Comment author: shminux 11 January 2012 09:29:56PM *  12 points [-]

Downvoted for groundless assumptions and for failing to google the basics. There are more, not fewer physical documents produced, because it is easier to produce them, the number of bank tellers has actually increased, etc.

Third, there is a misconception that highly theoretical tasks done by skilled experts will be among the last to go. But due to their theoretical nature such tasks are fairly easy represent virtually.

Name three.

Comment author: PuyaSharif 11 January 2012 10:09:39PM *  8 points [-]

1 Maybe I should clarify: Are the tasks previously done by bank tellers becoming automated? Yes. The fact that the number bank tellers has increased does not invalidate my statement. If there were no internet banking or ATMs then increase would be much larger right? So its trivial to see that the number of bank tellers can increase at the same time as bank teller jobs are lost to automated systems.

2 I'll give you an extreme one. I am a few steps away of earning a degree in theoretical physics specializing in quantum information theory. Theoretical quantum information theory is nothing but symbol manipulation in a framework on existing theorems of linear algebra. With enough resources pretty much all of the research could be done by computers alone. Algorithms could in principle put mathematical statements together, other algorithms testing the meaningfulness of the output and so on.. but that a discussion interesting enough to have its own thread. I just mean that theoretical work is not immune to automation.

Organize all the known mathematics and physics of 1915 in a computer running the right algorithms, the ask it: 'what is gravity?' Would it output General theory of relativity? I think so.

Comment author: shminux 19 November 2011 12:17:57AM *  -3 points [-]

Your assumptions are not just unrealistic, they do not appear to be self-consistent, which is much worse.

"Crime is the breach of rules or laws for which some governing authority (via mechanisms such as legal systems) can ultimately prescribe a conviction." If you abolish punishment, you abolish crime, however silly it sounds. There is no longer a distinction between immoral and illegal. The "crime rate" would be trivially zero. The "moral offense" rate would be hard to calculate without restoring some gradation of immorality, otherwise being rude to a person has the same weight as killing them.

I see no way to create this gradation other than by assigning different punishment to different offenses, in which case we are back to where we started.

A more consistent model would be "what if there is a maximum level of punishment beyond which there is not further reduction in crime rates, and this level is entirely too low to the victim's liking?" When stated this way, the answer is obvious: most people would adjust their expectation of a just punishment to fit that prescribed by the law. This has happened over the ages in nearly every society already (the adjustment, not the punishment optimization), in one direction or another.

For example, capital punishment used to be dispensed rather freely not that long ago. On the other hand, swindling was not a crime until rather recently, and often still isn't. Societies adjust to what the law says, and change the law when there is enough support, however imperfectly.

Given this self-adjustment of expectations of a just punishment, all that remains from your question is "how to find the optimal level of punishment for a given offense?" A zero-punishment offense would be considered an immoral act, all the rest would be forms of infractions/civil offences/crimes.

Comment author: PuyaSharif 19 November 2011 12:22:05AM 1 point [-]

There is nothing wrong with the consistency. At least not in principle. A crime could still be defined as a crime and the punishment could go towards zero asymptotically.

Comment author: RolfAndreassen 18 November 2011 10:51:57PM 6 points [-]

You're asking, then, whether I would trade off the satisfaction of having other tribe-members help me punish the one who hurt me, against the probability of being hurt? In the specific circumstances you have set up, I absolutely would. The reason is that, if there's no punishment for murder, there is presumably likewise no punishment for retaliation in kind. So I don't need my tribe to enact any punishment, I can do it myself, gaining even more satisfaction. This really seems like the best of both worlds: You get to take personal vengeance on anyone who wrongs you, with no dilution through 'official' coalitions; while the probability of actually being wronged goes down.

Comment author: PuyaSharif 18 November 2011 11:05:50PM 0 points [-]

Yes of course, you are free to do it yourself, but it is assumed on the large scale that that even including retaliations (which are crimes), crime rates would go down. And in a society with no punishments would it be rational to do that? (Given that the friends or relatives of that guy could come after you for coming after him for coming after you and so on..?

Comment author: PuyaSharif 29 October 2011 03:49:05PM *  0 points [-]

Good! Now I have two recently published very interesting books to read! Khaneman and Michael Nielsen's Reinventing Discovery. (I'll submit a review M.N.'s this as soon as I've read it)

Comment author: endoself 28 October 2011 03:52:05AM *  1 point [-]

This does not match how I observe my own brain to work. I see the guaranteed million vs the 1% risk of nothing and think "Oh no, what if I lose. I'd sure feel bad about my choice then.". Of course, thinking more deeply I realize that the 10% chance of an extra $4 million outweighs that downside, but it is not as obvious to my brain even though I value it more. If I were less careful, less intelligent, or less introspective, I feel that I would have 'gone with my instinct' and chosen 1A. (It is probably a good thing I am slightly tired right now, since this process happened more slowly than usual, so I think that I got a better look at it happening.)

Comment author: PuyaSharif 28 October 2011 01:36:50PM *  1 point [-]

You see, the reason for why it is discussed as an "effect" or "paradox" is that even if your risk aversion ("oh no what if I lose") is taken into account, it is strange to take 1A together with 2B. A risk averse person might "correctly" chose 1A, but that for person to be consistent in its choices has to chose 2A. Not 1A and 2B together.

My suggestion is that the slight increase in complexity in 1A adds to your risk (external risk+internal risk) and therefore within your given risk profile makes 1A and 2B a consistent combination.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 28 October 2011 12:56:27AM *  1 point [-]

Test method for the hypothesis: Use two samples of people: People who have reason to trust their mathematical ability more (say undergraduate math majors) and people who don't (the general undergrad population). If your hypothesis is correct then the math majors should display less of an irrationality in this context. That's hard to distinguish between them being just more rational in general, so this should be controlled in some way using other tests of rationality levels that aren't as mathematical (such as say vulnerability to the conjunction fallacy in story form)

This seems worth testing. I hypothesize that if one does so and controls for any increase in general rationality one won't get a difference between the math majors and the general undergraduates. Moreover, I suspect but am much less certain chance that even without controlling for any general increase in rationality, the math majors will show about as much of an Allais effect as the other undergrads.

Comment author: PuyaSharif 28 October 2011 01:57:18AM 6 points [-]

One way of testing: Have two questions just like in Allais experiment. Make the experiment in five different versions where choice 1B has increasing complexity but same expected utility. See if 1B-aversion correlates with increasing complexity.

Comment author: fubarobfusco 28 October 2011 01:03:46AM 0 points [-]

Yep. We shouldn't use "rational" when we merely mean "correct", "optimal", "winning", or "successful".

Rationality is a collection of techniques for improvement of beliefs and actions. It is not a destination.

Comment author: PuyaSharif 28 October 2011 01:13:11AM 3 points [-]

'Rational' as in rational agent is a pretty well defined concept in rational choice theory/game theory/decision theory. That is what I refer to when I use the word.

Comment author: PuyaSharif 22 October 2011 05:14:48PM *  4 points [-]

Why interfering and not letting your kid develop his own ways? Answering "How are you?" in detail sounds to me as a fantastic trait of his personality.

When I was 7-years old I stopped calling my parents mom and dad and switched over to calling them by their names. I just couldn't understand the logic of other people call them one thing and me calling the something else. Happily nobody tried to "correct" me according to social rules, and still today it wouldn't cross my mind to call my mother 'mother'!

Comment author: PuyaSharif 22 October 2011 01:39:17PM 0 points [-]

Can you really assume the agent to have a utility function that is both linear in paperclips (which implies risk neutrality) and bounded + monotonic?

In response to Rational toy buying
Comment author: PuyaSharif 19 October 2011 10:50:50PM *  5 points [-]

When I was eight or nine i got one of those electricity/magnetism experiment kits. Boy, did I love that kit! I did that motor, electric bell and electromagnet experiment over and over again for maybe a year and then moved on to building my own electronic stuff from components I found tearing old TV's and radios apart. I soon had a little club at home teaching my friends!

Some years ago when my cousin just had turned nine I got him a kit and hoped to see him become as interested in electronics as I was in his age. But he hardly opened the box, and when I came to visit a year later that kit was long gone and forgotten. It simply could not stand the competition against the video games and toy guns.

I don't want to demotivate you with this story. Just want to say that stimulating a kid towards some interest is much more than buying a set of object for them. The key is the time you spend and how you spend it. Make it a step by step project. Ask her; maybe there are things among your alternatives that are more interesting to her than other. Followup and communicate. Visit museums etc..

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