We have managed to create such a sophisticated brain scanner, that it can tell whether a person is thinking of a cat or not. Someone is put into the machine, and the machine outputs that the person is not thinking of a cat. The person objects and says that he is thinking of a cat. What will the observing AI make of that inconsistency? What part of the observation is broken and results in nonconformity of the whole?
1) The brain scanner is broken 2) The person is broken In order to solve this problem, the AI may have to be able to conceptualize the fact that the brain scanner is a deterministic machine which simply accepts X as input and outputs Y. The scanner does not understand the information it is processing, and the act of processing information does not alter its structure. But the person is different.
I don't really understand this part.
"The scanner does not understand the information but the person does" sounds like some variant of Searle's Chinese Room argument when presented without further qualifiers. People in AI tend to regard Searle as a confused distraction.
The intelligent agent model still deals with deterministic machines that take input and produce output, but it incorporates the possibility of changing the agent's internal state by presenting the output function as just taking the entire input history X* as an input to the function that produces the latest output Y, so that a different history of inputs can lead to a different output on the latest input, just like it can with humans and more sophisticated machines.
I suppose the idea here is that there is some difference whether there is a human being sitting in the scanner, or, say, a toy robot with a state of two bits where one is I am thinking about cats and the other is I am broken and will lie about thinking about cats. With the robot, we could just check the "broken" bit as well from the scan when the robot is disagreeing with the scanner, and if it is set, conclude that the robot is broken.
I'm not seeing how humans must be fundamentally different. The scanner can already do the extremely difficult task of mapping a raw brain state to the act of thinking about a cat, it should also be able to tell from the brain state whether the person has something going on in their brain that will make them deny thinking about a cat. Things being deterministic and predictable from knowing their initial state doesn't mean they can't have complex behavior reacting to a long history of sensory inputs accompanied by a large amount of internal processing that might correspond quite well to what we think of as reflection or understanding.
Sorry I keep skipping over your formalism stuff, but I'm still not really grasping the underlying assumptions behind this approach. (The underlying approach in the computer science approach are, roughly, "the physical world exists, and is made of lots of interacting, simple, Turing-computable stuff and nothing else", "animals and humans are just clever robots made of the stuff", "magical souls aren't involved, not even if they wear a paper bag that says 'conscious experience' on their head")
The whole philosophical theory of everything thing does remind me of this strange thing from a year ago, where the building blocks for the theory were made out of nowadays more fashionable category theory rather than set theory though.
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The omitted information in this approach is information with a high Kolmogorov complexity, which is omitted in favor of information with low Kolmogorov complexity. A very rough analogy would be to describe humans as having a bias towards ideas expressible in few words of English in favor of ideas that need many words of English to express. Using Kolmogorov complexity for sequence prediction instead of English language for ideas in the construction gets rid of the very many problems of rigor involved in the latter, but the basic idea is pretty much the same. You look into things that are briefly expressible in favor of things that must be expressed in length. The information isn't permanently omitted, it's just depriorized. The algorithm doesn't start looking at the stuff you need long sentences to describe before it has convinced itself that there are no short sentences that describe the observations it wants to explain in a satisfactory way.
One bit of context that is assumed is that the surrounding universe is somewhat amenable to being Kolmogorov-compressed. That is, there are some recurring regularities that you can begin to discover. The term "lawful universe" sometimes thrown around in LW probably refers to something similar.
Solomonoff's universal induction would not work in a completely chaotic universe, where there are no regularities for Kolmogorov compression to latch on. You'd also be unlikely to find any sort of native intelligent entities in such universes. I'm not sure if this means that the Solomonoff approach is philosophically untenable, but needing to have some discoverable regularities to begin with before discovering regularities with induction becomes possible doesn't strike me as that great a requirement.
If the problem of context is about exactly where you draw the data for the sequence which you will then try to predict with Solomonoff induction, in a lawless universe you wouldn't be able to infer things no matter which simple instrumentation you picked, while in a lawful universe you could pick all sorts of instruments, tracking the change of light during time, tracking temperature, tracking the luminousity of the Moon, for simple examples, and you'd start getting Kolmogorov-compressible data where the induction system could start figuring repeating periods.
The core thing "independent of context" in all this is that all the universal induction systems are reduced to basically taking a series of numbers as input, and trying to develop an efficient predictor for what the next number will be. The argument in the paper is that this construction is basically sufficient for all the interesting things an induction solution could do, and that all the various real-world cases where induction is needed can be basically reduced into such a system by describing the instrumentation which turns real-world input into a time series of numbers.
Okay. In this case, the article does seem to begin to make sense. Its connection to the problem of induction is perhaps rather thin. The idea of using low Kolmogorov complexity as justification for an inductive argument cannot be deduced as a theorem of something that's "surely true", whatever that might mean. And if it were taken as an axiom, philosophers would say: "That's not an axiom. That's the conclusion of an inductive argument you made! You are begging the question!"
However, it seems like advancements in computation theory have made people able to do at least remotely practical stuff on areas, that bear resemblance to more inert philosophical ponderings. That's good, and this article might even be used as justification for my theory RP - given that the use of Kolmogorov complexity is accepted. I was not familiar with the concept of Kolmogorov complexity despite having heard of it a few times, but my intuitive goal was to minimize the theory's Kolmogorov complexity by removing arbitrary declarations and favoring symmetry.
I would say, that there are many ways of solving the problem of induction. Whether a theory is a solution to the problem of induction depends on whether it covers the entire scope of the problem. I would say this article covers half of the scope. The rest is not covered, to my knowledge, by anyone else than Robert Pirsig and experts of Buddhism, but these writings are very difficult to approach analytically. Regrettably, I am still unable to publish the relativizability article, which is intended to succeed in the analytic approach.
In any case, even though the widely rejected "statistical relevance" and this "Kolmogorov complexity relevance" share the same flaw, if presented as an explanation of inductive justification, the approach is interesting. Perhaps, even, this paper should be titled: "A Formalization of Occam's Razor Principle". Because that's what it surely seems to be. And I think it's actually an achievement to formalize that principle - an achievement more than sufficient to justify the writing of the article.