AI indifference through utility manipulation
Indifference is a precious and rare commodity for complex systems. The most likely effect of making a change in an intricate apparatus is a whole slew of knock-on effects crowned with unintended consequences. It would be ideal if one could make a change and be sure that the effects would remain isolated - that the rest of the system would be indifferent to the change.
For instance, it might be a sensible early-AI precaution to have an extra observer somewhere, sitting with his hand upon a button, ready to detonate explosives should the AI make a visible power grab. Except, of course, the AI will become aware of this situation, and will factor it in in any plans it makes, either by increasing its deception or by grabbing control of the detonation system as a top priority. We would be a lot safer if the AI were somehow completely indifferent to the observer and the explosives. That is a complex wish that we don't really know how to phrase; let's make it simpler, and make it happen.




If there were two universes, one very likely to evolve life and one very unlikely, and all we knew was that we existed in one, then we are much more likely to exist in the first universe. Hence our own existence is evidence about the likelihood of life evolving, and there still is a Fermi paradox.