I'm sorry, why isn't the prior probability that you say "why yes, I am holding the ace of spades" = 1/4?
Edit: unless you meant "draw a pair", in which case yes, the ace of spades would show up in three out of six possible pairings.
So what you are saying is, we should all be Aspies?
Sounds good to me.
I'm sorry, why isn't the prior probability that you say "why yes, I am holding the ace of spades" = 1/4?
Edit: unless you meant "draw a pair", in which case yes, the ace of spades would show up in three out of six possible pairings.