Comment author:Felix2
21 September 2007 06:23:01AM
-6 points
[-]
Here's a candidate for a question to illustrate a couple of related biases:
Given the following two dice roll records:
1: HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
2: THTTHTHHTHTTHHHTTHTHTTHHTHHTTTH
Which of the following is true:
A) 1 is more probable than 2.
B) 2 is more probable than 1.
C) Both are equally probable.
Now, I predict that there will be at least 1 "normal" person who answers C.
"Unbelievable," you say?
Stay tuned!
I will make a stronger prediction: If this question were posed to 1000 randomly selected, well-dressed, Nordic-looking people found purposely walking the downtown sidewalks during daytime in a large American city (with luck, eliminating the possibility that I cheat by selecting 1000 people from insane asylums or from people who know no English), I predict that there will be at least 1 person who answers C.
Why? Because it is a well known fact that there exist, in much larger numbers than 1 in 1000, people capable, willing, and even eager to use the "toilet paper tube fallacy". Any of such people combined with any of those who are susceptible to the "literalist fallacy" will answer C.
Let me make a stronger prediction. Even given a 4th choice, so slyly left out:
D) Beats me.
I predict that, still, at least one person will select C.
Now, list the following in order of probability:
a) That one person is a moron.
b) That one person is a computer programmer.
c) That one person is a card shark.
d) That one person believed that choice B was to be taken literally. That is, that B really (really!) means that the very first coin flip came out tails - NOT HEADS! - tails, the second heads, the third tails, and so on.
e) That one person ignored as much context around the dice roll question as he could. That is, that person pretended he was similar to a computer in seeing the world through what amounts to a toilet paper tube. Just the facts, Ma'am.
f) That one person is a card shark and a computer programmer.
g) b and c
h) d and e and f
i) All of the above.
"h", anyone? :)
But, a thought on this question: How to avoid the conjunction fallacy?
Perhaps a better way to do so than keying on the word "and", (which, as we all know, means "OR", but not "OR and not AND") is to key on the word "probability". That is, when you see that word (or sense its meaning) as a goal, hand the question to the modern equivalent of a four-function calculator and let it grind out the numbers. To do so otherwise would be like multiplying 10821 by 11409 in your head, wouldn't it?
= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
Here's a candidate for a question to illustrate a couple of related biases:
Given the following two dice roll records:
1: HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
2: THTTHTHHTHTTHHHTTHTHTTHHTHHTTTH
Which of the following is true:
A) 1 is more probable than 2.
B) 2 is more probable than 1.
C) Both are equally probable.
Now, I predict that there will be at least 1 "normal" person who answers C.
"Unbelievable," you say?
Stay tuned!
I will make a stronger prediction: If this question were posed to 1000 randomly selected, well-dressed, Nordic-looking people found purposely walking the downtown sidewalks during daytime in a large American city (with luck, eliminating the possibility that I cheat by selecting 1000 people from insane asylums or from people who know no English), I predict that there will be at least 1 person who answers C.
Why? Because it is a well known fact that there exist, in much larger numbers than 1 in 1000, people capable, willing, and even eager to use the "toilet paper tube fallacy". Any of such people combined with any of those who are susceptible to the "literalist fallacy" will answer C.
Let me make a stronger prediction. Even given a 4th choice, so slyly left out:
D) Beats me.
I predict that, still, at least one person will select C.
Now, list the following in order of probability:
a) That one person is a moron.
b) That one person is a computer programmer.
c) That one person is a card shark.
d) That one person believed that choice B was to be taken literally. That is, that B really (really!) means that the very first coin flip came out tails - NOT HEADS! - tails, the second heads, the third tails, and so on.
e) That one person ignored as much context around the dice roll question as he could. That is, that person pretended he was similar to a computer in seeing the world through what amounts to a toilet paper tube. Just the facts, Ma'am.
f) That one person is a card shark and a computer programmer.
g) b and c
h) d and e and f
i) All of the above.
"h", anyone? :)
But, a thought on this question: How to avoid the conjunction fallacy?
Perhaps a better way to do so than keying on the word "and", (which, as we all know, means "OR", but not "OR and not AND") is to key on the word "probability". That is, when you see that word (or sense its meaning) as a goal, hand the question to the modern equivalent of a four-function calculator and let it grind out the numbers. To do so otherwise would be like multiplying 10821 by 11409 in your head, wouldn't it?
Okay, Felix, I have read your painfully detailed description of a hypothetically situation. Now I wanna know what your point is.