Meetup : London Social Meetups - 23/03 and 30/03
Discussion article for the meetup : London Social Meetups - 23/03 and 30/03
LessWrong London is having another Social Meetup this Sunday (23/03) and one on the Sunday after that (30/03) at 2:00 PM. We are meeting at our usual venue - The Shakespeare's Head by Holborn tube station.
Note: If the Weather forecast for the 30th is good, the location for the Meetup on that day might be changed to a park so make sure to check for comments here or on our mailing list prior to coming.
There is no fixed topic of discussion nor is there anything planned so be prepared for anything. There will be a sign identifying us (hopefully one with a paperclip) and if you have any problems feel free to contact me by e-mail - Tenoke[at]Tenoke.com or by phone - 07425168803.
If you want more information about the meetup or anything else come by our mailing list or alternatively to the facebook group
Discussion article for the meetup : London Social Meetups - 23/03 and 30/03
Meetup : London Games Meetup 09/03 [VENUE CHANGE: PENDEREL'S OAK!], + Social 16/02
Discussion article for the meetup : London Games Meetup 09/03, + Socials 02/03 and 16/02
LessWrong London's next non-social gathering is going to be on the 9th of March and is going to be a Games Meetup at a new location - The Penderel's Oak pub located about 5-10 minutes away from our usual spot in the middle between Chancery Lane and Holborn stations (I'd recommend looking at the map to get a better idea of the location)
Thanks to Phil we have a wide range of choices.The main ones are Resistance, Coup and Zendo. Alternatively, we will be able to play Ingenious, Go, Diplomacy (only if people insist on it) or card games.
We are also having socials on the 16th of March as the Meetups are currently a weekly event.
If you want more information about the meetups or anything else come by our google group or alternatively to our facebook group.
If you have trouble finding us - feel free to call or text me on 07425168803.
Discussion article for the meetup : London Games Meetup 09/03, + Socials 02/03 and 16/02
Identity and Death
This recent SMBC comic illustrates the old question of what exactly is you by referencing the Star Trek Teleporter Problem. Do you actually get teleported or does the teleporter just kill you before making a copy of you somewhere else?
Well, the answer that a lot of rationalist seem to accept is Pattern Identity Theory proposed by Hans Moravec (skim the link or do a google search for the theory if you have no idea what I am referring to). I am very sympathetic to this view and it definitely ties with my limited understanding of physics and biology - elementary particles are interchangeable and do not have 'identity', at least some of the atoms in your body (including some of those who form neurons) get replaced over time etc.
This is all fine and dandy, but if you take this view to its logical extreme it looks like a sufficently modified version of you shouldn't actually qualify as you - the difference in the pattern might be as great or greater than the difference in the patterns of any two random people.
Let's say something happens to Eliezer and he gets successfully cryo-preserved in 2014. Then 80 years later the singularity hasn't arrived yet but the future is still pretty good - everyone is smart and happy due to enhancements, ageing is a thing of the past and we have the technology to wake cryopreserved people up. The people in that future build Eliezer a new body, restore the information from his brain and apply all the standard enhancements on him and then they wake him up. The person who wakes up remembers all that good old Eliezer did and seems to act like you would expect an enhanced Eliezer to act. However, if you examine things closely the difference between 2014!Eliezer and 2094!Eliezer is actually bigger than the difference between 2014!Eliezer and let's say 2014!Yvain due to having all the new standard enhancements. Does that person really qualify as the same person according to Pattern Identity Theory, then? Sure, he originates from Eliezer and arguably the difference between the two is similar to the difference between kid!Eliezer and adult!Eliezer but is it really the same pattern? If you believe that you really are the pattern then how can you not think of Eliezer!2014 as a dead man?
Sure, you could argue that continual change (as opposed to the sudden change in the cryo!Eliezer scenario) or 'evolution of the pattern' is in some way relevant but why would that be? The only somewhat reasonable argument for that I've seen is 'because it looks like this is what I care about'. That's fine with me but my personal preference is closer to 'I want to continue existing and experiencing things'; I don't care if anything that looks like me or thinks it's me is experiencing stuff - I want me (whatever that is) to continue living and doing stuff. And so far it looks really plausible that me is the pattern which sadly leaves me to think that maybe changing the pattern is a bad idea.
I know that this line of thinking can damn you to eternal stagnation but it seems worth exploring before teleporters, uploading, big self-enhancements etc. come along which is why I am starting this discussion. Additionally, a part of the problem might be that there is some confusion about definitions going on but I'd like to see where. Furthermore, 'the difference in the pattern' seems both somehow hard to quantify and more importantly - it doesn't look like something that could have a clear cut-off as in 'if the pattern differs by more than 10% you are a different person'. At any rate, whatever that cut-off is, it still seems pretty clear that tenoke!2000 differs enough from me to be considered dead.
As an exercise at home I will leave you to think about what this whole line of thinking implies if you combine it with MWII-style quantum immortality.
Meetup : London Practical Meetup - Calibration Training!
Discussion article for the meetup : London Practical Meetup - Calibration Training!
LessWrong London is having another meetup this Sunday (08/12) at 2:00 PM. We are meeting at our usual venue - The Shakespeare's Head by Holborn tube station and this is our first practical in a while.
The aim of the meetup will be improvement of our probability estimates methods by means of calibration. My current plan is to compile a list of statements and questions, check their answers, gamify the procedure and ask everyone to give Percentages and/or Confidence Intervals regarding their predictions of said statements and question. E.g. 'I assign a 70% chance that the statement 'There will be more people at the Calibration Training practical than at the Social Meetup the prior week " is true'. As I mentioned, I inted to gamify things at least a little bit and there will likely be different 'rounds' of question as well as 'winners'.
Note: you are not required to prepare in any way as everything will be explained during the meetup, however it will help if you arrive on time.
Reminder: The LW London Meetups are currently a weekly event - Every Sunday at 2:00 PM!
If you want more information about the meetup or anything else come by our google group or alternatively to our facebook group.
Discussion article for the meetup : London Practical Meetup - Calibration Training!
Meetup : London Social Meetup, 01/12/2013
Discussion article for the meetup : London Social Meetup, 01/12/2013
LessWrong London is having another meetup this Sunday (01/12) at 2:00 PM. We are meeting at our usual venue - The Shakespeare's Head by Holborn tube station. There is no fixed topic of discussion nor is there anything planned so be prepared for anything. There will be a sign identifying us (with a paperclip on the sign) and if you have any problems feel free to contact me by e-mail - Tenoke[at]Tenoke.com or by phone - 07425168803.
Reminder: The LW London Meetups are currently a weekly event - Every Sunday at 2:00 PM!
If you want more information about the meetup or anything else come by our google group or alternatively to our facebook group.
Discussion article for the meetup : London Social Meetup, 01/12/2013
Meetup : London Social Meetup, 24/11/2013 [Back to the Shakespeare's Head]
Discussion article for the meetup : London Social Meetup, 24/11/2013 [Back to the Shakespeare's Head]
LessWrong London is having another meetup this Sunday (24/11) at 2:00 PM. We are back to our usual venue - The Shakespeare's Head by Holborn tube station.
There is no fixed topic of discussion nor is there anything planned so be prepared for anything. There will be a sign identifying us (hopefully one with a paperclip) and if you have any problems feel free to contact me by e-mail - Tenoke[at]Tenoke.com or by phone - 07425168803.
Reminder: The LW London Meetups are currently a weekly event - Every Sunday at 2:00 PM!
If you want more information about the meetup or anything else come by our google group or alternatively to the facebook group
Discussion article for the meetup : London Social Meetup, 24/11/2013 [Back to the Shakespeare's Head]
Googling is the first step. Consider adding scholarly searches to your arsenal.
Related to: Scholarship: How to Do It Efficiently
There has been a slightly increased focus on the use of search engines lately. I agree that using Google is an important skill - in fact I believe that for years I have came across as significantly more knowledgeable than I actually am just by quickly looking for information when I am asked something.
However, There are obviously some types of information which are more accessible by Google and some which are less accessible. For example distinct characteristics, specific dates of events etc. are easily googleable1 and you can expect to quickly find accurate information on the topic. On the other hand, if you want to find out more ambiguous things such as the effects of having more friends on weight or even something like the negative and positive effects of a substance - then googling might leave you with some contradicting results, inaccurate information or at the very least it will likely take you longer to get to the truth.
I have observed that in the latter case (when the topic is less 'googleable') most people, even those knowledgeable of search engines and 'science' will just stop searching for information after not finding anything on Google or even before2 unless they are actually willing to devote a lot of time to find it. This is where my recommendation comes - consider doing a scholarly search like the one provided by Google Scholar.
And, no, I am not suggesting that people should read a bunch of papers on every topic that they discuss. By using some simple heuristics we can easily gain a pretty good picture of the relevant information on a large variety of topics in a few minutes (or less in some cases). The heuristics are as follows:
1. Read only or mainly the abstracts. This is what saves you time but gives you a lot of information in return and this is the key to the most cost-effective way to quickly find information from a scholary search. Often you wouldn't have immediate access to the paper anyway, however you can almost always read the abstract. And if you follow the other heuristics you will still be looking at relatively 'accurate' information most of the time. On the other hand, if you are looking for more information and have access to the full paper then the discussion+conclusion section are usually the second best thing to look at; and if you are unsure about the quality of the study, then you should also look at the method section to identify its limitations.3
2. Look at the number of citations for an article. The higher the better. Less than 10 citations in most cases means that you can find a better paper.
3. Look at the date of the paper. Often more recent = better. However, you can expect less citations for more recent articles and you need to adjust accordingly. For example if the article came out in 2013 but it has already been cited 5 times this is probably a good sign. For new articles the subheuristic that I use is to evaluate the 'accuracy' of the article by judging the author's general credibilty instead - argument from authority.
4. Meta-analyses/Systematic Reviews are your friend. This is where you can get the most information in the least amount of time!
5. If you cannot find anything relevant fiddle with your search terms in whatever ways you can think of (you usually get better at this over time by learning what search terms give better results).
That's the gist of it. By reading a few abstracts in a minute or two you can effectively search for information regarding our scientific knowledge on a subject with almost the same speed as searching for specific information on topics that I dubbed googleable. In my experience scholarly searches on pretty much anything can be really beneficial. Do you believe that drinking beer is bad but drinking wine is good? Search on Google Scholar! Do you think that it is a fact that social interaction is correlated with happiness? Google Scholar it! Sure, some things might seem obvious to you that X but it doesn't hurt to search on google scholar for a minute just to be able to cite a decent study on the topic to those X disbelievers.
This post might not be useful to some people but it is my belief that scholarly searches are the next step of efficient information seeking after googling and that most LessWrongers are not utilizing this enough. Hell, I only recently started doing this actively and I still do not do it enough. Furthermore I fully agree with this comment by gwern:
My belief is that the more familiar and skilled you are with a tool, the more willing you are to reach for it. Someone who has been programming for decades will be far more willing to write a short one-off program to solve a problem than someone who is unfamiliar and unsure about programs (even if they suspect that they could get a canned script copied from StackExchange running in a few minutes). So the unwillingness to try googling at all is at least partially a lack of googling skill and familiarity.
A lot of people will be reluctant to start doing scholarly searches because they have barely done any or because they have never done it. I want to tell those people to still give it a try. Start by searching for something easy, maybe something that you already know from lesswrong or from somewhere else. Read a few abstracts, if you do not understand a given abstract try finding other papers on the topic - some authors adopt a more technical style of writing, others focus mainly on statistics, etc. but you should still be able to find some good information if you read multiple abstracts and identify the main points. If you cannot find anythinr relevant then move on and try another topic.
P.S. In my opinion, when you are comfortable enough to have scholarly searches as a part of your arsenal you will rarely have days when there is nothing to check for. If you are doing 1 scholarly search per month for example you are most probably not fully utilizing this skill.
1. By googleable I mean that the search terms are google friendly - you can relatively easily and quickly find relevant and accurate information.
2. If the people in question have developed a sense for what type of information is more accessible by google then they might not even try to google the less accessible-type things.
3. If you want to get a better and more accurate view on the topic in question you should read the full paper. The heuristic of mainly focusing on abstracts is cost-effective but it invariably results in a loss of information.
Meetup : 18/11 London Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : 18/11 London Meetup
A meetup at 2 pm on the 18th of November at the Shakespeares's head pub by holborn tube station. Everyone is welcome to attend.
Discussion article for the meetup : 18/11 London Meetup
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