For unknown reasons, there is a dip in the circadian alerting about 8 hours after the beginning of the cycle. This is why people sometimes experience that “2:30 feeling.”

Hunh. That makes sense. I didn't realize that I was why I feel tired in the afternoon. I thought it was because of eating lunch just before.

I will note that you can't improve the past and have limited ability to improve other countries. So criticism of those won't lead to anything useful. Critical views of where you are right now can lead to effective action. So I don't know if the pattern being criticized is a bad pattern

Taleb is being an idiot here.

“The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality of happiness, and by no means a necessity of life.”

• George Bernard Shaw

So, some Inside View reasons to think this time might be different:

• The results look better, and in particular, some of Google's projects are reproducing high-level quirks of the human visual cortex.

• The methods can absorb far larger amounts of computing power. Previous approaches could not, which makes sense as we didn't have the computing power for them to absorb at the time, but the human brain does appear to be almost absurdly computation-heavy. Moore's Law is producing a difference in kind.

That said, I (and most AI researchers, I believe) would agree that deep recurrent networks are only part of the puzzle. The neat thing is, they do appear to be part of the puzzle, which is more than you could say about e.g. symbolic logic; human minds don't run on logic at all. We're making progress, and I wouldn't be surprised if deep learning is part of the first AGI.

I get the sense that many of the people who have signed up have done it less for the increased survival chances or the sense of comfort, but as a sort of flag waving. It is pretty good signalling that you are opposed to death and part of the ingroup that is opposed to death. Those little medallions are badges of a refusal to submit to the awful thing.