It's inspiring to know that we really can create a better and more peaceful society, just by pursuing some simple ideals like killing fifty percent of males.

I think some famous feminist recommended unspecified disappearing of 90% of males to make the world a better place, but right now I can't find the quote.

However, from scientific point of view, this situation could be an inspiration for some interesting experiments. If you remove dominant males from one generation, how long does it take until the next generation creates new ones? (I would expect one or two at most.)

You may be interested in this http://lesswrong.com/lw/jx/we_change_our_minds_less_often_than_we_think .

(However, it's certainly possible to imagine someone who can signal "being a physicist" without having learned interesting things about physics (fake PhD) or vice versa (extremely skilled autodidact), which why I think they're probably two separate but related functions.)

I think the Physicist Conspiracy in which I am a member with my PhD and all does NOT require a PhD to join. Freeman Dyson for example is clearly accepted in the club despite never bothering to get a degree beyond B.A.

I hope that the cynicism I reject in my own self-examination of my membership in my own church of rational physics engineering leads me to reject cynicism when trying to understand other people's churches. There ARE reasons people believe things and they are by no means all stupid reasons.

Intrade says:

• Romney 78.8% chance of 2012 Republican nomination.
• Romney 38.5% chance of 2012 presidency. (and 38.5 / 78.8 = 48.8% for what it's worth)
• Obama 51.4% chance of 2012 presidency.

So in these you are in agreement with everybody else.

I predict you're wrong on Hobbit backlash, but I don't even see how to define "backlash". Are we talking Matrix 2 backlash or Episode 1 backlash?

Yes, it's a badly formatted and thus disappearing link to No Seriously What About Teh Menz.

Feel free to share what is that something you found to protect.

I will get my first death or rape threat this year: 80% My reaction to the death or rape threat will be elation that I've finally made it in feminist blogging: 95% Even if it isn't I will totally say it is in order to seem cooler.

You haven't gotten one yet?

I once had a totally non-political blog with less than 1000 views per month, and I still got a few.

Hi Ozy, it's really good to see you here, I enjoy the blog a lot. I remember reading one of your first social justice 101 posts, finding it peppered with LW links, and thinking "holy crap, somebody's using LW as a resource to get important background information out of the way while talking about something-really-important-that-isn't-itself-rationality -- this is awesome and totally what LW should be for", so that made me happy =)

turns into a raving fanboy, squees, explodes

Romney will be the Republican presidential nominee: 80%. Obama will win reelection: 90%.with a non-Romney presidential nominee, 50% against Romney

Not too far off my own estimate, but... = 42% chance of a Republican president in 2013.

The Occupy Wall Street protests will fade away over the next year so much that I no longer hear much about them, even in my little liberal hippie news bubble: 75%...

...seems overconfident. Counterprediction: OWS comes roaring back in some form|GOP presidency : 85%
Assuming only, say 20% chance of OWS maintaining itself in some form under a Democrat, that still gives (0.85x0.42 + 0.2x0.58) = 0.515 of continued OWS activity. Rounding down to correct for the likelihood of overconfidence at some intermediate step, I'll say Chance of OWS fading away: 50%