Comment author: Good_Burning_Plastic 12 April 2015 08:17:59AM 3 points [-]

Okay, Eliezer should add a boldfaced note at the bottom of this post asking people not to comment until they've read the followup.

Comment author: Sonder_Wand 12 April 2015 10:25:03PM 0 points [-]

The answers provided there seem not to be relevant to the objection I raised.

In response to Conjunction Fallacy
Comment author: Sonder_Wand 12 April 2015 04:19:53AM 0 points [-]

Is this really a fallacy? In the USSR and Poland case, we might take the probability space in (1) to exclude an invasion of Poland, and the space in (2) to include one. Then the claims are perfectly consistent, since the probability space changes; people just reason with respect to "stereotypical" alternatives.