In response to comment by sbharris on Normal Cryonics
Comment author: Blueberry 21 January 2010 11:36:05PM 6 points [-]

there’s still the problem that you have to think about your own physical mortality in a very concrete way. A way which requires choices, for hours and perhaps even days.

I'm baffled that this is the stumbling block for so many people. I can understand being worried about the cost/uncertainty trade-off, but I really don't understand why it's any less troublesome than buying life insurance, planning a funeral, picking a cemetery plot, writing a will, or planning for cremation. People make choices that involve contemplating their death all the time, and people make choices about unpleasant-sounding medical treatments all the time.

Is it not less gruesome than the alternatives of skeletonizing in a flame, or by slow decay? No. But the average person manages to mostly avoid thinking of the alternatives, and the funeral industry helps them do it.

Well, maybe more people would sign up if Alcor's process didn't involve as much thinking about the alternatives? I had thought that the process was just signing papers and arranging life insurance. But if Alcor's process is turning people away, maybe that needs to change.

Maybe I'm just deluding myself: I'm not in a financial position to sign up yet, and I plan on signing up when I am. But I can't see the "creep factor" being an issue for me at all. I have no idea what that would feel like.

In response to comment by Blueberry on Normal Cryonics
Comment author: Zian 11 August 2013 08:23:39PM *  0 points [-]

so much thinking about alternatives

Speaking as someone who tried getting a concrete price estimate, the process can stand to be much improved. I had/will have to (if I follow through):

  1. Get convinced that cryo is worth digging into (maybe call this step "0").
  2. Figure out where to get price info (this took another chunk of time until I ran across some useful Less Wrong posts) for life insurance related stuff.
  3. Contact a life insurance person (as a cold call)
  4. Hand over some personal info.
  5. Get a pile of PDFs in return along with finding out that I still have to...

  6. Decide between different cryo organizations. 6 a) Find out info about the organizations' recurring fees. 6 b) Do research into each organization

  7. Decide which cryo approach to take.
  8. Read over all the stuff from step 5.
  9. Talk to the organization from step 6 about the physical logistics such as the wrist band thingy.
  10. Make a final Y/N decision
  11. Hunt down notary(ies) and witness(es) (?) 11 a) Make appointments with everyone
  12. Fill out the papers from the life insurance people
  13. Fill out the papers from the cryo organization.
  14. Sign stuff.
  15. Sign more stuff.
  16. Mail everything

At any time between steps 1 and 16, the process can fall completely apart.

Comment author: Dorikka 27 July 2013 02:37:20AM 1 point [-]

(Just FYI, I don't think Zian gets a notification unless you reply to his comment.)

Comment author: Zian 04 August 2013 10:09:26PM 0 points [-]

You're correct and thanks for posting that.

Comment author: mare-of-night 27 July 2013 02:19:14AM 0 points [-]

I would also appreciate it if you shared the web app. (I've got food problems all over the place, and I probably haven't figured out all of them yet.)

Comment author: Zian 04 August 2013 10:06:53PM *  0 points [-]

As I mention in another comment, the data crunching is completely separate and likely to generate lots of specific datapoints that are only relevant to me. This is where things get really hard to generalize/make easy to use widely.

If this doesn't scare you away, then send me a message.

Likely pre-requisites are:

  • Programming experience
  • Experience with Java
  • Willingness to set up a local database server (I use MySQL)
  • Familiarity with the various ways to use Bayes's theorem (I recommend Bayesian Artificial Intelligence and of course, EY's article) and how things can go wrong
Comment author: mare-of-night 27 July 2013 02:19:14AM 0 points [-]

I would also appreciate it if you shared the web app. (I've got food problems all over the place, and I probably haven't figured out all of them yet.)

Comment author: Zian 04 August 2013 09:59:56PM *  0 points [-]

It's actually online already but I am not publicizing it right now for a few reasons:

  • It assumes only 1 user right now so there's no encryption or data separation
  • No reporting features (this is also a security feature; can't have an XSS with no displayed values!) except for downloading the database and connecting with Excel/ODBC/Your favorite data crunching tool
  • Assumes the Pacific Time Zone
  • HIPAA/the mess around dealing with personally identifiable information

Ideas for mitigating the issues are welcome as deploying the site is very easy:

  1. Generate a random string of letters and numbers.
  2. Make a folder on your LAMP server named after #1.
  3. Copy and paste the application to the folder.
  4. Change 1 value inside a config file to point at #1.
  5. Run a script to create the databases.
  6. Fill in your database login information inside a config file.

(This assumes that you're wise enough to avoid leaving any public pointers to the site.)

Comment author: Daniel_Burfoot 19 July 2013 09:46:02PM 4 points [-]

Do you really need to build a whole web application for this? It seems like overkill. Why not just use a spreadsheet?

Comment author: Zian 04 August 2013 09:57:02PM 0 points [-]

Actually, the web application already exists to a great degree.

The big tasks left are:

  • Set up something to generate metadata like the jump from storing a value that says "ate at restaurant" and having a bit go to True that corresponds to "ate in Los Angeles County".
  • Do the actual Bayes classification or data analysis

Why not use a big XLSX?

It's really hard to enter data into an XLSX on a smartphone. Also, I guess you can say that a MySQL database table has a lot of similarities with a spreadsheet so, in that way, I am.

Comment author: Zian 04 August 2013 09:50:53PM *  2 points [-]

After "dying" twice on Habit RPG and reading the first few chapters of Don't Shoot the Dog (via a Reddit post from EY, the evidence seems to indicate that I'm trying to make too big of a change too quickly (or, too many small changes).

I'm going to look for a way to pause or temporarily hide items on Habit RPG. I'm also open to similar sites that are more stable. Habit RPG tries really hard with good fundamentals but it doesn't work reliably in Internet Explorer or Firefox. I'm aware that they're rewriting the site but I'm trying to change things now and I suspect that using "Habit RPG is down, why bother today?" as an excuse isn't a good idea.

Comment author: Zian 04 August 2013 09:38:30PM 1 point [-]

Looks like a great idea. It's certainly an easy way to build a version of Sequences with explanatory comments. Optimally, such comments would appear in the actual article but this is a good step towards that.

Comment author: Zian 28 July 2013 08:03:52AM *  10 points [-]

Hi there!

I found HPMoR via TVTropes and then found LessWrong via HPMoR. I decided to hang around after reading the explanation of Bayes Theorem on Eliezer's personal site and finding it quite nice. Also, it matched up with how I thought of Bayes's theorem. You could say that I got attracted to LW by confirmation bias. :)

On a more useful note, I got interested in rationality/etc. through a somewhat convoluted path. I got introduced to Bayes Theorem via Paul Graham when I built a website filter for a science fair project.

My reading material also contributed heavily. I've also always been a fast and constant reader so discovering the (FREE!) interlibrary loan offered by the University of California was a boon. Major nonfiction books that affected me were cognitive science stuff (especially Dan Ariely) and books on how things/processes/systems work I distinctly recall re-re-re-checking out a book on landfills and waste management in elementary school because it was long enough to be somewhat thorough and had enough photos to be interesting. Major fiction influences include books by Thornton Burgess, the Redwall series, and David Brin. I got introduced to the concept of fanfiction by the Redwall Online Community and spent many years in related activities so it wasn't too much of a leap for me to take HPMoR seriously. Getting keyword matches between Ariely and HPMoR kept me hooked, never mind the bit about arbitraging gold and silver, which I can't believe Harry hasn't tried doing by now.

Another thing that helped me take the ideas in Less Wrong seriously was my constant desire to re-examine by beliefs. For example, I've always been interested in the ideas in Christian apologetics.

As for where I started at LW, I can't really say. I know I read stuff that confirmed what I already knew like things about the Planning Fallacy. The first bit of new material was probably Mysterious Answers (and those in its sequence).

Comment author: sebmathguy 24 July 2013 07:35:22AM 6 points [-]

I would immediately download this iff it had a GUI.

Comment author: Zian 27 July 2013 07:10:25AM 0 points [-]

That's precisely the reason why I gave up and am building my own Bayesian classifier to do ... almost exactly what this post's project will do. Only, mine is meant for strictly personal use and is related to hashing out a diagnosis with the help of a doctor.

Comment author: Zian 16 July 2013 03:38:19AM 4 points [-]

I'm currently working on a website application to figure out what I can't eat. It will use Bayes Theorem. This could make a huge difference in my life.

I also found that I'm really good at asking lots of questions when I'm stuck but not good at realizing that I need to stop working on something until more resources arrive.

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