Come on, most every business tracks revenue in great detail. If customers were getting unhappy with the firm's services and rapidly switching en mass, the firm would quickly become very aware, and looking into the problem in great detail.
You complain that my estimating rates from historical trends is arbitrary, but you offer no other basis for estimating such rates. You only appeal to uncertainty. But there are several other assumptions required for this doomsday scenario. If all you have is logical possibility to argue for piling on several a priori unlikely assumptions, it gets hard to take that seriously.
You keep invoking the scenario of a single dominant AI that is extremely intelligent. But that only happens AFTER a single AI fooms to be much better than all other AIs. You can't invoke its super intelligence to explain why its owners fail to notice and control its early growth.
I comment on this paper here: https://www.overcomingbias.com/2022/07/cooks-critique-of-our-earliness-argument.html
That's an exponential with mean 0.7, or mean 1/0.7?
"My prior on is distributed "
I don't understand this notation. It reads to me like "103+ 5 Gy"; how is that a distribution?
It seems the key feature of this remaining story is the "coalition of AIs" part. I can believe that AIs would get powerful, what I'm skeptical about is the claim that they naturally form a coalition of them against us. Which is also what I object to in your prior comments. Horses are terrible at coordination compared to humans, and humans weren't built by horses and integrated into a horse society, with each human originally in the service of a particular horse.
Its not enough that AI might appear in a few decades, you also need something useful you can do about it now, compared to investing your money to have more to spend later when concrete problems appear.
I just read through your "what 2026 looks like" post, but didn't see how it is a problematic scenario. Why should we want to work ahead of time to prepare for that scenario?
Seems to me I spent a big % of my post arguing against the rapid growth claim.