I think of politics here: trying to guess the electorate's password. An elected official is rewarded for giving the answer that will get him the most votes. If that happens to be a well-conceived policy decision, that is a happy coincidence.

The hard part about teaching students not to guess the password is teaching teachers not to accept password guesses, and how to distinguish verbal behavior from thought.

I'm with Stuart Armstrong: how do you hedge against a US government default? "End of the world" may be an exaggeration, but what investment is going to be in good shape if the US decides not to pay back the national debt? Everything takes a big hit. The risk is non-zero, but it practically unavoidable.

Or maybe there are investments completely insulated from that collapse. I can't claim global expertise.