Extremely late follow-up, but [here's](https://xzrmev.clicks.mlsend.com/tl/c/eyJ2Ijoie1wiYVwiOjU3NzkyNixcImxcIjoxMjI1MDA1MzIwMzUxMjcwNDcsXCJyXCI6MTIyNTAwNTMyMTMwNTQ2OTYyfSIsInMiOiJiNmI1NzgwZjJmMmNiNGYxIn0) the post-event survey to give your feedback.
Oh wow, thanks. I think at the time I was overconfident that some more educated Bayesian had worked through the details of what I was describing. But the causality-related stuff is definitely covered by Judea Pearl (the Pearl I was referring to) in his book *Causality* (2000).
Please fill out this survey about your experiences at the meetup:
https://airtable.com/appEBNqFVvAGqyOeJ/pag7jdKlojLKIK6BG/form