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While it is true – it is Katja Grace's Doomsday argument in a nutshell, it doesn't take into account possibility of simulations. But most paperclipers will create many instrumental simulations, and in this case we are in it.
I had exactly the same insight as James_Miller a couple of days ago. Are you sure this is Grace's Doomsday argument? Her reasoning seems to be rather along the line that it is more likely that we'll be experiencing a late Great Filter (argued by SIA which I'm not familiar with). The idea here is rather that for life to likely exist for a prolonged time there has to be a late Great Filter (like space travel being extremely difficult or UFAI), because otherwise Paperclippers would quickly conquer the entire space (at least in universes like ours where all points in space can be travelled to in principle).
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Well, consider a neural net for distinguishing dogs from cats. This neural network might develop features that look like "dog-like eyes" and "cat-like eyes," which are pattern-matched across the image. Images with more activation on the first feature are claimed to be dogs and images with more activation on the second feature are claimed to be cats, along with input from many other features. This is fairly typical-sounding.
Now imagine how bonkers a neural net would have to be in order to reproduce the generative process behind the images! Leaving aside simulations of the early universe, our neural network should still have a solid understanding of the biology of dogs and cats, the different grooming and adornment practices, macroscopic physics and physiology that leads to poses, and the preferences of people taking and storing photographs.
Isn't the idea more that the neural network just learns rough subgraphs of the underlying DAG that captures the causal structure up to quantum detail? Whole-part relationships are such subgraphs: a person being present causes a face to be present, which causes eyes to be present etc.