Comment author: ChristianKl 17 June 2016 01:19:32PM 1 point [-]

What kind of hourly wage do you have that you think you should vote for 10 cents?

Comment author: Val 23 June 2016 06:59:44PM 0 points [-]

There are some people who think punishment and reward work linearly.

If I remember correctly (please correct me if I'm wrong) even Eliezer himself believes that if we assign a pain value in the single digits to very slightly pinching someone so they barely feel anything, and a pain value in the millions to torturing someone with the worst possible torture, then you should choose torturing a thousand people over slightly pinching half of the planet's inhabitants, if your goal was to minimize suffering. With such a logic, you could assign rewards and punishments to anything, and calculate pretty strange things out of that.

Comment author: pianoforte611 18 June 2016 05:34:52PM 2 points [-]

I don't understand why you would want this. It doesn't take exactly X times as much effort to provide X times as much productivity, but its a way better approximation than a log scale. Is the goal to discourage commerce, and promote self sufficiency?

Comment author: Val 19 June 2016 12:59:01AM 0 points [-]

Another problem would be, that unless this system suddenly and magically got applied to the whole world, it would not be competitive. It can't grow from a small set of members because the limits it imposes would hinder those who would have contributed the most to the size and power of the economy. By shrinking your economy, you will become less competitive against those who don't adopt this new system.

In response to Crazy Ideas Thread
Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 18 June 2016 07:16:47AM *  1 point [-]

A form of society that is based on a social contract where the rules (like the rules of e.g. democracy) are constructed in such a way that

  • individuals are (monetarily) rewarded if they take more responsibility (for other people basically) in a way that a doubled responsibility leads to a unit increase in reward (with a unit reward for taking responsibility for one self).
  • sub groups can make individual decisions and take local responsibility (and e.g. distribute the reward according to the rules)
  • there is an increase in power with group size but limited in a mathematically precise way
  • optional: Limitation of private property to that which you can actually regularly use.

Thus there is a limit to income in a mathematically precise way (logarithm of total social product).

ADDED: Construct this in a way that it can be embedded in existing society (via existing contracts) such that it can grow from a small set of members to all.

Comment author: Val 18 June 2016 03:07:47PM 0 points [-]

I fear some people will quickly learn how to game the system. No wonder our current society is so complicated, every time a group came up with a simple and brilliant way to create the perfect utopia, it always failed miserably.

(also, try selling your idea to the average voter, I would love to see their faces when you mention "logarithm of total social product")

Comment author: SquirrelInHell 01 June 2016 04:38:29AM 1 point [-]

The first story I saw on the main page was "The Metropolitan Man".

I thought "OK, I'll give it 10 minutes, see how far it can get".

After 1,5 minute the story displayed a total lack of understanding of middle-school level physics.

Superman prevented an accident by flying into the space between two cars and stopping them with his hands. However, a deceleration on the distance equal to the length of one human arm, is no less lethal than over the (approximately equal) length of the average crumple zone.

I mean, I don't want to poop on the party, but seriously?

Comment author: Val 01 June 2016 09:19:00PM 2 points [-]

Cars in the 1930's didn't have such crumple zones as modern cars do. Also, in the city they don't move as fast as on the freeway. Even a small difference might decide between life and death.

I would suggest giving the story the benefit of the doubt. It must stay at least somewhat true to the style of the comics, but at the same time explore the world in a more serious and realistic tone. And it manages that quite well, it's worth reading.

Comment author: Viliam 30 May 2016 08:44:53AM *  -1 points [-]

Some people believe that altruism has evolved through helping your relatives or through helping others to help you in return. I was thinking about it; on the surface the idea looks good -- if you already have this system in place, it is easy to see how it benefits those involved -- but that doesn't explain how the system could have appeared in the first place. Anyone knows the standard answer?

Imagine that you are literally the first organism who by random mutation achieved a gene for "helping those who help you". How specifically does this gene increase your fitness, if there is no one else to reciprocate?

Or imagine that you are literally the first organism who by random mutation achieved a gene for "helping your siblings". How specifically does this gene increase your fitness, or the fitness of the gene itself, if your siblings do not have a copy of this gene?

In other words, it seems simple to explain how these kinds of altruism can work when they are already an established system, but it is more difficult to explain how it could work when it is new.

And this all is a huge simplification; for example, I doubt that "helping those who help you" could be achieved by a single mutation, since it involves multiple parts like "noticing that someone helped you", "remembering the individual who helped you" and "helping the individual who helped you in the past". Plus the problem of how to start this chain of mutual cooperation.

My guess is that... nygehvfz pbhyq unir ribyirq guebhtu frkhny fryrpgvba. Yrg'f rkcynva vg ol funevat sbbq jvgu bguref. Svefg, vaqvivqhnyf abgvpr jub vf tbbq ng tngurevat sbbq, naq gurl ribyir nggenpgvba gbjneqf tbbq sbbq pbyyrpgbef. Gung znxrf vzzrqvngr frafr orpnhfr vg vapernfrf fheiviny bs gur puvyqera, vs gurl nyfb trg gur trarf tbbq sbe tngurevat sbbq. Nsgre guvf nggenpgvba rkvfgf jvguva gur fcrpvrf, gur arkg fgrc pbhyq or fvtanyyvat: vs lbh unir fbzr rkgen sbbq lbh qba'g npghnyyl arrq, oevat vg naq ivfvoyl qebc vg arne bgure vaqvivqhnyf, fb gung bguref abgvpr lbh unir zber sbbq guna lbh pna rng. Ntnva, guvf znxrf vzzrqvngr frafr, orpnhfr vg znxrf lbh zber nggenpgvir. Abgvpr ubj arvgure "urycvat lbh eryngvirf" abe "urycvat gubfr jub uryc lbh" jnf arprffnel gb ribyir urycvat vaqvfpevzvangryl. Npghnyyl, gubfr pbhyq unir ribyirq yngre, nf shegure vzcebirzragf bs be nqqvgvbaf gb gur vaqvfpevzvangr urycvat.

Comment author: Val 30 May 2016 03:19:59PM 1 point [-]

Imagine that you are literally the first organism who by random mutation achieved a gene for "helping those who help you"

Not all information is encoded genetically. Many kinds of information have to be learned from the parents or from society.

Comment author: gwern 23 May 2016 03:04:34AM 17 points [-]

Misunderstandings and ignorance of GCTA seem to be quite pervasive, so I've tried to write a Wikipedia article on it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GCTA

Comment author: Val 25 May 2016 07:24:26PM 0 points [-]

One problem I can see at first glance that the article doesn't look like a Wikipedia article, but as a textbook or part of a publication. The goal of a Wikipedia article should be for a wide audience to understand the basics of something, and not a treatise only experts can comprehend.

What you wrote seems to be an impressive work, but it should be simplified (or at least the introduction of it), so that even non-experts can have a chance to at least learn what it is about.

Comment author: Val 02 May 2016 07:31:17AM 0 points [-]

It's not only in social sciences where this phenomena is common. The most striking examples I've seen were in medicine. An article is published, for example "supplement xyz slightly reduces a few of the side effects encountered during radiotherapy used in cancer treatment", which is then published in the media and on social networks as "What the medical industry doesn't want you to know: supplement xyz instantly cures all forms of cancer!". And often there is a link to the original publication, but people still believe it and forward it. And what's even more sad, probably many people then buy that supplement and don't seek medical help, believing that it alone will help.

Comment author: johnlawrenceaspden 14 April 2016 04:55:11PM 0 points [-]

We should keep running the trials until we can get p<0.05 and prove the hypothesis!

Comment author: Val 19 April 2016 09:17:34PM 0 points [-]

If this would be enough to prove the effectiveness of rain-dancing, then we would develop 30 different styles of rain-dance, test each of them, and with a very high chance we would get p<0.05 on at least one of them.

Sadly, the medical industry is full of such publications, because publishing new ideas is rewarded more than reproducing already published experiments.

Comment author: Val 19 April 2016 08:43:34PM *  0 points [-]

Since then I found a partially relevant, but very simple and effective "puzzle".

There are four cards in front of you on the desk. It is known, that every card has a numerical digit on one side, and a letter from the English alphabet on the other side.

You have to verify the theory that "if one side of the card has a vowel, the other side has an even number", and you are only allowed to flip two cards.

The cards in front of you are:

A T 7 2

Which cards will you flip?

(I wrote partially relevant because this is not an example for an unfalsifiable theory. The theory is falsifiable and the puzzle is solvable, the main point is that most people would pick the wrong answer because they will not try to falsify the theory)

Comment author: ike 12 April 2016 12:39:52PM 1 point [-]

I don't see how 2-4-6 is about falsifiability, so I may be misunderstanding your request. In the sequences, it was described as an example of positive bias. Clearly at every step, if the answer was "no" when you expected it to be "yes" the theory would be falsified.

Comment author: Val 12 April 2016 01:05:06PM 0 points [-]

I agree, but I see a connection to falsifiability in that most people don't even try to falsify their theories in this game, even if it would be possible.

A much better example than the 2-4-6 game would be one where the most obvious hypothesis was unfalsifiable.

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