I'm sorry, why isn't the prior probability that you say "why yes, I am holding the ace of spades" = 1/4?
Edit: unless you meant "draw a pair", in which case yes, the ace of spades would show up in three out of six possible pairings.
So what you are saying is, we should all be Aspies?
Sounds good to me.
Pick a username and password for your Less Wrong and Less Wrong Wiki accounts. You will receive an email to verify your account.
Create account
Already have an account and just want to login?
Login
Forgot your password?
= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
I'm sorry, why isn't the prior probability that you say "why yes, I am holding the ace of spades" = 1/4?
Edit: unless you meant "draw a pair", in which case yes, the ace of spades would show up in three out of six possible pairings.