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Comment author: Alicorn 17 March 2017 01:46:56AM 19 points [-]

If you like this idea but have nothing much to say please comment under this comment so there can be a record of interested parties.

Comment author: Tem42 20 March 2017 01:02:54AM 2 points [-]

Very interested, but not willing to move more than 2-3 hours away; am nowhere near CA.

Comment author: roland 10 October 2016 12:20:15PM 3 points [-]

Is the following a rationality failure? When I make a stupid mistake that caused some harm I tend to ruminate over it and blame myself a lot. Is this healthy or not? The good thing is that I analyze what I did wrong and learn something from it. The bad part is that it makes me feel terrible. Is there any analysis of this behaviour out there? Studies?

Comment author: Tem42 13 October 2016 11:23:22PM 0 points [-]

If it is severe enough that you are posting here about it making you feel bad, it is worth trying to replace it with a mental habit that works equally well to prevent future errors but feels better.

It is good to gain control over your mental habits in general, and this sounds like a good place to start.

If those statements appear true to you, no other analysis of this behavior is likely necessary.

Comment author: Tem42 09 October 2016 12:56:41AM 1 point [-]

It is interesting to note that if we quietly pass away and 50 million years later intelligent lungfish build up a civilization, they would presumably have good evidence that we were here, and would have good reason to assume that civilizations arise about once every 50 million years on average. Our effect on the Earth has probably been great enough that they will not have significant evidence from previous periods to contradict this assumption. In the case of large scale planetary civilizations, only the first one is likely to be in a position to reliably notice a delay in the appearance of previous civilizations longer than the pause between themselves and the immediately previous civilization. Therefore it may be reasonable to believe that, if 10 civilizations arise on the average planet, 90% of them will believe that they are probably midway through a long succession of civilizations.

Comment author: Tem42 09 October 2016 12:26:55AM 0 points [-]

If we are the only civilisation to exist in the history of the Earth, then we will probably become extinct not in mild way, but rather in a way which will prevent any other civilisation from appearing. There is higher probability of future (man-made) catastrophes which will not only end human civilisation, but also prevent any existence of any other civilisations on Earth.

I don't believe that this follows. It is surprising that we are apparently the only civilization to so far appear on Earth, but if we accept that we are, we should not assume that we have accomplished this by destroying the future.

However, while I feel strongly that this is this case, I do not feel confidant that I can express it in a way that would be understood by someone who does not agree with me.

If someone could explain clearly why I am right, or alternatively, why I am wrong, I would greatly appreciate it.

(For context, here is what I would write given my currently semi-formed understanding: "while it makes sense to compare ourselves to a time-line independent view of the world to test the probability that our assumptions about the world are correct, it does not make sense to assume that our assumptions about the world will guide the future.")

Comment author: philh 04 July 2016 09:19:50AM 2 points [-]

I'm not sure what the lesson is here. A sane forecaster could never have been accurate? That seems like it would need some justification.

Comment author: Tem42 23 July 2016 02:41:59AM 0 points [-]

A simple justification of a slightly less extreme position is easy enough: there were many sane people who did not predict the value of the internet, indicating that being sane and smart are not sufficient to predict such things.

There are plenty of quotes from people who were supposed to be experts (or at least well-educated) saything that heavier than air flight was impossible, computers would always be room-sized monstrosities of limited use, etc. I assume that this quote is pretty much the same idea (that future technology is unpredictable), but using a technology that is 1. more recent, and thus more relatable, and 2. not simply a matter of technology, but of adapted use; that is, most smart people might have guessed that the early internet could be made faster, webpages better, and the network more comprehensive. They simply didn't see the value that this would produce, and so assumed that technology would not move in that direction.

Comment author: Nisan 10 May 2013 05:28:22PM *  2 points [-]

Related idea: Become good at inducing ASMR in others. Maybe start with a youtube channel. Become the ASMR equivalent of a porn star. Most people who experience ASMR probably do not know it Is A Thing, so with aggressive marketing maybe you could make some money.

Comment author: Tem42 15 July 2016 05:13:45AM 0 points [-]

May not be as effective as you hope. I experience this and find it vaguely annoying. The only people who have a reason to talk/post about it are the people who enjoy it, but that doesn't mean that they are in the majority.

Comment author: Estarlio 12 May 2013 07:17:36PM 0 points [-]

Does anyone know off-hand whether this effect remains or is as strong with introverts?

Comment author: Tem42 15 July 2016 03:21:14AM 0 points [-]

I am an introvert and this effect is strong for me. But the best way to see if it works for you is to try it.

Comment author: diegocaleiro 12 May 2013 03:41:52PM 13 points [-]

I don't mean to cut the party short, but living for years in a poor country is not as awesome as it sounds. What seems awesome instead is to go for poor countries for 6 to 8 months per year, and live with your parents or someone who loves you a lot in the other 4 months every year. I've met a Slovenian programmer who did that, knew 10 languages, worked in London for 4 months per year and seemed to have pretty much nailed the "maxing out on hedons" lifestyle.

Comment author: Tem42 15 July 2016 02:06:05AM 0 points [-]

After 6 years one could then live fairly well in a relatively poor country on 15k.

Additionally, there are ways to get people to pay for your living costs in very poor countries. If you live in the US and are looking for a fun but not too easy early retirement, spending two years in the Peace Corps is not a bad way to go -- if you do want to spend a few extra thousand on living expenses it will go a lot further than it would in America, and if you just want to let your retirement funds gather a few years of additional interest you can do that. The PC does take married couples and loves people with college degrees and work experience. No kids, though.

Comment author: Caspian 11 May 2013 01:56:20AM 30 points [-]

When I was having a lot of trouble getting out of bed reasonably promptly in the mornings: practice getting out of bed - but not after just having woken up, that's what I was having trouble with in the first place. No, during the day, having been up for a while, go lie in bed for a couple of minutes with the alarm set, then get up when it goes off. Also, make this a pleasant routine with stretching, smiling and deep breathing.

I found this idea on the net here, which may have more details: http://www.stevepavlina.com/blog/2006/04/how-to-get-up-right-away-when-your-alarm-goes-off/

I tried it and it seemed to help a lot for a while, and I feel more in control of my weekend mornings.

Comment author: Tem42 15 July 2016 01:51:02AM 0 points [-]

I have found that I wake much more effectively when the alarm is very quiet; rather than waking suddenly and having my brain rebel, I wake over the course of 30 second to 2 minutes. This works much better than it has any reason to.

The downside is that a very quiet alarm is easy to miss, and if there is environmental noise at the same time as the alarm goes off (from the air coming on to trash pickup), it's much too easy to sleep through. The solution that worked best for me was to run a white noise generator (actually an air filter) all night; this raised the noise threshold so that a louder alarm was needed to still be a quiet-but-audible alarm; the louder alarm is loud enough to be heard over the white noise, and thus loud enough to be heard over any environmental noise that is not also loud enough to wake me.

Another useful trick, albeit slightly more painful, is to get up at the same time every morning. This means also on weekends. It really does help, but requires that you are willing to actually wake up enough to get out of bed. Once you are 'up', you may decide to just read Facebook for 5 minutes before going back to bed (I usually just went to the bathroom and then read in bed for 15 minutes before falling back to sleep). I only use this when I have a significant change in schedule, and only for a couple of weeks.

Meetup : Greenville, NC meetup

0 Tem42 13 July 2016 08:08PM

Discussion article for the meetup : Greenville, NC meetup

WHEN: 23 July 2016 04:00:00PM (-0400)

WHERE: Sheppard Memorial Library, 530 Evans St, Greenville, NC 27858

We are meeting in the group study room; the front desk can direct you. The central goal of this meetup is to determine interest in a local group; if you are interested but cannot make it, please message me.

Discussion article for the meetup : Greenville, NC meetup

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