The models of 2028-2031 get much bigger than the models of 2026, going from 10T total params in 2026 to maybe 240T params in 2028 [1] and then 1.4 quadrillion params in 2031, as I estimate in the previous post from HBM bandwidth/capacity, scale-up system size, pretraining compute, and scaling...
Token generation speed is constrained by the speed at which the relevant HBM can be read, which is mostly the weights and KV-cache. Suppose a model is large, so that more than half of HBM is read when making a single pass over the weights, it's being read in parallel...
Superintelligence doesn't make human decisions unnecessary, any more than the laws of physics make them unnecessary, these are two instances of exactly the same free will vs. determinism puzzle. When something knows or carries out your actions, as the physical world does (even if that is the only way in...
There are many ways in which costs of compute get reported. A 1 GW datacenter site costs $10-15bn in the infrastructure (buildings, cooling, power), plus $30-35bn in compute hardware (servers, networking, labor), assuming Nvidia GPUs. Useful life of the infrastructure is about 10-15 years, and with debt financing a developer...
Permanent disempowerment without restrictions on quality of life achievable with relatively meager resources (and no extinction) seems to be a likely outcome for the future of humanity, if the current trajectory of frontier AI development continues and leads to AGI [1] shortly. This might happen as a result of at...
Nick Bostrom defines existential risk as > Existential risk – One where an adverse outcome would either annihilate Earth-originating intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtail its potential. The problem with talking about "doom" is that many worlds that fall to existential risk but don't involve literal extinction are treated...
Currently, only 5 companies in the world have access to frontier AI training compute and are also pursuing development of AGI (Google DeepMind, OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and Meta). This will still hold in 2026 for Google and OpenAI, and plausibly also for Anthropic, Meta, and xAI. Stance towards trying to...