Playing your double: Evidence that your opponent will not use rock is evidence that you should not use paper. If you don't use rock, and don't use paper, then you must use scissors and tie with your opponent who followed the same reasoning.

Updating on evidence that rock doesn't win when it is used means rock wins.

EDIT: consider what you would believe if you tried to call a coin a large number of times and were always right. Then consider what you would believe if you were always wrong.

If one strategy clearly and consistently produc[ed] inferior results compared to another strategy, that should be all we need to discard it as inferior.

I disagree. Just because Rock lost every time it was played doesn't mean that it's inferior to Paper or Scissors, to use a trivial example.

Here is another way to think about this problem.

Imagine if instead of Omega you were on a futuristic game show. As you go onto the show, you enter a future-science brain scanner that scans your brain. After scanning, the game show hosts secretly put the money into the various boxes behind stage.

You now get up on stage and choose whether to one or two box.

Keep in mind that before you got up on the show, 100 other contestants played the game that day. All of the two-boxers ended up with less money than the one-boxers. As an avid watcher of the show, you clearly remember that in every previous broadcast (one a day for ten years) the one-boxers did better than the two-boxers.

Can you honestly tell me that the superior move here is two-boxing? Where does the evidence point? If one strategy clearly and consistently produces inferior results compared to another strategy, that should be all we need to discard it as inferior.

So I was planning on doing the AI gatekeeper game as discussed in a previous thread.

My one stipulation as Gatekeeper was that I could release the logs after the game, however my opponent basically backed out after we had barely started.

Is it worth releasing the logs still, even though the game did not finish?

Ideally I could get some other AI to play against me, that way I have more logs to release. I will give you up to two hours on Skype, IRC, or some other easy method of communication. I am estimating my resounding victory with a 99%+ probability. We can put karma, small money, or nothing on the line.

Is anyone up for this?

I would still love to gatekeep against anyone with the stipulation that we release the logs.

I have offered in the past, but every AI backed out.

I will genuinely read everything you write, and can give you up to two hours. We can put karma, cash, or nothing on the line. Favorable odds too.

I don't think I will lose with a probability over 99% because I will play to win.

EDIT: Looks like my opponent is backing out. Anyone else want to try?

I will play against you.

I would still love to gatekeep against anyone with the stipulation that we release the logs.

I have offered in the past, but every AI backed out.

I will genuinely read everything you write, and can give you up to two hours. We can put karma, cash, or nothing on the line. Favorable odds too.

I don't think I will lose with a probability over 99% because I will play to win.

EDIT: Looks like my opponent is backing out. Anyone else want to try?

Do you think you can win?

Perhaps also of interest:

Does anyone think there does not exist any possible string of characters that would have even the slightest chance of convincing even a trained rational scientist?

(i.e. the kind of people who observe, dissect and analyze the output of the AI to make sure the output is safe and useful for humans before we can use the knowledge the AI gives us)

An edited paste of a conversation I had with a friend

Alicorn: I'm increasingly disappointed with Hermione's character. Eliezer has never been great with female characters, and he's trying so hard with her, but he's made her so silly, so pathetically, appallingly silly. She's not stupid, she's not evil, but she's more a child than anyone else who gets character development and she is such a silly girl. I don't mean, like, she has a sense of humor, which is the other meaning of the word "silly". She is not Pinkie Pie, she's just a ninny.

Alphabeta: To be fair, all the other people her age with that much development are fucking crazy.

Alicorn: All the girls in their year are silly, though, I don't think this is just Hermione's personal character flaw that she has to have because she got developed a certain amount. It's more irritating in her, because we see more of her and it's contrasting against higher intelligence, but all the girls are silly.

Alphabeta: That sounds like something Eliezer needs to hear

Alicorn: yeah, I'm considering pasting this conversation in the LW discussion thread

Alphabeta: Also, in fairness, most of the boys are silly, and McGonagall is very good at not being silly. Okay, most of the NPC boys are silly.

Alicorn: McGonagall is not silly, it's true. McGonagall may be the best female character Eliezer has done. But I'd feel better about it if she'd been revised for hypercompetence while Moody was a minor side character serving as a cautionary tale about wasting time on low-probability risks, or something.

Alphabeta: Well, Director Bones is competent, even if she did drop the ball on Quirrelmort's identity pretty hard

Alicorn: Bones hasn't been invited to a place of significance in the protagonist's story. As far as Harry is concerned, she is set dressing. Moody just got promoted.

Alphabeta: Also, why is Harry using Snape as his example of guys he might end up attracted to instead of Quirrelmort?

Alicorn: Good question. I'll paste that too :P

Depending on the extent of my god mode, I'd either reorganize the planet into a planetary transportation government and regional city-states - the planetary transportation government runs an intercontinental rail system that connects every city-state and enforces with overwhelming military might (provided by feudal grants from city states) only one right, that of emigration (not immigration; city states can refuse to permit people to stay within their borders, they're simply forbidden from preventing people from leaving).

Or, if I'm playing full god mode, I'd dismantle the local planets, turn them into a reorientable Dyson sphere around the sun, and use a combination of solar sails and selective reflection to turn our entire solar system into a fusion-powered galactic spaceship, and cruise the galaxy looking for something more interesting. (By absorbing solar emissions on one hemisphere of the sun, and on the other hemisphere reflecting half back into the sun and letting half escape, the energy of the sun can be used to accelerate it, albeit very slowly. If this still sounds ridiculous, imagine shoving the sun into a rocket; that's kind of what would be happening, only with ridiculously low thrust.)

Your initial request doesn't exactly limit the scope of powers in any foreseeable way, except to limit the means.