Comment author: ChristianKl 22 June 2016 06:54:15PM 0 points [-]

Law might want to govern them, but the power of the state is limited. A court can't compel a computer that executes code to do anything.

Comment author: Slider 22 June 2016 10:56:03PM 0 points [-]

Court can order computers dismantled. And I think there are methods for state to aquire property if it can be shown to be a "vechicle of crime". It is afterall the state that controls the monopoly on violence needed to enforce private property in the first place.

Comment author: Pimgd 06 June 2016 11:57:04AM *  1 point [-]

I understand the normal version of newcombs perfectly fine, I understand the normal version of counterfactual mugging (or at least the wiki version of it) perfectly fine, I get that the transparent boxes are mostly the same if you follow the logic , but in this case, the choice is presented AFTER you've picked boxes. "Here are two boxes. Would you like one or both. 'Both please.' Okay, also I'd like to inform you that if you pick both, you don't get the million. No backsies."

Saying that this is predicted in advance is weird, because there is no possibility of a meaningful loop: the moment of timeline separation is AFTER the choice has been made. The choice is set in stone. There is no possible change. You can pay, but it won't change a thing. Unless you were somehow determined to pay people in scenarios like this - which requires knowledge of scenarios like this.

In the original version, something happens, and then the losing you is contacted and asked whether you'd want to pay. And you'd be able to choose at that point, and even think about it. And then it turns out this was all a simulation and because you paid, the winning real you gets paid.

In this version, we could make it work by taking the result of the previous simulation (I flipped a coin you lost, pay me $100 or I won't pay $10000 if you had won), and then going through the prophet who either says you're fine if losing you paid, or that you're not fine if losing you didn't pay.

But what we cannot do is simulate this and loop it on itself. You are doomed in the future. You are always doomed in the future. There is no possibility of you being not doomed in the future. But, if you pay, then there is a possibility that you are not doomed in the future. That's a contradiction right there. If I accept that the statement about my unchanging future is false, then I'll pay because then I can go from 100% doomed to 50% doomed. If I accept that the statement about changing my future is false, then I won't pay, because you're a snake oil salesman, your cure will do me no good.

To fix this, the wording needs to be altered so that there is no contradiction and that there is a clear result of paying the money that will reduce the chance.

In short, I think this problem relies too much on UDT's ability to magically teleport between possible situations and failed to left a path for Time to take.

Comment author: Slider 06 June 2016 01:20:28PM 0 points [-]

I think even with the ordinary phrasing the omegas prediction can be thought to sit in a sealed envelope as the real you picks. You don't think about the problem until then with your own brain. But in a way the contents of the envelope can be deduced from the transparent boxes.

I think it exhibits the same kind of wierdness. It doesn't really make sense to ever have the player choose only the empty transparent box, because the box will only be left empty if the player is predicted to pick both. So committing to not take both boxes means the boxes will be full. It doesn't really mean that the impossible "presented with two empty boxes" scenario is destroyed.

Comment author: Slider 06 June 2016 10:33:19AM -2 points [-]

I have found what I think is equivalent to the counter-factual mugging.

You come across a thread on 4chan with text like "You have been visited by the murderous dog of murder. Your mother will die in their sleep tonight unless you please the doggie with 'good doggie'" Do you reply or do you have reason to reply? On one hand you don't have any evidence on who is posting the post and whether they are actually being able to pull of the murder. On the other hand the message is highly unplausible. (One could argue that seeing several "good doggie" replies is social proof that somebody is taking it seriously enough (but the explanation that it is more lolzy to play along is more plausible)).

The logic of someone who replies (outside of the lol factor) is "meh, its quickly typed and it would suck to find my mother dead the next morning". Yet it means that anyone that makes such a "visited by" thread is guaranteed many replies. Someone that recognises this is doesn't think that much about how credible th threat is. She just recognises the mugging and ignores the thread.

Comment author: g_pepper 04 June 2016 06:40:24PM 3 points [-]

Actually, deterrence is a big part of why we incarcerate criminals. I don't really think that jails (in many parts of the world anyway) are very conducive to positive interventions, rehabilitation, etc.

Jail prevents further commitment of most types of crime.

Obviously capital punishment is more effective than jail in preventing the criminal from committing additional crimes.

At least for their stay in jail they will have to carry out a way less crimeful life.

I'm not sure that is true. Many jails are full of criminal activity, e.g. drug dealing, other contraband smuggling, violent assault, etc. And, criminal gangs operate in many jails in the US and many other parts of the world as well.

Comment author: Slider 05 June 2016 05:43:52PM 0 points [-]

Capital punihsment doesn't help the convict to live a crimelss life where a jail does.

I do take not that jail is described as deterrence and that a proper "no argument to the stick" line would want to abolish that. However if we are going to discourage people with negative consequences jail has less downsides to it than capital punishment.

I do come from a part of the world where rehabilatory stances are taken more seriously and the prison conditions are kept way more orderly (which like takes money). I can speak only for my half on why I approve having jails around and how I would like them to be run. US type prisons are very in line with the will of the voter but I disagree with the popular stance there to handle prisoners.

In a documentary apparently one inmates motive for the crime was to be incarcinated in order to buy their drugs at prison prices instead of street prices. While I understand this from the convicts point of view I don't think that any system that allows this to happen is a good one. While you can't 100% remove them because the smugglers have pretty good incentives to try, if it is too much accepted as a inevitability the countermeasures can be too lax.

Comment author: g_pepper 04 June 2016 04:15:04AM 3 points [-]

Argument via stick is not a persuasive argument.

How do you feel about jail sentences for criminals? Isn't forcibly imprisoning someone basically "argument via stick"?

Comment author: Slider 04 June 2016 05:27:52PM -4 points [-]

I don't think jails main function to be deterrant. Jail can give room for reflection and it can be used to provide a more structured environment. Various interventions are more easily carried out in jail context. Jail prevents further commitment of most types of crime. At least for their stay in jail they will have to carry out a way less crimeful life.

Comment author: time 04 June 2016 02:36:17AM 1 point [-]

I just mean that I am part of the group that thinks murder outside of war should be illegal.

Everyone believes that. Of course, since the standard definition of [murder] is "the killing of another human being without justification or valid excuse" or "unlawful killing with malice aforethought", this is a somewhat tautological belief.

Comment author: Slider 04 June 2016 03:44:37AM -5 points [-]

Well, I will rephase. I think pre-meditated killing of another human being against the targets will outside of immidiet self-defence in times of peace should be illegal. That should disinclude capital punishment and allow for possbility of euthanasia. Cops can still gun down gun nuts, but essentially only when they violently resist arrest.

I was thinking of the word "murder" in a more neutral "pre-meditated act of causing the death of another human being for the sake of it" sense. Over what it is legitemate to declare war I leave to separate consideration but I consider it important they be declared. Capital punishment for war crimes I am less worried about althought I am happy and accepting of my countrys stance that its not a valid legal consequene even for them.

Some people would say that it might be considerable for extremely bad crimes but I disagree. I think for example that Norway had adequate and proper consequence for Breivik. Everyone whoms beliefs I have got even a little traction of that favours for a consequence of death for him has essentially the same flaw in logic that the motive of itself Breivik did, that violences solves something or meaningfully communicates something. Argument via stick is not a persuasive argument.

Comment author: time 03 June 2016 06:44:24AM 3 points [-]

Yes, its my own rather limited special group rather than being universal.

So your special group looks down on all the other groups.

While its true that given signficant poltical will it could be changed it migth not be true that majority of the relevant countriers think its okay/neutral to do. The political process involves compromises and this can be an accepted downside. Also inhibiting dispersion of political ideas either by limiting media or removing opposing political stances means the choice is not that cognitive. In a way by doing such things the actors admit that its worthwhile to bother doing it meaning they don't dare face the "fair fight" where the people have all the options available and are informed about all the choices. So when the process is rigged its outcome isn't as strong an argument to show what the people want.

So what's your position on your groups laws against "hate speech"?

However if you controlled for socioeconomical status a lto of it could be that blacks are majority in poor areas.

How is the relevant to the point?

But even then its common to hear stories where police are more active in regards to black people.

Yes, that's because black people are more likely to commit crimes and high-black areas tend to be high crime areas.

A black person doesn't need to be armed for a cop to start fearing for his life and discharging weapons and tasers.

The same is true for a white person. You may be biased because "cop shoots unarmed black" type stories tend to be overplayed in the media, and key details like "the unarmed black was high on marijuana/speed and was going for the cop's gun" tend to be omitted from the stories.

Comment author: Slider 03 June 2016 08:12:31AM -5 points [-]

I just mean that I am part of the group that thinks murder outside of war should be illegal. I not a relativist in the sense that for others its negation should/could hold. I think they are wrong and misguided and their reasons for their belief and their stated reasons are insufficient. I could be deluded that everybody things that murder is wrong. but no there are people that genuinely believe and effectively enact that running a country by a few murders is appropriate.

Stane on hate speech that is encouraging and calling for criminal acts is okay to be punishable but purely communicative speech should be allowed. Having a minority political opinion should not in itself be a basis for punishment (and is not sufficient grounds for "political instability" security arguments).

But even if the speech freeness conditions are not perfect I don't think it gives basis to go invade or mess too much with internal affairs of a state. But it does mean for me that it is more okay to treat the countrys offiical stance to be attirbuted as of their opinion on who are in (de facto) power. There are lines of argument in that if the leadership deviates too much from the will of the people they would bother to revolt to revoke the technically illegimately held power. Thus even power illegimately gained needs to be atleast passively accepted granting it a sort of genuine legitimacy. But here arguments about how cost-effective it is to genuinely influence the political direction are strong. If there is a official position and disagreeing with it gets you murdered it does tell what the legitimate stance would be.

I am suspecting taht the reason is that poors are more liekly to commit crimes and using race as a proxy for social-economical status doesn't add anything significant. That is "high-black area-> high-crime area" is a correlation not a causation.

I guess my main emphasis was that police have more readiness to use force against blacks than against whites. The tendency for media to give attention selectively doesn't totally explain it. There are also additional media effects that play a role. A story is more likely to be a news story if it features a white victim as opposed to a black victim. And for example in the recent gorilla story somehow the father that was not on the scene was found relevant even with his past being somehow relevant. A embarassing reason for it is probably because there were details that resonated with casting that person in a villain role.

Black people are searched more often, their treatment while police direct actions towards them is more hostile. a black person doesn't need to exhibit any actual sign of terror such as wielding weapon or be found near a crime scene or anythign like that. Just being black makes police likely to treat you as a higher threat. This is against the principle of "innocent until proven guilty". One can argue whether using skin color as part of threat assement is legimate or that it doesn't happen. But most of the time it seems its seen as illegimate and it does happen.

Comment author: time 01 June 2016 09:17:52PM *  1 point [-]

One could make a more compelling case for capital punishment. Beheadings in middle-eastern countries are looked down upon, assasinations being involved in Russian politics is often critizied and you can get executed for rather political actions in China.

By whom? Not by (the majority of) the Middle-Easterners, Russians, or Chinese.

However the face of the western world, US, has a death-row that is disproportionally black.

Disproportionate to what? Compared to the relevant crime statistics it's disproportionally white.

Comment author: Slider 02 June 2016 08:14:06AM -6 points [-]

Yes, its my own rather limited special group rather than being universal. But I think we don't think we are especially non-murdery but see it as a natural extension on civilization eradicating free-for-all murder. But I guess on other systems the state merely has a monopoly on murder that it can do at its discretion.

While its true that given signficant poltical will it could be changed it migth not be true that majority of the relevant countriers think its okay/neutral to do. The political process involves compromises and this can be an accepted downside. Also inhibiting dispersion of political ideas either by limiting media or removing opposing political stances means the choice is not that cognitive. In a way by doing such things the actors admit that its worthwhile to bother doing it meaning they don't dare face the "fair fight" where the people have all the options available and are informed about all the choices. So when the process is rigged its outcome isn't as strong an argument to show what the people want.

Maybe its the question of what are the relevant crime statistics. Having heard and read about such a black person committing a serious violence is more likely to get death-sentence while a white gets life in prison. Compared to a general population there are disproportionally more black people doing crimes. However if you controlled for socioeconomical status a lto of it could be that blacks are majority in poor areas. But even then its common to hear stories where police are more active in regards to black people. They also tend to use more serious measures against them. A black person doesn't need to be armed for a cop to start fearing for his life and discharging weapons and tasers.

There is even the joke of "Well white people can't use the N word but atleast we can use phrases like 'thanks, for the warning officer'". There is reason to suspect that there are a lot of "false positives" of black people being processed by the legal system where a lighter process could have sufficed. Still it gives an order of magnitude that the prospensity to convict blacks for murder and such is weaker than overall prospensity to charge blacks for crimes.

Comment author: Lumifer 01 June 2016 02:26:41PM 0 points [-]

For example genders are way more economically integrated than countries.

Huh?

Comment author: Slider 01 June 2016 06:08:32PM 1 point [-]

Women and men tend to live in each other proximity and atleast have occasional contact. You don't in the same way spatially mix different states.

There are some effects where for example nurses can have disproportionally female composition. But even in such a setting the nurses might be regularly interacting with doctors which don't have the same kind of gender skew. How the nurses conduct themselfs might have very practical signifcance to possibly male doctors.

However things need to play out rather wonkily if a corporation has employess in two states. And one state can fix signficant laws that don't have any impact on the other state (as they don't hold there). There are some effects where for example some criminals find mexico to be a easy drug production place and the US a handy market for them. But these tend to be less intensive and don't reac tto each other so well.

Comment author: casebash 01 June 2016 12:31:22AM *  -2 points [-]

This scenario is explicitly about a hypothetical oppressed group. Some parts of it are explicitly motivated by gender discussions, many parts of the scenario are not supposed to be analogous.

Comment author: Slider 01 June 2016 11:34:13AM 2 points [-]

In meshing together multiple issues there is risk that you think of interactions of phenomena that actually do not interact because they are part of different series of events.

For example genders are way more economically integrated than countries. But genders also usually don't have leadership hierarchies. Usually hypotheticals work by cutting out stuff that is inessential to the central logic of the phenomen making it easier to see and reason about. If you just slap together random mechanics taht might or migth not be relevant its going to be a very unintuitive franksteins of fact and fiction where you don't know which part is which.

There is something to the idea of appriciating how several social effects work together to make systems and complex outcomes. And about discovering social effects that are in effect that are not obvious. But trying to make both at once seems more like a recipe for confusion rather than clarity.

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