I've suggested a pathway or two for this; if you have independent pathways, please try them / coordinate with Rob Bensinger about trying them. 

I think Anthropic leadership should feel free to propose a plan to do something that is not "ship SOTA tech like every other lab". In the absence of such a plan, seems like "stop shipping SOTA tech" is the obvious alternative plan.

Note that Anthropic, for the early years, did have a plan to not ship SOTA tech like every other lab, and changed their minds. (Maybe they needed the revenue to get the investment to keep up; maybe they needed the data for training; maybe they thought the first mover effects would be large and getting lots of enterprise clients or w/e was a critical step in some of their mid-game plans.) But I think many plans here fail once considered in enough detail.

I think more than this, when you look at the labs you will often see the breakthru work was done by a small handful of people or a small team, whose direction was not popular before their success. If just those people had decided to retire to the tropics, and everyone else had stayed, I think that would have made a huge difference to the trajectory. (What does it look like if Alec Radford had decided to not pursue GPT? Maybe the idea was 'obvious' and someone else gets it a month later, but I don't think so.)

I do think there's a Virtue of Silence problem here.

Like--I was a ML expert who, roughly ten years ago, decided to not advance capabilities and instead work on safety-related things, and when the returns to that seemed too dismal stopped doing that also. How much did my 'unilateral stopping' change things? It's really hard to estimate the counterfactual of how much I would have actually shifted progress; on the capabilities front I had several 'good ideas' years early but maybe my execution would've sucked, or I would've been focused on my bad ideas instead. (Or maybe me being at the OpenAI lunch table and asking people good questions would have sped the company up by 2%, or w/e, independent of my direct work.)

How many people are there like me? Also not obvious, but probably not that many. (I would guess most of them ended up in the MIRI orbit and I know them, but maybe there are lurkers--one of my friends in SF works for generic tech companies but is highly suspicious of working for AI companies, for reasons roughly downstream of MIRI, and there might easily be hundreds of people in that boat. But maybe the AI companies would only actually have wanted to hire ten of them, and the others objecting to AI work didn't actually matter.) 

I only like the first one more than the current cover, and I think then not by all that much. I do think this is the sort of thing that's relatively easy to focus group / get data on, and the right strategy is probably something that appeals to airport book buyers instead of LessWrongers.

I read an advance copy of the book; I liked it a lot. I think it's worth reading even if you're well familiar with the overall argument.

I think there's often been a problem, in discussing something for ~20 years, that the material is all 'out there somewhere' but unless you've been reading thru all of it, it's hard to have it in one spot. I think this book is good at presenting a unified story, and not getting bogged down in handling too many objections to not read smoothly or quickly. (Hopefully, the linked online discussions will manage to cover the remaining space in a more appropriately non-sequential fashion.)

Blue Prince came out a week ago; it's a puzzle game where a young boy gets a mysterious inheritance from his granduncle the baron; a giant manor house which rearranges itself every day, which he can keep if he manages to find the hidden 46th room.

The basic structure--slowly growing a mansion thru the placement of tiles--is simple enough and will be roughly familiar to anyone who's played Betrayal at House on the Hill in the last twenty years. It's atmospheric and interesting; I heard someone suggesting it might be this generation's Myst.

But this generation, as you might have noticed, loves randomness and procedural generation. In Myst, you wander from place to place, noticing clues; nearly all of the action happens in your head and your growing understanding of the world. If you know the solution to the final puzzle, you can speedrun Myst in less than a minute. Blue Prince is very nearly a roguelike instead of a roguelite, with accumulated clues driving most of your progression instead of in-game unlocks. But it's a world you build out with a game, giving you stochastic access to the puzzlebox.

This also means a lot of it ends up feeling like padding or filler. Many years ago I noticed that some games are really books or movies but wrap it in a game for some reason, and to check whether or not I actually like the book or movie enough to play the game. (Or, with games like Final Fantasy XVI, whether I was happier just watching the cutscenes on Youtube because that would let me watch them at 2x speed.) Eliezer had a tweet a while back:

My least favorite thing about some video games, many of which I think I might otherwise have been able to enjoy, is walking-dominated gameplay.   Where you spend most of your real clock seconds just walking between game locations.

Blue Prince has walking-dominated gameplay. It has pointless animations which are neat the first time but aggravating the fifth. It ends ups with a pace more like a board game's, where rather than racing from decision to decision you leisurely walk between them.

This is good in many ways--it gives you time to notice details, it gives you time to think. It wants to stop you from getting lost in resource management and tile placement and stay lost in the puzzles. But often you end up with a lead on one of the puzzles--"I need Room X to activate Room Y to figure out something"--but don't actually draw one of the rooms you need, or finally get both of the rooms but am missing the resources to actually use both of them.

And so you call it a day and try again. It's like Outer Wilds in that way--you can spend as many days as you like exploring and clue-hunting--but Outer Wilds is the same every time, and if you want to chase down a particular clue you can, if you know what you're doing. But Blue Prince will ask you for twenty minutes, and maybe deliver the clue; maybe not. Or you might learn that you needed to take more detailed notes on a particular thing, and now you have to go back to a room that doesn't exist today--exploring again until you find it, and then exploring again until you find the room that you were in originally.

So when I found the 46th room about 11 hours in--like many puzzle games, the first 'end' is more like a halfway point (or less)--I felt satisfied enough. There's more to do--more history to read, more puzzles to solve, more trophies to add to the trophy room--but the fruit are so high on the tree, and the randomly placed branches make it a bothersome climb.

The grass that can be touched is not the true grass.

What convinced me this made sense? 

• One of EA's most popular and profitable games is The Sims, which famously benefits from Sim irrationality. In The Sims 5, there will be bold and new exciting ways for your Sims to behave, and they'll be able to use our memetic virality model to have controversies and factional alignment. (Generating scissor statements is ethical so long as you're doing it in Simlish.)
• EA is investing in the hypothesis that bad writing drives underperformance. Having ratfic writers and philosophers look at Mass Effect 3 could have turned that from a disappointing series-ender (did you play Andromeda?) to a resounding triumph, and Dragon Age: Veilguard, despite being positively reviewed in general, was panned for its weak writing and became inflamed in culture war controversy. We've thought a lot about how misbehaving gods would act, in a way that I think would have made for a more compelling story and user experience.
• I didn't expect we could do anything relating to EA's flagship sports games (FIFA, NHL, Madden, etc.), but what astonished me was the potential to do the reverse. I don't know if we'll be able to get Gwern 2025 out in time, but look forward to Gwern 2026. They were practically salivating at the idea of being able to take a normally annual product, tied to sports schedules that won't be adjusted by advancing AI progress, and adapt it to a domain which, as part of an overall hyperbolic growth curve, will generate enough new content for a new release in ~half the time every new release. 

The short version is they're more used to adversarial thinking and security mindset, and don't have a culture of "fake it until you make it" or "move fast and break things".

I don't think it's obvious that it goes that way, but I think it's not obvious that it goes the other way.