Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 26 July 2010 09:02:47PM 3 points [-]

Apologies, I'm not as interesting as that. I changed a lot of beliefs about the belief system, but I was nonetheless still raised Christian.

See also: Epistemic luck.

Comment author: Skepxian 26 July 2010 11:44:29PM 0 points [-]

Ah, yes. that rather strikes a chord, indeed. Thank you.

Comment author: byrnema 26 July 2010 09:46:41PM *  1 point [-]

4: Assuming a deity figure with the OOMPH to make a universe, it'll probably be able to make certain it remains known. So it's probably one of the existing long-lasting and persistent belief systems.

I like this argument. If there was such a deity, it could make certain it is known (and rediscovered when forgotten). The deity could embed this information into the universe in any numbers of ways. These ways could be accessed by humans, but misinterpreted. Evidence for this is the world religions, which have many major beliefs in common, but differ in the details. Christianity, being somewhat mature as a religion and having developed concurrently with rational and scientific thought, could have a reliable interpretation in certain aspects.

Comment author: Skepxian 26 July 2010 11:43:53PM 0 points [-]

Thank you very much, I appreciate that.

however, I'm following from an assumption of a deity that wants to be known and moving forward. It certainly doesn't suffice for showing that a deity figure does exist, because if we follow the assumption of a deity that doesn't want to be known, or a lack of a deity, then any religion which has withstood the test of time is likely the one with the fewest obvious flaws. It's rather like evolution of an idea rather than a creature.

However, the existence of such a religion does provide for the possibility of a deity figure.

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 26 July 2010 08:47:09PM 1 point [-]

3^^^^3 on Less Wrong wiki.

Comment author: Skepxian 26 July 2010 08:54:28PM 0 points [-]

Oh, good golly gosh, that gets big fast. Thank you!

Comment author: mattnewport 26 July 2010 08:41:54PM 1 point [-]

Given a historical study of various long-lasting and persistent belief systems, I settled on Christianity as the most probable belief system, based on my knowledge of human behavior, the historical facts of the actions surrounding the era and life of Jesus such as the deaths of the Disciples, a study of the bible, and a basic irrational hunch.

This sounds interesting. So were you raised an atheist or in some non-Christian religious tradition? Is the culture of your home country predominantly non-Christian? Conversion to a new belief system based on evidence is an interesting phenomenon because it is so relatively rare. The vast majority of religious people simply adopt the religion they were raised in or the dominant religion of the surrounding culture which is one piece of evidence that religious belief is not generally arrived at through rational thinking. Counter examples to this trend offer a case study in the kinds of evidence that can actually change people's minds.

Comment author: Skepxian 26 July 2010 08:52:51PM 1 point [-]

Apologies, I'm not as interesting as that. I changed a lot of beliefs about the belief system, but I was nonetheless still raised Christian. I didn't mean to imply otherwise - pre-existing developmental bias is part of the 'basic irrational hunch' part of the sentence.

I agree that religious belief is not generally arrived at through rational thinking, however - whether that religious belief is 'there is a God, and I know who it is!' or 'there is no God'. This is evidenced, for instance, the time I was standing there at church, just before services, and enjoying the fine day, and someone steps up next to me. "Isn't it a beautiful morning?" he asks. "Yes it is!" I reply. "Makes you wonder how someone can see this and still be an atheist," he says.

( head turns slooooowly ) "I think it's possible to appreciate a beautiful morning and still be atheist..." "Yes, but then who would have made something so beautiful?" ( mouth opens to talk ) ( mouth works silently ) "I believe the assumption would be, no one." "And what kind of sense would that make?" "I'd love to have that discussion, but service is about to start, and it's too beautiful a morning for what I suspect would be an argument."

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 26 July 2010 08:29:05PM *  1 point [-]

Unfortunately, observations don't have epistemic power, so we'd have to live with all possible concepts. Besides, it's quite likely that reality doesn't in fact contain any infinities, in which case it's not possible to show you an infinity, and you are just demanding particular proof. :-)

Comment author: Skepxian 26 July 2010 08:38:01PM 0 points [-]

Wait... he's already saying he believes reality doesn't contain any infinities...

And you say that you can't show proof to the contrary because it's likely reality doesn't contain any infinities...

I don't think I followed you there.

Comment author: WrongBot 26 July 2010 08:35:16PM 0 points [-]

The BusyBeaver value I'm referring to is the maximum number of steps that the Busy Beaver Turing Machine with n states (and, for convenience, 2 symbols) will take before halting. So (via wikipedia), BB(1) = 1, BB(2) = 6, BB(3) = 21, BB(4) = 107, BB(5) >= 47,176,870, BB(6) >= 3.8 × 10^21132, and so on. It grows the fastest of all possible complexity classes.

Comment author: Skepxian 26 July 2010 08:36:17PM 0 points [-]

Ah, excellent, so I'm not so far off. Then what's 3^^^3, then?

Comment author: mattnewport 26 July 2010 08:06:52PM *  3 points [-]

Studies also show that prayer does have a powerful healing effect - but only if the subject knows that they are being prayed for.

Citations please. The only well controlled study I know of found the opposite - subjects who knew they were being prayed for suffered more complications than those who did not.

Comment author: Skepxian 26 July 2010 08:26:50PM 0 points [-]

I actually found it several years ago through an atheist site which was using it as evidence that prayer had only a placebo effect, so I'm afraid I don't have a citation for you just at the moment. I'll see what I can do when I have time. My apologies.

Comment author: WrongBot 26 July 2010 07:52:28PM 0 points [-]

I don't. I believe that there are things that can only be described in terms of stupendously huge numbers, but I believe that everything that exists can be described without reference to infinities.

Really, when I think about how incomprehensibly enormous a number like BusyBeaver(3^^^3) is, I have trouble believing that there is some physical aspect of the universe that could need anything bigger. And if there is, well, there's always BusyBeaver(3^^^^3) waiting in the wings.

Eliezer calls this infinite-set atheism, which is as good a name as any, I suppose.

Comment author: Skepxian 26 July 2010 08:25:08PM 0 points [-]

I'm not sure I understand. Part of it is the use of BusyBeaver - I'm familiar with Busy Beaver as an AI state machine, not as a number. Second: So you say you do not believe in infinity ... but only inasmuch as physical infinity? So you believe in conceptual infinity?

Comment author: WrongBot 26 July 2010 07:38:07PM 2 points [-]

I believe the bible was divinely inspired

Why? This seems to be the foundation for all your justifications here, and it's an incredibly strong claim. What evidence supports it? Is there any (weaker, presumably) evidence that contradicts it? I'd suggest you take a look at the article on Privileging the Hypothesis, which is a pretty easy failure mode to fall into when the hypothesis in question was developed by someone else.

Comment author: Skepxian 26 July 2010 08:08:39PM 0 points [-]

A weighty question... At the moment, I'm not entirely able to give you the full response, I'm afraid, but I'll give you the best 'short answer' that I'm able to compile.

1: The universe seems slanted towards Entropy. This suggests a 'start'. Which suggests something to start the universe. This of course has a great many logical fallacies inherent in it, but it's one element. 2: Given a 'something to start the universe', we're left with hypothetical scientific/mathematical constructs or a deity-figure of some sort. 3: Assuming a deity figure (yes, privileging the Hypothesis - but given a small number of possibilities, we can hypothesize each in turn and then exhaustively test that element) we need to assume that either the deity figure doesn't care if we know about it, in which case it's pointless to search, or that it does care if we know about it, in which case there will be evidence. If it is pointless to search, then I see little difference between that and a hypothetical scientific/mathematical construct. Thus, we're still left with 'natural unknown force' or 'knowable deity figure'. 4: Assuming a deity figure with the OOMPH to make a universe, it'll probably be able to make certain it remains known. So it's probably one of the existing long-lasting and persistent belief systems. 5: ( magic happens ) Given a historical study of various long-lasting and persistent belief systems, I settled on Christianity as the most probable belief system, based on my knowledge of human behavior, the historical facts of the actions surrounding the era and life of Jesus such as the deaths of the Disciples, a study of the bible, and a basic irrational hunch. I found that lots of what I was brought up being taught about the bible and Christianity was wrong, but the Bible itself seemed much more stable. 6: Given certain historical elements, I was led to have to believe in certain Christian miracles I'm unable to explain. That, combined with the assumption that a deity-figure would want itself to be known, results in an active belief.

3: Assuming there is no deity-figure, or the deity-figure does not care to be known. In this case, the effort expended applying rational thought to religious institutions will not provide direct fruit for a proper religion. 4: If there is no deity figure, or the deity-figure dose not care to be known, the most likely outcome of assumption #1 will likely have a serious flaw in it. 5: ( magic happens ) I searched out (and continue to search out) all the strongest "Christianity cannot be true" arguments I could (and can) find, and compare the anti-Christianity to the pro-Christianity arguments, and could not find a serious flaw. Several small flaws which are easily attributable to human error or lack of knowledge about a subject, but nothing showing a serious flaw in the underpinnings of the religion. 6: Additional side effect: the act of researching religions includes a researching and examination of comparable morality systems and social behavior, and how it affects the world around it. This provides sufficient benefit that even if there is no deity figure, or a deity figure does not care to be known, the act of searching is not wasted. Quite the contrary, I consider the ongoing study into religion, and into Christianity itself, to be time well spent - even if at some later date I discover that the religion does have the serious flaw that I have not yet found.

Comment author: Skepxian 26 July 2010 07:37:05PM 0 points [-]

I wish I could, but mid-week trips to Madison are difficult for me, given my work hours. Have fun nonetheless! Glad to know WI get-togethers happen!

View more: Prev | Next