Comment author: VijayKrishnan 26 July 2011 09:01:36AM 0 points [-]

I spent a bit of time looking at the details of Negative income tax. It is possible that I am not understanding the subtleties of Negative income tax but it appears that what I proposed is different and better than Negative Income tax. The reason for this is the following. In my scheme if a person is making wage y which is less than some threshold wage x, the state pays him (y-x)/2 which satisfied two objectives (1) People who are poorer get more state aid (2) People are still incentivized to work harder and make more money since their total payout (wages + government aid) is an increasing function of their wage. Let's take a negative tax rate of say -100%. Here a person making $1/hour gets another $1 from the government and a person making $4 per hour gets another $4 per hour from the government. This satisfies objective (2) above but not objective (1). Of course, one would argue that there would be tax slabs and consequently even different negative tax rates at different levels, but this problem exists within each tax slab. One could make each tax slab infinitesimally small and achieve the same effect as my proposal but that would be much like saying a function is linear, when it is really exponential and you are approximating it piecewise linear with really small pieces.

Comment author: VijayKrishnan 26 July 2011 05:17:06PM 1 point [-]

My bad. Friedman's NIT implementation seems to be the exact same thing I wrote. NIT seems like a really lousy name for it though, given that it naturally lends itself to the interpretation in my previous comment ; as a fixed percentage bonus added to your salary by the government within some wage band.

Comment author: orthonormal 25 July 2011 11:55:51PM 8 points [-]

That's a bit harsh. I think the problem is just that Vijay hadn't heard of Friedman's negative income tax proposal, and is reinventing the wheel. Also, it's not polished enough for the Main section.

Comment author: VijayKrishnan 26 July 2011 09:01:36AM 0 points [-]

I spent a bit of time looking at the details of Negative income tax. It is possible that I am not understanding the subtleties of Negative income tax but it appears that what I proposed is different and better than Negative Income tax. The reason for this is the following. In my scheme if a person is making wage y which is less than some threshold wage x, the state pays him (y-x)/2 which satisfied two objectives (1) People who are poorer get more state aid (2) People are still incentivized to work harder and make more money since their total payout (wages + government aid) is an increasing function of their wage. Let's take a negative tax rate of say -100%. Here a person making $1/hour gets another $1 from the government and a person making $4 per hour gets another $4 per hour from the government. This satisfies objective (2) above but not objective (1). Of course, one would argue that there would be tax slabs and consequently even different negative tax rates at different levels, but this problem exists within each tax slab. One could make each tax slab infinitesimally small and achieve the same effect as my proposal but that would be much like saying a function is linear, when it is really exponential and you are approximating it piecewise linear with really small pieces.

Comment author: lessdazed 26 July 2011 07:16:19AM *  1 point [-]

bouncing around as variables in your mind

I communicated my thoughts poorly.

Your preferred method of writing and talking

The reason why this kind of writing is sub-optimal is the following...It is not necessary to get verbose and guard yourself against any possibly misinterpretation in the world...this approach is extremely sub-optimal for communication.

To some extent, I assumed you wrote it as you thought it, considering how the other things were variables and just as a general sense I had. The sign that it's not abstract and that you are likely not holding off on proposing solutions is in how one thinks about it regardless of how one ultimately writes it.

I'm not primarily arguing that writing abstractly is always optimal (it admittedly may not have been here), but that thinking concretised is suboptimal, and writing concretised is correlated with concretized thinking. It's like Solomon's Problem.

So I have no large beef with how you wrote it, and I think you wrote the idea you had in a more than adequate way, but I and many others see it as not on topic. I think that that is because it is too specific. If this (ideal?) way of writing was a reflection of your thoughts, that should have been a hint that the thoughts weren't general enough.

My judgement is very susceptible to being wrong insofar as you may have thought about it totally abstractly and been good at avoiding too abstract writing; perhaps you have the good habit of translating the general thoughts in your mind into exemplary exemplary (sic) words, in which case you wouldn't have had this specific hint that this post was fairly off topic by its narrowness.

Again, I wasn't proposing a final solution that should be implemented tomorrow!

This confused me for a while. In my opinion, it is more specific ideas that are better prepared to be implemented, i.e. the applications of more general forms. I hadn't expected as a defense against a charge of being too practical and not theoretical enough an emphasis of the distance between the idea and its implementation. In general, one isn't concerned with perfection in the initial presentation of any idea, that makes sense, and one brings up the distance from implementation to show critics (that's me) are nitpicking (me?) and misguided (could be me) when they treat a floated idea inappropriately by subjecting it to a standard suited for smoothing a refined idea by removing the tiniest flaws.

As in this particular instance, I was arguing for generality as against practicality, I was truly confused when you spoke to the idea of differing standards being appropriate at different stages of an idea's life by using the language of distance to implementation. Eventually, I got it ;)

Comment author: VijayKrishnan 26 July 2011 08:05:43AM *  0 points [-]

| perhaps you have the good habit of translating the general thoughts in your mind into |exemplary exemplary (sic) words,

Yes I do and it has served me very well with regard to being a clearer communicator. It's all the more helpful when communicating with people less used to talking abstractly. I strongly suggest you try it. You'll save time and be more clear 95% of the time unless the people you are communicating with are some really biased sample.

| in which case you wouldn't have had this specific hint that this post was fairly off topic by its narrowness.

I have no idea what you are saying here :)
Comment author: lessdazed 26 July 2011 02:14:09AM 4 points [-]

I half agree. If you are going to, it had better be good. It's similar to how, if you're going to tell a racist joke, it had better be funny.

One thing that should have been noticed is the specificity of the proposal: (x-y)/2. The more specific the proposal, the more likely it is to be sub-optimal, "2" should have been a variable. The less the numbers are bouncing around as variables in your mind, the less likely it is you are thinking about it on a sufficiently general level for it to be fit for LW.

This is part of "hold off on proposing solutions until you have discussed the problem thoroughly".

Comment author: VijayKrishnan 26 July 2011 06:53:22AM *  0 points [-]

I am amused at this comment more than anything else. Of course it should have been (x-y)/r where 1<r<infinity. And of course correspondingly there is no reason to set x to exactly current minimum_wage* 1.5. Your preferred method of writing and talking reminds me a lot of what I tended to do as a Computer Science undergraduate who studied discrete mathematics and formal logic and liked to make statements unambiguously in first order logic. This was all the more because I was doing a bunch of courses that involved mathematical proofs which obviously lended themselves to that format.

The reason why this kind of writing is sub-optimal is the following:

  1. That kind of precise writing is needlessly hard to parse.

  2. Even after people parse it, to see the intuition behind it, people necessarily have to ground it in some typical/decent instantiations of values. It is therefore much better and you transfer more bits of information from mind to mind per unit time if you directly give people the specific example and allow them to generalize the idea behind the theory in their minds.

  3. Admittedly I could have written what I did above and still given you the generalized thing stating the different knobs that could be tweaked in the example. I however thought that at least the knobs above were perfectly obvious to any person intelligent enough to understand my example. I saw no point to treat my reader with kid gloves here.

    Again, I wasn't proposing a final solution that should be implemented tomorrow! And unless you are among a weird rare set of people incapable of reading anything other than bullet proof first order logic I find it hard to believe that you can ever read such a thing into this. In fact I would argue that there is no easy way to tell the optimal parameters above and possibly even in additional generalizations without any real empirical data regarding the utility functions of different people, how they respond to incentives, what is the histogram of people at different levels of wage in a world with no prevailing wage floor in different places etc. You would also need to evaluate if any fresh perverse incentives get created if this is implemented in some places and not others. All these go for any idea that is economics related and it is foolish to not put an idea up for discussion until you have collected data from all over the world and analyzed it thoroughly to get the optimal set of parameters, have guarded for perverse incentives thoroughly etc.

    I am now an internet entrepreneur and have realized that the main objective with communication in most settings (writing research papers, pitching VCs, pitching other companies for partnerships etc.) is to transfer maximum bits of information in the shortest possible time. It is not necessary to get verbose and guard yourself against any possibly misinterpretation in the world. Such language is best used only in the context of an adversarial scenario such as a debate or a legal battle where the other party has every incentive in the world to misrepresent any of your statements, throw red-herring arguments your way etc. This is exactly why legal language is so tedious and annoying - to avoid adversarial parties at any point coming up with responses such as yours. In most normal non-adversarial scenarios, this approach is extremely sub-optimal for communication.

Comment author: orthonormal 25 July 2011 11:55:51PM 8 points [-]

That's a bit harsh. I think the problem is just that Vijay hadn't heard of Friedman's negative income tax proposal, and is reinventing the wheel. Also, it's not polished enough for the Main section.

Comment author: VijayKrishnan 26 July 2011 12:32:52AM 2 points [-]

Thanks, orthonormal! Yes I had not heard of it and the idea seems very similar.

Comment author: AShepard 25 July 2011 11:07:43PM *  9 points [-]

Interesting idea. It's in the same family as the Earned Income Tax Credit and the Negative Income Tax.

The immediate potential downside I see is that this would effectively institute a very high marginal tax rate on income below 'x'. For every additional dollar that someone who makes less than x earns, they lose 0.5 dollars of social security. That's a 50% implicit marginal tax rate, on top of whatever the official marginal tax rate is. By comparison, the highest marginal tax rate for federal income taxes in the United States is 35%, which is only applied to household earnings beyond $370,000 (source). The implication of standard economic theory is that many people would simply choose not to work and earn .75x.

Comment author: VijayKrishnan 26 July 2011 12:29:20AM 1 point [-]

Agreed. But does this problem not exist in even bigger measure when you have min wage and social security for those unemployed as a result of minimum wage. The social security cannot be equal to the min wage, since otherwise no one would work at min wage. However the social security would presumably be something like 2/3 of min wage to ensure that those who are unemployed are able to have some decent standard of living. And this per your argument would put the implicit tax rate of those earning minimum wage at 67%!

Comment author: [deleted] 25 July 2011 11:01:53PM 2 points [-]

One possible problem with this is it's effectively a government subsidy for low-paying employers. Anyone currently on minimum wage, their wage will drop and be made up by the government. Not necessarily the intended effect.

To me this seems just like a slightly more complex way of doing the citizens' income idea, which is one I like in theory and would be easier to implement (as well as probably more popular).

Comment author: VijayKrishnan 25 July 2011 11:34:56PM 0 points [-]

It's not obvious that it's a subsidy. This would be a subsidy only if an employer would have to pay a person less here compared to a market with no minimum wage laws and no social security. For example, imagine that in such a market a person's wage is $4 per hour (who is currently almost certainly unemployed in California due to the $8/hr min wage). Now let's analyze what happens to the prevailing wage of a person of similar skill with the above scheme where the government ensures that a person makes at least $6 an hour. The marginal utility of money is lower for the aforesaid person given that he is already guaranteed $6 an hour. This will cause some of the people to not work (whereas in the min wage + fixed social security for the employed scheme, all the people fitting the above profile wouldn't be working). Since there are smaller number of people of the same skill level competing for the jobs, employers will actually have to pay more money to make it worth the while of the employees! So if anything it is the very opposite of a subsidy for the employers who will now be employing all the people who cannot command minimum wage, and are unemployed now.

Comment author: Hyena 25 July 2011 11:01:12PM *  2 points [-]

I think you should replace "earnings" with "hourly wages". It makes more sense, given perfect information, to have a system which tops up hourly earnings rather than earnings generally because this incentivizes work rather than earnings.

We don't, for example, want to issue subsidies to people who work part time at high-payed work just because they'll be topped up by the scheme.

Comment author: VijayKrishnan 25 July 2011 11:18:30PM *  0 points [-]

This seems to be a good idea. But the only problem with it is that the labor market is not as liquid as a financial market. It is in principle quite possible for a person in a free market to be commanding 1.5 * minimum_wage in a part time job or for part of the year, but unable to find work for the rest of the year or rest of the free time, which would push his annual salary below minimum wage. Theoretically there should be absolutely zero unemployment with no minimum wage laws. However in practice it would still be a couple of percent due to liquidity holes in the market, with people in between jobs, in the process of talking with multiple employers etc. In my method, there is still incentive for people earning above min wage to work as hard as possible, since the state subsidy is only (x-y)/2 and not (x-y). I agree with your point though, that the incentives would be stronger in the event of replacing earnings with "hourly wages", if only you could handle the issue of genuine unemployment due to liquidity holes that prevent the person from making min wage averaged across the year.

In response to Fight Zero-Sum Bias
Comment author: VijayKrishnan 19 July 2010 12:14:44AM 3 points [-]

The ridiculous amount of activity by the untrained and uninformed on the stock markets seems to suggest that people could use a significantly higher amount of "zero sum" bias there. There are tons of people who would not peg their investment skill in the top 1%, who nonetheless think they have a good chance of making money in short term trades. There certainly seems to be the thinking that the stock market is a source of profits for one and all, regardless of investment skill and understanding.

This bias however is most prevalent in the idea that getting rich cannot possibly be a noble act, a point extensively addressed in Paul Graham's essays.

Comment author: shiftedShapes 27 May 2010 01:47:32AM *  2 points [-]

You only need a contract like this if there is only one party with whom you can make your deal. So the marriage example is a good one (unless you are alpha and indifferent enough to pull off: "if you won't sign the prenup my other Fiancée will"). However the used car example is silly. You don't need a contract stating that you will be penalized for paying more than $4000. You can just get a competing dealer to make an offer in which case this competing offer becomes your upper bound.

I realize it may seem like I'm fighting the hypothetical here, but the OP seems confused as to why these sorts of commitment devices are not widely used. The answer is that it is a big world with plenty of alternatives and competition serves the same function without risking loss.

Comment author: VijayKrishnan 31 May 2010 07:10:31PM 0 points [-]

You are right about competition serving quite a useful purpose in the real world. However the real world is not like financial markets where you have liquidity by the milli second with regard to competing offers. If competition did a great job of providing an alternative in real time, they would be no need to do the following in pretty much any negotiation 1. Pretend that you have lots of time and are in no hurry to close this deal with the other party or anyone else. 2. Pretend that you looked up and found/know of much better deals elsewhere that what the other party is offering. Alternatively claim that the competing deals you are getting are much better than they truly are. 3. Pretend that your "last price" is very different from your true last price.

If competition were doing an amazing job, there would be no reason to do 1-3 above.

You say above "you can just get a competing dealer to make an offer which becomes the upper bound". If you are a person who is putting time to productive use, it would not be unreasonable to value your hour at well over $50. The question is therefore whether you can find competing offers without spending 10-20 hours which would pretty much erode your whole margin of savings.

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