Can you be more specific about what you are calling GMO?
In a world of labeling I have no problem with having more specific labels for different types of it.
And what you are saying is the problem?
Goodhard's law is generally a problem when you have strong optimisation tools.
With unlabeled GMO's the commercial pressure is to create food that is as cheap as possible without regard for whether it's healthy. If you require labeling than the companies producing the food have incentives to produce healthy food.
GMO's reduce diversity of agriculture. That produces a systems that generally less robust, for reasons that Nassim Taleb talks about frequently.
Golden rice - probably fine.
Do you believe that people shouldn't know whether or not their rice has added Vitamin A? I think it's very worthwhile for people to know about it.
Subscribe to RSS Feed
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
First: check whether the issue is really important: With some exceptions (voting correctly, believing the correct afterlife and not getting sent to hell) If you aren't in a position to interact with the evidence it's probably not something you meaningfully have control over. (Most things for which it is important for you to personally understand have measurable consequences to you. Why do you need the right answer to the GMO question, what would you even do with the right answer?).
Then:
-Figure out exactly what the claims really are and try not to conflate different claims (GMOs will do what, exactly?)
-Consider the possibility that the entire premise is silly ("Is God one or trinity?" "Is she a witch?") and the "consensus" is just wrong and the debate is insane. Generate some plausible third options.
-Check if the two hypotheses seem by your perception to be of roughly equal parsimony, internal logical consistency, and compliance with known evidence, and also check the third options you generated.
-Ask the basic "so, what evidence would you need to tell the difference" questions.
-all the things you mentioned (weigh expert opinions, eliminate bad arguments, eliminate experts who use bad arguments)
-look for concrete predictable things in that area, and adjacent to that area which differ according to the two hypotheses.
-If it's a political issue, try to find out what people who might plausibly be expertish in the area yet don't seem to be invested in debating the issue think about it.
-check what known superforcasters in the field think (people who have a track record of successful predictions in that area). Superforecasters need not actually be loudly engaging with the issue, just ask.
-check if people who have different types of knowledge tend to say different things (e.g. economists vs. sociologists)
-What sorts of knowledge would you need to have to answer the question vs. what sorts of knowledge do the experts in question actually have? (You might think medical doctors are qualified to talk about the effectiveness and safety of various treatments, for example, but they aren't. You want a medical researcher for that. The only difference between a medical doctor and a witch doctor is that one was trained by a curriculum developed by medical researchers and the other wasn't.)
-check for founder effects or cultural effects biasing beliefs (Again, economists vs sociologists. Also, if theologians believe in god at higher rate than biologists it might not be because of different knowledge)
What else? I mean it's a big question, you've asked after a fairly big chunk of "rationality" there.
Point #2 is a big important point. The media does not select relevant issues, they chose issues that play well to the public. Sometimes these overlap, but often they do not. GMO is a good example, because it is reported as monolithically important, but each genetic modification has to be considered individually; considering GMOs as a unified group is not very useful. Likewise, if you are interested in health and nutrition, you should also look for vegetables that are grown to be nutritious, which includes many GMO but not others: many plants are modified to look better, not be healthier; but many plants are modified to be more nutritious, not look better; etc. Moreover, you can also get some benefit in nutrition by ignoring the GMO debate and looking at things like soil health (organic works as a vague proxy for this, but again, 'organic' is a media chosen label, and so is touted as Very Relevant In Every Way and also does not limit itself to soil health) or time-since-harvest (locally grown, proxy, media pollution, etc.)