Comment author: Yossarian 09 February 2014 10:59:52PM 2 points [-]

Does anyone know if there is/are narrative fiction based around the AI Box Experiment? Short stories or anything else?

Comment author: Vaniver 29 April 2013 08:54:09PM 10 points [-]

My favorite intellectually is "choose well," but I haven't successfully used it much because in the moment it sounds too ominous.

Comment author: Yossarian 30 April 2013 04:50:05AM 0 points [-]

Choose well is a nice salutation for instrumental rationality. But what about, "Know much and choose well" to cover epistemic and instrumental rationality?

Comment author: Yossarian 27 April 2013 11:32:02PM *  0 points [-]

"When did you stop beating your wife?"

This is basically framing effect, no?

Comment author: tgb 08 April 2013 11:59:27AM 4 points [-]

In context, this is said right before the battle of Agincourt and Henry V is reminding his troops that the only thing left for them to do is to prepare their minds for the coming battle (where they are horribly outnumbered). I guess the rationality part is to remember that sometimes we must make sure to be in the right mindset to succeed.

I've always seen that whole speech as a pretty good example of reasoning from the wrong premises: Henry V makes the argument that God will decide the outcome of the battle and so if given the opportunity to have more Englishmen fighting along side them, he would choose to fight without them since then he gets more glory for winning a harder fight and if they lose then fewer will have died. Of course he doesn't take this to the logical conclusion and go out and fight alone, but I guess Shakespeare couldn't have pushed history quite that far.

A good 'dark arts' quote from that speech might be when he offers to pay anyone's fare back to England if they leave then. After that, anyone thinking of deserting will be trapped by their sunk costs into staying - but maybe that's not what Shakespeare had in mind...

Comment author: Yossarian 08 April 2013 07:19:07PM *  11 points [-]

The quote struck me as a poetic way of affirming the general importance of metacognition - a reminder that we are at the center of everything we do, and therefore investing in self improvement is an investment with a multiplier effect. I admit though this may be adding my own meaning that doesn't exist in the quote's context.

I've always seen that whole speech as a pretty good example of reasoning from the wrong premises: Henry V makes the argument that God will decide the outcome of the battle and so if given the opportunity to have more Englishmen fighting along side them, he would choose to fight without them since then he gets more glory for winning a harder fight and if they lose then fewer will have died. Of course he doesn't take this to the logical conclusion and go out and fight alone, but I guess Shakespeare couldn't have pushed history quite that far.

Rewatching Branagh's version recently, I keyed in on a different aspect. In his speech, Henry describes in detail all the glory and status the survivors of the battle will enjoy for the rest of their lives, while (of course) totally downplaying the fact that few of them can expect to collect on that reward. He's making a cost/benefit calculation for them and leaning heavily on the scale in the process.

Contrast with similar inspiring military speeches:

William Wallace says, "Fight and you may die. Run and you may live...for awhile. And dying in your beds, many years from now, would you be willin' to trade ALL the days, from this day to that, for one chance, just one chance, to come back here and tell our enemies that they may take our lives, but they'll never take our freedom!" He's saying essentially the same thing as Henry, but framing it as a loss instead of a gain. Where Henry tells his soldiers what they'll gain from fighting, Wallace tells them what they'll lose if they don't. Perhaps it's telling that, unlike Henry, he doesn't get very specific. It might've been an opportunity for someone in the ranks to run a thought experiment, "What specific aspects of my life will be measurably different if we have 'freedom' versus if we don't have 'freedom'? What exactly AM I trading ALL the days for? And if I magically had that thing without the cost of potentially dying, what would my preferences be then?" Or to just notice their confusion and be able to recognize they were being loss averse and without the ability to define exactly what they were averse to losing.

Meanwhile, Maximus tells his troops, "What you do in life echoes in eternity." He's more honest and direct about the probability that you're going to die, but also reminds you that the cost/benefit analysis extends beyond your own life, the implication being that your 'honor' (reputation) affects your placement in the afterlife and (probably of more consequence) the well being of your family after your death. Life is an iterated game and sometimes you have to defect (or cooperate?) so that your children get to play at all.

And lastly, Patton says, "No bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor, dumb bastard die for his." He explicitly rejects the entire 'die for your country' framing and foists it wholly onto the enemy. It's his version of "The enemy's gate is down." He's not telling you you're not going to die, but at least he's not trying to convince you that your death is somehow a good or necessary thing.

When taken in this company, Henry actually comes across more like a villain. Of all of them, he's appealing to their desire to achieve rational interests in an irrational way without being at all upfront about their odds of actually getting what he's promising them.

Comment author: jsteinhardt 27 March 2013 03:49:47PM 10 points [-]

"How do I get stronger?" has been solved and the solution is Starting Strength.

Evidence: The set of my friends who are strong is exactly the set of my friends who do / have done Starting Strength or a close variant. Also, I used to lift with several competitive power lifters (including someone ranked top 100 nationally in the deadlift) and they unanimously advocated it.

These are relatively large N and effect size btw, i.e. I know at least 15 people who've done SS and they're out-benching the non-SS'ers by 20 pounds on the low end, and 100 pounds on the high end (I pick bench because it is the exercise most people are familiar with; the gap for other things like squat is more like 50 pounds on low end, 200 pounds on high end).

Comment author: Yossarian 07 April 2013 08:26:23PM 2 points [-]

Additionally, fitness roughly breaks into two broad categories - resistance and cardiovascular. Starting Strength covers resistance training, but the cardiovascular version of Starting Strength is Couch To 5K. It uses the same basic concept of progressive overload applied to running.

Comment author: Yossarian 06 April 2013 05:10:43PM 4 points [-]

All things be ready if our minds be so.

  • William Shakespeare, Henry V
In response to Rationalist Lent
Comment author: Yossarian 14 February 2013 07:49:00PM 7 points [-]

I have a candidate and it might be an odd one. I think I'll give up watching the Daily Show for 40 days. I've been watching it for almost its entire existence (before Jon Stewart was the host) and take a certain hipster pride in the fact that I watched the show before it became the widely known, popular thing it is now. But for awhile now, I haven't derived that much enjoyment from actually watching it. Some interviews, an occasional chuckle here and there, but mostly I find myself annoyed at how lazy the writing has become and Stewart's increasing tendency to stretch out bits well past their actual punchline.

But it's been such an ingrained habit for so long and it feels like compromising part of my identity, albeit a small, insignificant part of it. So, for the next 40 days, I won't watch the Daily Show.

Not the Colbert Report though, that show is genius.

In response to comment by Yossarian on Rationalist Lent
Comment author: Yossarian 05 April 2013 08:22:20PM 3 points [-]

Having now concluded Rationalist Lent, I have determined that it is worth my time and I do genuinely prefer to keep watching the Daily Show.

At Lent's conclusion, I started rewatching and ended up watching all the episodes that I missed (the ones still available anyway) with a renewed appreciation. Coincidentally, I also just finished a comprehensive cleanup of all my harddrives, stretching back over ten years, and at the bottom of one of the oldest (pulled from my closet), I found an episode from 1999. I have no earthly idea why I downloaded/saved it in the first place, but I watched it and lo and behold, it wasn't that funny. The real culprit here, I think, was Nostalgia Bias.

One additional note: During RL, news broke that Stewart would be taking a hiatus from hosting and be replaced by John Oliver, starting this summer. That sort of wrecked my experiment, since I knew right away my preferences would be to continue watching in that case. Though you could still make the argument that 22 minutes, four days a week, over 3 months would be a significant savings. And even disregarding entirely, it was still a nice exercise in willpower; a demonstration to myself that I am in control of the choices I make and that I can counteract the habits and urges of my System 1.

In response to comment by WrongBot on Just One Sentence
Comment author: [deleted] 05 January 2013 02:37:36AM *  15 points [-]

"physical laws" and "universe" maybe suppose too much background.

I cross-pollinate your thing with EY's:

"If you test theories by how precisely they predict experimental results, you will learn how to make powerful weapons."

EDIT: My latest version is "If you test theories by how precisely they predict experimental results, you will unlock the secrets of the ancients." Which fixes a few bugs.

In response to comment by [deleted] on Just One Sentence
Comment author: Yossarian 03 April 2013 05:58:55PM 3 points [-]

"If you test theories by how precisely they predict experimental results, you will have many more opportunities to have sex and look cool."

Comment author: jkaufman 28 August 2011 10:21:38PM *  5 points [-]

Talking to friends who had to wear uniforms, people found other ways to signal status: jewelry, fancier shoes, hairstyles etc. Is there a reason to think that kids spend less money/effort on status signaling if they're required to wear uniforms?

Comment author: Yossarian 29 March 2013 04:24:17AM 4 points [-]

This was the case for me in my uniforms required school. The obvious and conspicuous item we could control was our tie, but thinking back on it now, kids signalled identity and status through shoes, belts, and other accessories (though I was effectively blind to such things at the time).

Seniors were also allowed to wear khaki pants, a conscious allowance on the administrators' part designed to reinforce the different classes.

Comment author: Yossarian 27 March 2013 11:32:51PM *  2 points [-]

Today's SMBC

Has this idea been considered before? The idea that a self-improving capable AI would choose not to because it wouldn't be rational? And whether or not that calls into question the rationality of pursuing AI in the first place?

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