Isn't that just technological progress? Except for asking people for advice, nothing else there changes how people think, so it's hard to call it a rationality technique IMO.
I totally disagree! Paper is an amazing tool for changing how people think: it gives them an external source of working memory!
What resources have increasing marginal utility?
Most resources you might think to amass have decreasing marginal utility: for example, a marginal extra $1,000 means much more to you if you have $0 than if you have $100,000. That means you can safely apply the 80-20 rule to most resources: you only need to get some of the resource to get most of the benefits of having it.
At the most recent CFAR workshop, Val dedicated a class to arguing that one resource in particular has increasing marginal utility, namely attention. Initially, efforts to free up your attention have little effect: the difference between juggling 10 things and 9 things is pretty small. But once you've freed up most of your attention, the effect is larger: the difference between juggling 2 things and 1 thing is huge. Val also argued that because of this funny property of attention, most people likely undervalue the value of freeing up attention by orders of magnitude.
During a conversation later in the workshop I suggested another resource that might have increasing marginal utility, namely trust. A society where people abide by contracts 80% of the time is not 80% as good as a society where people abide by contracts 100% of the time; most of the societal value of trust (e.g. decreasing transaction costs) doesn't seem to manifest until people are pretty close to 100% trustworthy. The analogous way to undervalue trust is to argue that e.g. cheating on your spouse is not so bad, because only one person gets hurt. But cheating on spouses in general undermines the trust that spouses should have in each other, and the cumulative impact of even 1% of spouses cheating on the institution of marriage as a whole could be quite negative. (Lots of things about the world make more sense from this perspective: for example, it seems like one of the main practical benefits of religion is that it fosters trust.)
What other resources have increasing marginal utility? How undervalued are they?
Paper. Calendars. Smartphones. Asking other people for advice.
I would love to see these as posts. (I really enjoyed your posts on the CFAR list about human ethics).
What does "The instrumental lens" hint at?
At the time I had that idea I got the impression that some of the people around me were leaning too heavily on what I was calling the "epistemic lens," where your perspective on people is primarily based on their beliefs. I think this is mostly unhelpful, e.g. it can cause people to be snooty about religion for what I see to be no good reason. I think an "instrumental lens," where your perspective on people is primarily based on their actions, is much more helpful. In general I'm a fan of instrumental rationality, rather than epistemic rationality, being the more foundational thing.
That's too bad. Atm I'm planning my next five years of study in maths and related areas - got any quick hints?
What do you want to do?
Wait, so you've tabled this project?
It's extremely tabled. It's chaired.
Mathematics for rationalists
Ooh, what was in this one?
It was going to be something like a guide to what kind of mathematics it might be good for rationalists to learn, but when I started writing the post I realized it was a gigantic project and I didn't care about it enough to actually give it the time it deserved. Sorry!
I keep a list, in Workflowy, of titles for posts almost none of which I've turned into posts. (I generally recommend using Workflowy for capture in this way.) Here are the ones where I at least remember what the point of the post was supposed to be:
- Against ethical consistency
- Against ethical criteria
- Against verbal reasoning
- The instrumental lens
- Maximizing utility vs. the hedonic treadmill
- Mathematics for rationalists
- Beware cool ideas
- How to not die (RomeoStevens already wrote this post though)
Sword Art Online: The premise is completely untenable - thousands of people are trapped in the titular MMORPG - but after the third or fourth episode it becomes a very good anime with a strong female lead. Then the second story arc takes all the good things about the series and removes or reverses them. Alas.
I thought it was pretty but ultimately I couldn't really get into it. Accel World shares a universe (I think it takes place in SAO's future) but I liked it more.
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100% positive on Amazon isn't the same as the 100% trust mean. 100% on amazon really is just a bit higher the 99%. 100% trust can't be expressed by Amazon ratings as the the underlying rating can still be hacked or 'optimized'.
Agreed. The mapping from Amazon ratings to actual trustworthiness is pretty nonlinear.