Comment author: Sarokrae 07 April 2013 06:26:51PM 0 points [-]

Re: formatting. Try putting a blank line between bullets.

Tried, doesn't work. Anyone got any ideas?

Comment author: SWIM 10 April 2013 07:32:35AM *  1 point [-]

You also need to put a space between the asterisk and the start of your sentence. Ex.:

* These

* Will

* Be

* Bullet

* Points

  • These

  • Will

  • Be

  • Bullet

  • Points

Comment author: Sarokrae 06 April 2013 12:46:13PM *  0 points [-]

Pushing for more democratic governments in states like Russia and China might also decrease the chances of nuclear war, etc.

How sure are you?

  • Acts of military aggression by the PRC since 1949: About 5.
  • Acts of military aggression by the USSR/Russia in the same period: About 5
  • Acts of military aggression by the USA in the same period: About 7

(I've tried to be upwardly biased on numbers for all three, since it's obviously hard to decide who the aggressors in a conflict are)

  • Wars that the PRC have participated in that were not part of domestic territorial disputes since 1949: 2
  • Likewise for Russia: 5
  • Likewise for the USA: 17

(for the USA and USSR figures I'm counting all of the Cold War as one conflict, and likewise all of the War on Terror)

Sources found here

Edit: What happened to my formatting? I've had this problem before but I've never been able to fix it.

Comment author: SWIM 07 April 2013 12:47:18AM *  1 point [-]

Good point. I think ideally your sample size would be larger, I'm not sure the US is representative of democratic countries.

Re: formatting. Try putting a blank line between bullets.

Comment author: [deleted] 31 March 2013 01:39:22PM 4 points [-]

I agree that if Russia and China became more democratic the world would be a safer place. Liberal democracies are generally better at cooperation, and almost never go to war with one another [see the extensive literature on Democratic Peace Theory].

However like Larks, I think this is a baaaaaad idea. Foreign inteference would either have no effect, or provoke harsh countermeasures.

In response to comment by [deleted] on Existential risks open thread
Comment author: SWIM 01 April 2013 12:04:47AM 0 points [-]

Foreign inteference would either have no effect, or provoke harsh countermeasures.

Seems plausible. Might be a good idea for LWers who were Russia/China natives though.

Comment author: DanArmak 31 March 2013 10:51:33AM 7 points [-]

So pushing for more democratic governments in states like Russia and China

Do you expect democratic governments to engage less in arms races? Or to be less capable of engaging in them (because they might have less domestic/economic/military power)? Or to be less willing to actually deploy the produced arms? Or to be less willing to compete with the US specifically? Or to cause some other change that is desirable? And why?

I ask because "democracy" is an applause light that is often coopted when people mean something else entirely that is mentally associated with it. Such as low corruption, or personal freedom, or an alliance with Western nations.

Comment author: SWIM 31 March 2013 11:59:47PM 0 points [-]

Or to be less willing to compete with the US specifically?

This is what I had in mind. I'd guess that the fact that the US is democratic and China is not ends up indirectly causing a lot of US/China friction. Same is probably true for Russia.

Comment author: ciphergoth 31 March 2013 07:39:32AM *  4 points [-]

A question Katja Grace posed at a CFAR minicamp (wording mine):

Are there things we can do that aren't targeted to specific x-risks but mitigate a great many x-risks at once?

Comment author: SWIM 31 March 2013 10:35:19AM *  0 points [-]

In discussions about AI risks, the possibility of a dangerous arms race between the US and China sometimes comes up. It seems like this kind of arms race could happen with other dangerous techs like nano and bio. Pushing for more democratic governments in states like Russia and China might also decrease the chances of nuclear war, etc.

This article from the Christian Science Monitor suggests that if the Chinese government decided to stop helping North Korea, that might cause the country to "implode", which feels like a good thing from an x-risk reduction standpoint.

How could we push for regime change? Since the cost of living in China is lower than the US, funding dissidents who are already working towards democracy seems like a solid option. Cyberattacks seem like another... how hard would it be to neuter the Great Firewall of China?

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