Comment author: calef 24 October 2014 12:19:10AM *  8 points [-]

Not being in the field, but having experience in making the judgement "Should I read this paper", here are a handful of observations:

For:

  1. The paper has a handful of citations not entirely from the author (http://scholar.google.com/scholar?cites=8141802968877948536&as_sdt=2005&sciodt=0,5&hl=en) but by no means a huge number of citations.

  2. The abstract is remarkably clear (it's clear that this is a slight extension of other author's work), and the jargon-y words are easily figured out based on gentle perusal of the paper.

  3. It looks like this paper is actually also a chapter in a textbook (http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-642-11876-0_8)

Against:

  1. Nearly half of the paper's (very few) references in its reference section are self-citations.

I'd say it's worth reading if you're interested in it. Even the against-point above is more of a general heuristic and not necessarily a bad thing.

Comment author: PuyaSharif 24 October 2014 01:10:47AM 1 point [-]

Even I have a chapter in a textbook, its not a measure of quality :) Conference proceedings sometimes are published as a book, with ISBN and all.

Comment author: gjm 23 October 2014 03:27:11PM 0 points [-]

I have heard it claimed by people who know more about the history of philosophy than I do that it's less than perfectly reliable, and in particular that if Russell's account makes someone look silly then you should consider seriously the possibility that they were distinctly less silly than Russell makes them look.

(But I agree that it's a lovely book, and I wouldn't discourage anyone from reading it.)

Comment author: PuyaSharif 24 October 2014 01:02:51AM 0 points [-]

I guess the bottom line is that, when it comes to fields like philosophy and history, the literature will be heavily biased by the authors, and if one really wants to reduce this bias the one must consult multiple sources.

Comment author: geeky 19 October 2014 02:42:53AM 1 point [-]

Religion and Science by Bertrand Russell was interesting and informative. As a bonus, it's not that long.

A History of Western Philosophy by Bertrand Russell.

(To speed through books, I use VLC player, and then adjust the speed to 1.2X)

Comment author: PuyaSharif 23 October 2014 02:05:15AM 0 points [-]

Wonderful recommendation. I am listening to 'A History of western philosophy' at the moment and I enjoy every single minute of it. Its my clean and cook book. Not only is it a literary masterpiece, it is a well researched account of exactly what the name says. As a bonus you get the whole story commented by one of the greatest philosophers of the 20th century.

Comment author: PuyaSharif 17 January 2012 02:30:38PM 1 point [-]

Academic conferences tends to be very technical, so don't expect to be able fully follow the talks. A review paper

Comment author: [deleted] 13 January 2012 12:18:02PM 0 points [-]

When do you believe the first human-equivalent GAI will be created?

Comment author: PuyaSharif 13 January 2012 02:11:06PM 0 points [-]

By human-equivalent i'd guess you mean equivalent in if not all, but in many different aspects of human intelligence. I wouldn't dare to have an opinion at the moment.

Anyone else?

Comment author: syllogism 13 January 2012 12:03:47PM *  0 points [-]

Are you a grad student? Because I don't know much about theoretical physics, but I find it very hard to believe much academic research could be automated.

I'm a post-doc doing research on computational linguistics. I can't imagine automating my work.

Comment author: PuyaSharif 13 January 2012 02:02:22PM *  1 point [-]

Yes I am, and I'll soon start looking for PhD-positions either in physics or some interdisciplinary field of interest. I know I seem a bit over-optimistic, and that such radical changes may take maybe at least 30-50 years, but I'd guess most of us will be alive by then so its still relevant. My main point is that step by step theoretical tasks will move to the space of computation and the job of the theoretician will evolve to something else. If one day our computers in our computer aided research starts to output suggestions for models, or links between sets of data we haven't thought about comparing wouldn't those results actually be a collaboration between us and that system? You maybe cant imagine automating everything you do, but I'm sure you can imagine parts of your research being automated. That would allow you to use more mental resources for the conceptual and creative part of the research and so on..

Comment author: shminux 12 January 2012 12:09:18AM *  3 points [-]

1 Hindsight bias? Quite a diagnosis there. I never specified the level of those algorithms.

I have, in my reply: probably AGI-level, i.e. too far into the haze of the future to be considered seriously.

2 Which part of theoretical physics is not math?

Probably the 1% that counts the most (I agree, 99% of theoretical physics is math, as I found out the hard way). It's finding the models that make the old experiments make sense and that make new interesting predictions that turn out to be right that is the mysterious part. How would you program a computer that can decide, on its own, that adding the gauge freedom to the Maxwell equations would actually make them simpler and lay foundations for nearly all of modern high-energy physics? That the Landau pole is not an insurmountable obstacle, despite all the infinities? That 2D models like graphene are worth studying? That can resolve the current mysteries, like the High Tc superconductivity, the still mysterious foundations of QM, the cosmological mysteries of dark matter and dark energy, the many problems in chemistry, biology, society etc.? Sure, it is all "symbol manipulation", but so is everything humans do, if you agree that we are (somewhat complicated) Turing machines and Markov chains. If you assert that it is possible to do all this with anything below an AGI-level complexity, I hope that you are right, but I am extremely skeptical.

Comment author: PuyaSharif 12 January 2012 09:39:14PM *  2 points [-]

I agree that the conceptual (non-simply-symbol-processing) part of theoretical physics is the tricky part to automate, and even if I am willing to accept that that last 1% will be kept in the monopoly of human beings, but then that's it; theoretical physics will asymptotically reduce to that 1% and stay there until AGI arrives. Its not bound to change over night, but the change will be the product of many small changes where computers start to aid us not by just doing the calculations and simulations but more advanced tasks where we can input sets of equations from two different sub-field and letting the computers using evolutionary algorithms try different combinations, operate on them and so on and find links. The process could end where a joint theory in a common mathematical framework succeeds to derive the phenomena in both sub fields.

EDIT: Have to add that it feels a bit awkward to argue against the future necessity of my "profession"..

Comment author: Solvent 12 January 2012 04:23:36AM 6 points [-]

Well, one thing that humans are superior at is modeling other humans, and their reactions to things. So to the extent that people do anything at all, they'll probably do that.

For example, music composition, writing fiction, and similar artistic endeavors require that the artist know what people enjoy. I think that that will be done by humans for the foreseeable future.

Also, things where you actually want the person doing it to be a person will continue. Counseling? I dunno.

Comment author: PuyaSharif 12 January 2012 08:29:54PM *  3 points [-]

For example, music composition, writing fiction, and similar artistic endeavors require that the artist know what people enjoy. I think that that will be done by humans for the foreseeable future.

Regarding music composition; there are already algorithms being developed for predicting the potential of a song becoming a hit. Next step could be algorithms that creates the songs by themselves. Its all about optimization with positive feedback. Algorithm: Create a piece of art A such that A has a high probability of satisfying the ones experiencing it. Input statistics about human nature + reaction to previous generations + reactions to man made art of the same sort. Most people wouldn't care about how that piece of art was made. (But I guess this will take a while)

Comment author: jimrandomh 12 January 2012 05:20:30AM *  10 points [-]

My question is: What jobs will be the last ones to go, and why?

If your goal, in asking this question, is to plot a strategy that keeps you employed for as long as possible, then you probably ought to backtrack and look at the goals that's meant to serve. There are better ways to ensure long-term financial security, better ways to maintain a sense of purpose, and better ways to keep busy.

Comment author: PuyaSharif 12 January 2012 12:31:42PM 1 point [-]

My goal was/is to start a discussion around: 1. Strategies today for maximizing probability of being needed in the future. 2 Even more interesting, what tasks are hard/easy to automate and why? 3 The consequences automation will have on global economy. So far, the comments covers a little bit of all.

Comment author: shminux 11 January 2012 10:30:53PM *  8 points [-]

Organize all the known mathematics and physics of 1915 in a computer running the right algorithms, the ask it: 'what is gravity?' Would it output General theory of relativity? I think so.

You have fallen victim to the hindsight bias. The parameter space of the ways of reconciling Special Relativity with Newtonian gravity is quite large, even assuming that this goal would have occurred to anyone but Einstein at that time (well, Hilbert did the math independently, after communicating with Einstein for some time). Rejecting the implicit and unquestionable idea of a fixed background spacetime was an extreme leap of genius. The "right algorithms" would probably have to be the AGI-level ones.

I am a few steps away of earning a degree in theoretical physics specializing in quantum information theory. Theoretical quantum information theory is nothing but symbol manipulation in a framework on existing theorems of linear algebra.

"Theoretical quantum information theory" is math, not a natural science, and math is potentially easier to automate. Still, feel free to research the advances in automated theorem proving, and, more importantly, in automated theorem stating, a much harder task. How would a computer know what theorems are interesting?

Comment author: PuyaSharif 11 January 2012 11:05:26PM 1 point [-]

1 Hindsight bias? Quite a diagnosis there. I never specified the level of those algorithms.

2 Which part of theoretical physics is not math? Experiments confirm or reject theoretical conclusions and points theoretical work in different directions. But that theoretical work is in the end symbol processing - something that computers are pretty good at. There could be a variety of ways for a computer to decide if a theorem is interesting just as for a human. Scope, generality and computability of the theorems could be factors. Input Newtonian mechanics and the mathematics of 1850 and output Hamiltonian mechanics just based on the generality of that framework.

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