I order Joylent Twennybars in response to this. They are rather tasty.

Joylent Twennybars.

Wow, thank you very much! I would have thought most LessWrongers would answer the question "Why does anything exist?" with the answer "That question does not make sense."

I didn't know there was such a range of options.

Is there a European alternative for a MealSquares-like product, i.e. one that is eaten, not drunk?

That demonstrates that Japanese culture has the phrase. Not that Japanese culture has the phrase with the same meaning as Eliezer uses.

And even if Japanese culture has it, there's a difference between having it as a fictional thing and having it as a concept commonly applied to actual people.

Also, in this context, remember that fictional scenarios are often set up to have individuals drastically influence the result where real life scenarios do not. People like reading about Voldemort defeated by Harry Potter, not by 200 wizards doing routine policing misions that are thorough enough that they happen to find all the horcruxes, followed by massive military backup for the squad of identically trained men raiding his compound. That's why fictional characters often have something like tsuyoku naritai; it doesn't carry over to the real world.

By the way:

"Torah loses knowledge in every generation. Science gains knowledge with every generation. No matter where they started out, sooner or later science must surpass Torah."

Obviously Eliezer was not familiar with the concept "asymptote".

I just submitted it and was lucky. It's the kind of thing that sub likes. I've had around three posts hit the front page out of probably thousands since I started, there's definitely a large luck factor that goes in.

We're consequentialists here, so I get all the credit for it even if it wasn't much effort, right?

I made a video compilation of Japanese songs that include the words "Tsuyoku naritai".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CtcXiT6An-U

I wasn't really convinced that this concept was really present in Japanese culture before but I suppose I am, now.

In direct contradiction to your request, I am not helping with your maths but providing general (not specific) advice.

Bleeding has a 30% mortality rate

This depends very much on the population you are looking at (age, source of bleeding, severity of bleeding, comorbidities at time of bleeding - both acute and chronic). I would suggest that if you are not fulfilling some of these criteria your bleeding mortality is much lower. It is certainly possible that an SSRI could have a statistically significant effect in cases of severe bleeding like major trauma, but you'd have to estimate the risk that you'll experience major bleeding.

As Cariyaga has said, acetaminophen/paracetamol is an alternative, which doesn't have the same interaction with SSRIs. Individual doses of NSAIDs may be ok, but I don't know if there's any good data to support or deny this. Part of the risk with NSAIDs is that they affect coagulation AND directly cause bleeding (gastric ulceration). Past history or family history of clotting/bleeding disorders, gastric ulcers or significant gastric reflux increase the risk of this.

Another alternative is non-serotonergic antidepressants. There are many classes of antidepressant and some may not feature the same level of evidence of this increased bleeding risk (although all feature potential side-effect profiles longer than my arms). To confuse matters, some are classified structurally (tricyclic antidepressants TCAs, tetracyclic antidepressants) and some functionally (SSRIs, SNRIs, NaSSAs, RIMAs, MAOIs). TCAs may behave functionally like SSRIs, and may confer a bleeding risk as well.

I think the solution will depend on some research by yourself and some discussions with your doctor. Certainly avoiding NSAIDs is an easy first step. It is easy to get paralysed by the ocean of studies, but doing nothing may not be the right decision for your quality of life.

Well, I'd try to find a more accurate estimate of mortality and hospitalization for your age group; if you're younger than 30, I'd be very surprised to find the mortality rate that high. You could also take Acetaminophen instead, as it it is a pain reliever which is NOT an NSAID, and does not seem to cause any stomach bleeding, which should cut it down to the 4x margin. IANAD, though, so take that with a grain of salt, and speak to your GP if you have any particular questions about interactions.

I can follow your maths, but I'm also not a stat major or anything.

How likely am I to die from taking SSRI's?

This review says:

In conclusion, this review suggests the need for caution in the use of SSRI therapy, particularly among patients with other risk factors for bleeding and those taking NSAIDs. The estimated rate of hospitalization for upper GI bleeding in the US during the 1990s was ∼ 155 per 100,000 population per year [46]. The data examined suggests that the risk of GI bleeding may be increased 2 – 4-fold in patients taking SSRIs and 3 – 12-fold when combined with NSAIDs. However, one must recognise that the incidence of upper GI bleeding increases with age. As such, the risk/benefit profile of these compounds could be influenced by the patient’s age and other co-morbid conditions.

on which I performed calculations like this:

1. It's a 4-fold increase with 155 per 100.000 population getting hospitalized for bleeding by any cause
2. Bleeding has a 30% mortality rate
3. The increase of chance in death is +0.001395 per year
4. Which is 1395 micromorts per year

Which seems like a lot, for just one sideeffect of SSRI's. Would somebody please check my calculation to see whether I haven't made a major error?

One thing I've neglected is that GI bleeding appears to occur more with the elderly and its mortality rate rises sharply with age, but I haven't found any good data on that. Does anybody have some experience with this?

I'm suffering from a recurring depression (in my 4th depressive period now) which apparently often responds well to SSRI's, but I'm still not sure how much of a risk it is.

IANAL, but I'm not requesting medical advice, just help with math.