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:)
Just sent 40 bucks your way. Though I am a college student, I decided that I wanted to begin a donation habit so future me is less likely to go "All discretionary income will be used on me personally". Thus, this.
When I last looked at the bar, it had 99 donors and ~80k dollars donated, and now it has 104 donors and ~190k dollars donated. From this, I can deduce that somebody donated a whole hell of a lot of money.
Positive reinforcement for the donor! Group approval for the benefactor! High fives and internet hugs all around!
Physics puzzle: Being exposed to cold air while the wind is blowing causes more heat loss/feels colder than simply being exposed to still cold air.
So, if the ambient air temperature is above body temperature, and ignoring the effects of evaporation, would a high wind cause more heat gain/feel warmer than still hot air?
6450 stellar sent. For some reason, it took several days to receive the stellar, and I did not receive the 1000 free stellar, instead I got 6500.
Last time I asked for some advice about Vocaloid and ended up with two tracks I really like:
Utata-P ft. 結月ゆかり - "There's Supposed to Be a Cheat Code for Happiness" (electronic/dance)
Azuma feat. Yuzuki Yukari - 夢魅鳥 - Yumemidori (rock/pop)
edit: fixed second link.
Further recommendations. Twice as many this time.
(remember, feedback on which songs were good and which ones sucked, possibly by PM, helps tailor recommendations to what you like.)
Setsugetsuka (Yukari) Another Yukari song since you seem to like those.
Lonesome Cat (Miku) Rock song about a cat. Funny.
Tori No Uta (IA) Cover of a song originally by the voice provider. Probably the best example of vocal tuning I've yet come across.
Cloud Rider (IA) Quite energetic, and one of the more prominent IA songs.
Smile Again (Miku, Gumi) I'm pretty sure this song needs to be classified as some sort of mood-altering drug.
And now for the electronic/dance/trance songs. They get more calming as you approach the bottom.
Twilight Star (IA) The first IA song I ever found. Still pretty nice.
Solosail Remix (Miku Dark Append) In a similar vein as Lost Memories and Idiolect. Feel free to let your impressions of those songs direct your interest in this one.
Unlimited Blue (Luka) It's always nice to see a non-Miku trance song. I mean, there are a lot of really good ones with Hatsune Miku, but the percentage is too high.
Starport (Yukari) Very calming and perfect at the end of a long day.
Planetarium (IA) The single most sleep-inducing Vocaloid song I know of. In a good way.
Oh, btw, for Yumemidori, this is the official upload of the creator which won't be taken down.
This seems highly exploitable.
Anyone here want to try to use these bogus numbers to get a publisher to market their own fanfiction?
Badly in need of tl;dr
I disagree strongly, but here is a prototype of one anyways.
There are top-down and bottom-up approaches to logical probabilities. Top-down approaches typically involve distributions selected to fit certain properties, and, while being elegant and easy to apply math to, are often quite uncomputable. Bottom-up approaches take an agent with some information, and ask what they should do to assign probabilities/find out more, leading to a more "hacky" probability distribution, but they also tend to be easier to compute. Interestingly enough, given limited computing resources, these two sorts of distributions have distinct similarities. They both involve a starting probability distribution modified by iterated consistency checks.
Did I get it mostly right?
ADBOC.
Yes, we need to shift emphasis from "boo politics" to "politics is a much more difficult topic to discuss rationally than others".
But "hard mode" doesn't have nearly the emotional kick needed to dissuade the omnipresent Dunning-Kruger effect in politics. Running with the video game metaphor, I'm thinking something more along the lines of the feeling of great apprehension induced before playing I Wanna Be The Guy, Kaizo Mario, or the Zero Mercy Minecraft maps. But all the phrases used to refer to that particular cluster of challenges are either inapplicable to politics, or have the connotation of "foolish mortal, how dare you think you can challenge such an obviously impossible task bwahaha". (Like Nightmare Mode)
Is there a compact phrase which has the connotations of "Whoo boy, I'm probably getting in way over my head with this thing"?
Due to the preposterous number of Vocaloid songs out there, "best" in practice often means "personal favorites of the limited subset the person you are talking to has heard of". Vocaloid seems to follow Sturgeon's Law, as does everything else with low barriers to entry (like fanfiction), but fortunately, it doesn't take much time to check whether a given song is good, so hunting for hidden gems is a fairly fruitful activity as far as Vocaloid songs go. A useful site for this task is VocaDB
Endorsing Gwern's response below, here are five that I'd say are fairly decent.
Not is Destination The producer, Aerial Flow (that's his channel, by the way, poke around on it) is one of the best trance producers in the community, and there's quite a bit more stuff by him that I wanted to link but didn't.
Lost Memories A fairly nice Dark Append song that is tuned higher than the one you linked, but that I still suspect you may like. Not quite sure what to class it as.
Everlasting Love First song I listened to where I went "I like the vocal tuning on this one." Piano ballad.
Yumemidori Yes, it isn't Miku. Yes, it isn't electronic, it's guitar and drums. I'm still pretty enamored by it.
Idiolect Another popular techno song with the Dark Append.
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Just taking a wild shot at this one, but I suspect that the mistake is between C and D. In C, you start with an even distribution over all the people in the experiment, and then condition on surviving. In D, your uncertainty gets allocated among the people who have survived the experiment. Once you know the rules, in C, the filter is in your future, and in D, the filter is in your past.