Zubon

Book recommendation requests

Frequently to both.

For fiction that I re-read and find it not as good the second time, I suspect the newness of it was the driving force in my initial assessment. Permutation City was life-changing for me, but going back after having more transhumanism in my diet, I don't know that it is even my favorite Greg Egan book.

There are other times where I have that feeling without even needing to re-read. "Upon reflection, I enjoyed that a lot at the time, but there is not a lot of there there."

Replying toOpen thread, May 15 - May 21, 2017

Open thread, May 15 - May 21, 2017

You should be very surprised if you think you have found a new counterexample to a centuries-old discipline that comes from a millennia-old example. Odds are there is an existing literature addressing exactly that question.

Replying towhy people romantice magic over most science.

why people romantice magic over most science.

I concur on "do what I want" as the distinction. Magic is teleological: it produces a certain effect, whereas science is about the cause. Magic "just works." You do not need to know how the magic words produce light or fire, they just do. The great usual magical dream is about having massive power under your control, not whether you are the direct cause. Wishes are the archetypal example. You wish for something and it happens. Done. A genie is neither you nor a tool you control, just a massive source of power bound to your wishes.

Magical horror stories are about wishing for effects and either not liking the cause or not... (read more)

Replying toDid social desirability effects mask Trump's true support?

Did social desirability effects mask Trump's true support?

And the direction of the error was known and stated in advance by informed interpreters (538). A fair number of Trump voters would not have been considered "likely" voters based on past non-voting, and that was a systematic bias in the polling estimate rather than something that would affect a few states independently. Pollsters tended to stick with their "likely" filter rather than change it on the assumption that these voters would turn out and vote. They turned out and voted.

I seem to recall seeing Trump doing better in polls of registered voters versus likely voters, but I cannot say I have strong evidence for that and it might have just been comparing a few surveys. Most polls seem to have been of likely voters.

Zubon10y

Between Halls B and E, nearish giant Pikachu

Zubon10y

Setting up at the blue Fantasy Flight tables, by the X-Wing Miniatures banner, in front of the HQ table, just before the banner showing the switch to Asmodee.

Zubon10y

If you have spotted a good/better location at the con, suggestions are still open. Otherwise, I will be updating on-site when I arrive on Saturday.

Zubon10y

Default location is in the card game area, specific location to be found at the time (and then posted here). There are always open tables. I would plan on near-ish the exhibit hall exit, but I have not seen how the layout may have changed this year.

There is also the official open gaming space, but that is $4/person.

We could also take discussion to a restaurant, or start at the Convention Center and wander off for food if we run that long.

Rationality Quotes Thread February 2016

10y

Discussion article for the meetup : Gen Con: Applied Game Theory

WHEN: 06 August 2016 02:00:00PM (-0400)

WHERE: 100 S Capitol Ave, Indianapolis, IN 46225, USA

Time tentative, location to be worked out. If you are attending Gen Con and want to meet up with rationalists, please comment if you have a preferred time and location. Posting this now to get it on the calendar and solicit responses. Default location is in the card game area, specific location to be found at the time (and then posted here). UPDATE: setting up

Zubon10y

There is some small number of people whom I trust when they say they very confident. They can explain the reasons why they came to a belief and the counterarguments. Most other highly confident statements I look upon with suspicion, and I might even take the confidence as evidence against the claim. Many very confident people seem unaware of counterarguments, are entirely dismissive of them, or wear as a badge of pride that they have explicitly refused to consider them.

There are others whose intuition I will trust with high confidence on certain topics, significantly because they are aware that they are exercising intuition. They may not know how they know something, but at least they know they don't know how they know it, which tends to get them to the right confidence level.

Meetup : Ann Arbor meetup

11y

Discussion article for the meetup : Ann Arbor meetup

WHEN: 22 August 2015 02:00:00PM (-0400)

WHERE: Pizza House, 618 Church Street, Ann Arbor, Mich. 48104

Our bi-monthly discussion group. There is no minimum to attend in terms of age, reading history, karma, or otherwise. If you can read this, you are welcome. You do not need to have read the Sequences or HPMoR. You do not need a degree. You do not need to be extroverted, neurotypical, or even think of yourself a Less Wrong person.

Accommodations:

We will likely be seated upstairs.

... (read 205 more words →)

Michigan Meetup Feedback and Planning

11y

Discussion article for the meetup : Gen Con: Applied Game Theory

WHEN: 01 August 2015 02:00:00PM (-0400)

WHERE: Indianapolis Convention Center

Tentative location: Hall F, the green tables just behind the CCG/TCG HQ. They say that space is generally available for open gaming, and failing that, the blue tables just across from HQ would be. If we have managed to pick peak CCG time, we will wait until 2:15 to gather folks and relocate (and will comment here to that effect). That spot is also just outside the exhibit hall, in

... (read more)

Meetup : Ann Arbor, MI Discussion Meetup 6/13

11y

Our meetup last weekend was at the downtown Ann Arbor Public Library. There were several comments, requests, and discussion items. This discussion topic goes out to attendees, people who might have wanted to attend but didn't, and members of other meetup groups who have suggestions.

1. Several people mentioned having trouble commenting here on the Less Wrong forums. Some functions are restricted by karma, and if you cannot comment, you cannot accummulate karma.

Have you verified your e-mail address? This is a common stumbling point.
Please try to comment on this post. Restrictions on comments are (moderate certainty) looser than comments on starting posts.
If that does not work, please try to comment on a comment

... (read 542 more words →)

Choosing an Inferior Alternative

11y

Discussion article for the meetup : Ann Arbor, MI Discussion Meetup 6/13

WHEN: 13 June 2015 01:30:00PM (-0400)

WHERE: 343 South Fifth Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48104

We will be resuming bi-monthly meetups, moving to Ann Arbor. We have a meeting room reserved at the Ann Arbor District Library. Please bring your discussion topics, or post them here if you prefer to have the facilitator introduce them for you.

I am considering scheduling Lansing meetups in the off-month, if there is interest a little further north. That might wait until MSU is back in session, depending on our local population.

Discussion article for the meetup : Ann Arbor, MI Discussion Meetup 6/13

11y

"Choosing an Inferior Alternative" (ungated version) is a 2006 paper¹ by J. Edward Russo, Kurt A. Carlson and Margaret G. Meloy. It is presented as an example of cognitive biases leading to poor decision-making. In this case, participants were asked to rate options based on several characteristics, then the presentation of those options' characteristics was rearranged so that the inferior alternative's good points came first. With the new presentation, a majority of the same participants selected the alternative they had previously rated as inferior. You can read full details in the links above, and feel free to discuss methodological problems.²

This is an interesting result, and perhaps not too surprising here at Less Wrong. People... (read 610 more words →)

Defeating the Villain