]

I think you have failed to consider the requirements of Kickstarter. You need to really think about your marketing, deliver as clear and slick a statement of your project as possible, and imitate as much as you can of successful similar kickstarter projects.

Your video is neither clear nor slick (verbal explanation with random camera angles is a poor way for most people to absorb information), and needs visual aids at least.

I watched a couple minutes of explanation, and then zoned out. Sorry.

I'm guessing from your low funds that you've also done little to evangelize your concept, or have been unsuccessful in doing so.

I also think Kickstarter for coding projects is a high barrier, since so much programming is volunteer open-source projects, people wonder why they'd donate extra. And you offer no rewards for backers, a key element of Kickstarter's concept.

You also say in the first paragraph "the project isn't going well".

Comment author: 9eB1 16 March 2015 06:48:27AM 5 points [-]

This is interesting. They have been operating iPredict since 2008, but apparently got a "no action" letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in the US to allow US participants in the market (as long as they limited the markets in the same way Iowa University does for the IEM) 4 months ago.

The market isn't particularly efficient. For example, if you bought "No" on all the presidential candidates to win, it would cost $16.16, but would be worth at least $17 for a 5% gain. Of course, after paying the 10% fee on profits and 5% withdrawal fee you would be left with a loss, which is why this opportunity still exists.

Comment author: Punoxysm 18 March 2015 04:54:20AM 4 points [-]

It's not really arbitrage if you lose money.

Comment author: Punoxysm 10 March 2015 06:59:55AM 2 points [-]

I think the same essential abuses that exist with debt exist here, so time-limitation (say equity stops yielding returns after 15-20 years, and can be discharged by bankruptcy) is important.

I worry about abuses when the equity stake is high. If you're a mentor, and your investment decides they don't really want to prioritize income maximization, what will you do?

Would the way to optimize returns involve hiring those you've invested in yourself (or arranging some convenient swap, if such direct employment is forbidden), and perhaps result in a system that looks either nepotistic or like indentured servitude?

Most of my objections melt away with shorter term investments. Still, equity is a much more natural fit on the project/business level.

And taking on low-earning degrees isn't particularly an information issue. It's a people-make-poor-decisions-at-18 issue. Data about majors' earnings are readily available.

Comment author: shminux 20 February 2015 05:54:39AM *  1 point [-]

You are asking good questions, however your original argument, that Americans don't ask them because discussing money is taboo, is hardly correct. If you take a society where people openly discuss theirs and each other's salaries, savings and budgets, all the same questions remain.

Oh, and as for the concept of ownership in general, it almost never makes sense unless you love both the concept of owning something and the thing you own. Renting a boat is cheaper and less time-consuming unless you sail daily. Tying your funds in real estate for non-business/investment/tax purposes only makes sense if working on your place brings you joy. Owning cars only makes sense if you are willing to drive an older model and/or like to tinker, otherwise leasing is cheaper and more flexible. Note that most other items on your list are not ownership: an insurance policy, donation, hired help etc. But that's a side point.

Comment author: Punoxysm 20 February 2015 08:54:21PM 0 points [-]

Owning a car can have a large advantage over leasing, if you are likely to keep the car a long time. An owned car can also become a second backup car, that it's no big deal if it breaks down) if you get a newer one. Leasing two cars at once is a big waste of money.

Owning versus renting a home is not clear cut at all. Renting a house is a huge money pit unless you are frequently moving, and renting an apartment vs. owning a house is often not comparable in lifestyle. Owning a house gives you the property and flexibility, and can result in longer-term wealth building.

Comment author: Punoxysm 20 February 2015 08:01:22PM 6 points [-]

I used to be a poor student, and while I had a few indulgences I was frugal by virtue of being unable to afford some things. Now I have a job that makes plenty of money, and I spend it on things I would have once considered a poor value or even outright wasteful (uber instead of public transit, order something on Amazon I am unlikely to use).

I imagine if I had much much more money, I'd spend it on things I consider wasteful now.

Comment author: Punoxysm 16 February 2015 10:14:54PM 2 points [-]

So, Harry should probably have figured this out 60 chapters ago.

But we'll cut him some slack.

Comment author: Error 16 February 2015 04:32:14PM 11 points [-]

I've noticed that when I'm working on personal projects or (to a lesser extent) complex games, my motivation to continue working or playing drops off significantly as soon as I've figured out the solution for the project or the optimal strategies for the games. The sensation is a bit like, say, playing an RPG and doing some postgame quest for the Infinity+1 sword, and then not wanting to play anymore once you have it -- I worked hard to get a godweapon but don't have any urge to use it. This is particularly frustrating for programming projects, that tend to get dropped unfinished after the major problems have been solved.

I don't really have any point to make with that. It's just irritating.

Comment author: Punoxysm 16 February 2015 05:54:06PM 9 points [-]

You've dropped out of the lower end of Flow, the optimal level of challenge for a task.

You've solved the intellectually interesting nugget, or believe you have, and now all that's left are the mundane and often frustrating details of implementation. Naturally you'll lose some motivation.

So you have to embrace that mundanity, and/or start looking at the project differently.

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