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Comment author: Dagon 08 March 2017 07:27:54PM *  4 points [-]

Any references or studies behind this? My intuition (for which I know of no studies, so is just another option from yours) is different: most people are unwilling and/or unable to do the work of science/engineering - they are drawn to "do what I want" solutions rather than "do what I very precisely describe" solutions.

It's not about internal capabilities vs external tools. It's about what level of understanding and attention-to-detail is required to use it.

Comment author: Zubon 11 March 2017 06:16:22PM 1 point [-]

I concur on "do what I want" as the distinction. Magic is teleological: it produces a certain effect, whereas science is about the cause. Magic "just works." You do not need to know how the magic words produce light or fire, they just do. The great usual magical dream is about having massive power under your control, not whether you are the direct cause. Wishes are the archetypal example. You wish for something and it happens. Done. A genie is neither you nor a tool you control, just a massive source of power bound to your wishes.

Magical horror stories are about wishing for effects and either not liking the cause or not specifying the effect properly, like the evil genie or the monkey's paw. Science horror stories are about starting a cause without realizing its effects.

There are plenty of science-like magical stories, where they delve into the rules of magic and effects from causes. And don't those read a lot more like science fiction, whereas a space opera like Star Wars has the trappings of science fiction but Jedi are just space wizards that produce effects by willing them.

Comment author: AlexMennen 12 November 2016 04:40:33AM 1 point [-]

Technically true, but ultimately, it doesn't provide all that much new evidence about polling. The polling error was not abnormally large.

Comment author: Zubon 13 November 2016 02:28:52PM 3 points [-]

And the direction of the error was known and stated in advance by informed interpreters (538). A fair number of Trump voters would not have been considered "likely" voters based on past non-voting, and that was a systematic bias in the polling estimate rather than something that would affect a few states independently. Pollsters tended to stick with their "likely" filter rather than change it on the assumption that these voters would turn out and vote. They turned out and voted.

I seem to recall seeing Trump doing better in polls of registered voters versus likely voters, but I cannot say I have strong evidence for that and it might have just been comparing a few surveys. Most polls seem to have been of likely voters.

Comment author: Zubon 06 August 2016 05:12:52PM 0 points [-]

Setting up at the blue Fantasy Flight tables, by the X-Wing Miniatures banner, in front of the HQ table, just before the banner showing the switch to Asmodee.

Comment author: Zubon 06 August 2016 05:32:31PM 0 points [-]

Between Halls B and E, nearish giant Pikachu

Comment author: Zubon 16 July 2016 06:36:10PM 0 points [-]

Default location is in the card game area, specific location to be found at the time (and then posted here). There are always open tables. I would plan on near-ish the exhibit hall exit, but I have not seen how the layout may have changed this year.

There is also the official open gaming space, but that is $4/person.

We could also take discussion to a restaurant, or start at the Convention Center and wander off for food if we run that long.

Comment author: Zubon 06 August 2016 05:12:52PM 0 points [-]

Setting up at the blue Fantasy Flight tables, by the X-Wing Miniatures banner, in front of the HQ table, just before the banner showing the switch to Asmodee.

Comment author: Zubon 16 July 2016 06:36:10PM 0 points [-]

Default location is in the card game area, specific location to be found at the time (and then posted here). There are always open tables. I would plan on near-ish the exhibit hall exit, but I have not seen how the layout may have changed this year.

There is also the official open gaming space, but that is $4/person.

We could also take discussion to a restaurant, or start at the Convention Center and wander off for food if we run that long.

Comment author: Zubon 06 August 2016 02:04:48AM *  0 points [-]

If you have spotted a good/better location at the con, suggestions are still open. Otherwise, I will be updating on-site when I arrive on Saturday.

Comment author: Zubon 16 July 2016 06:36:10PM 0 points [-]

Default location is in the card game area, specific location to be found at the time (and then posted here). There are always open tables. I would plan on near-ish the exhibit hall exit, but I have not seen how the layout may have changed this year.

There is also the official open gaming space, but that is $4/person.

We could also take discussion to a restaurant, or start at the Convention Center and wander off for food if we run that long.

Meetup : Gen Con: Applied Game Theory

0 Zubon 13 July 2016 09:11PM

Discussion article for the meetup : Gen Con: Applied Game Theory

WHEN: 06 August 2016 02:00:00PM (-0400)

WHERE: 100 S Capitol Ave, Indianapolis, IN 46225, USA

Time tentative, location to be worked out. If you are attending Gen Con and want to meet up with rationalists, please comment if you have a preferred time and location. Posting this now to get it on the calendar and solicit responses. Default location is in the card game area, specific location to be found at the time (and then posted here). UPDATE: setting up at the blue Fantasy Flight tables, by the X-Wing Miniatures banner, in front of the HQ table, just before the banner showing the switch to Asmodee.

Meet up with Less Wrong friends and play games! Learn the newest releases, play classics, and otherwise have fun. A purely social event, running for as long as people want to stay and play, with potential continued discussion over dinner.

As at all events, there is no minimum degree, IQ, reading record, height, age, or neurotypicality to participate. Bring games if you like, learn new games if you like, and expect a range from "I am here for the championships" to "what are we Settling?"

We seemed like the kind of nerds who might go to Gen Con. You can also use the comments here to find others attending, arrange other connections at the event, discuss the con, etc.

Discussion article for the meetup : Gen Con: Applied Game Theory

Comment author: Bitnotri 21 February 2016 06:38:13PM 7 points [-]

“It is wise to take admissions of uncertainty seriously,” Daniel Kahneman noted, “but declarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his mind, not necessarily that the story is true.”

Superforcasting, p. 85

Comment author: Zubon 21 February 2016 06:53:55PM 0 points [-]

There is some small number of people whom I trust when they say they very confident. They can explain the reasons why they came to a belief and the counterarguments. Most other highly confident statements I look upon with suspicion, and I might even take the confidence as evidence against the claim. Many very confident people seem unaware of counterarguments, are entirely dismissive of them, or wear as a badge of pride that they have explicitly refused to consider them.

There are others whose intuition I will trust with high confidence on certain topics, significantly because they are aware that they are exercising intuition. They may not know how they know something, but at least they know they don't know how they know it, which tends to get them to the right confidence level.

Comment author: Sniffnoy 11 February 2016 02:29:05AM *  0 points [-]

Which central campus library? The building indicated on the map is not a library. (FWIW, I think the last few were at the Ann Arbor District Library.)

Comment author: Zubon 11 February 2016 10:47:09PM 0 points [-]

I only know of 1 at AADL. Folks found it somewhat uncomfortable and wanted to be able to have food and drink. Several were held at Pizza House, just a bit off south campus.

Comment author: James_Miller 06 February 2016 05:33:12PM 4 points [-]

At good schools nearly everyone graduates in four years, but at lower level schools lots of students don't finish at all or take more than 4 years in part because they fail (or never finish the work) in classes. Given the importance of getting a degree, and the cost of taking more than 4 years to do so, grading is also important for students "at the bottom" of the college world.

Comment author: Zubon 07 February 2016 03:46:50PM 2 points [-]

Good point, thank you. I was focusing on the top half of the distribution, when there is also a cutoff in the bottom half.

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