Comment author: TylerK 10 June 2010 11:58:28PM 1 point [-]

I'd like to meet some LW people. Couple suggestions in/around Harvard Sq: http://www.cambridgecommonrestaurant.com/ http://www.grendelsden.com/ http://www.johnharvards.com

Comment author: logical 04 June 2010 05:13:11PM -4 points [-]

"Your analogy doesn't hold, because each spin of the roulette wheel is a separate trial, while choosing a door and then having the option to choose another are causally linked."

No, they are not causally linked. It does not matter what door you choose, you don't influence the outcome in any way at all. Ultimately, you have to choose between two doors. In fact, you don't "choose" a door at first at all. Because there is always at least one goat behind a door you didn't choose, you cannot influence the next action, which is for Monty to open a door with a goat. At that point it's a choice between two doors.

Comment author: TylerK 04 June 2010 06:22:16PM 5 points [-]

The thing you might be overlooking is that Monty does not open a door at random, he opens a door guaranteed to contain a goat. When I first heard this problem, I didn't get it until that was explicitly pointed out to me.

If Monty opens a door at random (and the door could contain a car), then there is no causal link and therefore the probability would be as you describe.