Comment author: Sblast 03 October 2011 09:20:54PM *  7 points [-]

"It is startling to realize how much unbelief is necessary to make belief possible. What we know as blind faith is sustained by innumerable unbeliefs."

  • Eric Hoffer
Comment author: thomblake 05 May 2011 07:55:01PM 3 points [-]

Simplified & short; If P, then Q. Q. Therefore, P.

While propositional logic may be a special case of Bayesian reasoning, the Bayes's theorem formalization of the scientific method cannot be usefully reduced to propositional logic.

Also, welcome to Less Wrong!. It sounds like you may want to check out Bayes' Theorem and/or Technical Explanation.

Comment author: Sblast 05 May 2011 08:06:40PM 5 points [-]

Thank you for the kind welcome. Will read.

Comment author: Tyrrell_McAllister 05 May 2011 06:24:29PM *  4 points [-]

These postdictions are not predictions, I challenge you actually pose a testable prediction/hypothesis for this pseudo-science or provide real reliable examples. "Just so" stories is an excellent category for this "science".

What about the prediction that people would (statistically) sacrifice themselves for three brothers but not one, or for nine cousins but not three? Would this qualify, provided that these specific numbers were empirically observed? After all, no competing theory makes such precise numerical predictions, to my knowledge. So, if observations were to bear out these numbers, then that would provide strong Bayesian evidence for the evolutionary origins of this kind of altruism.

Also, some of the things that you're calling "postdictions" are not universally acknowledged to be facts — e.g., claims about psychological differences between men and women. So, to the extent that convincing empirical evidence for these differences ultimately arises, wouldn't that qualify as an honest prediction of evolutionary psychology?

Comment author: Sblast 05 May 2011 06:44:13PM *  -1 points [-]

Could you find examples of societies who act differently? Yes. Can culture twist/avoid Kin altruism? If so, I can also invent an evolutionary story to fit that culture just as easily. Does EP explain all of these different cultures via natural selection? I did not find any so far. Evolutionary biology always seems to "explain" a narrow provincial behavior and always in postdictions.

What is satisfying? Something accurate enough avoiding ambiguity, taking in account of all of the facts & and provoing an accurate account of the actual cause of behavior (different cultures, sociology, different possible causes - i.e. actually proving it's bio-psy-evolutionary roots that drive such -detailed behaviors- & not local cultures). I could understand wider impulses as relatively probable & testable, but "sacrifice themselves for three brothers but not one", that is one huge kind of a detalied leap. Since when by the way observation is enough? You need to determine the actual cause from all the other possible ones.

I find this to be a major obstacle for the success of this enterprise as a science.

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