I have taken the survey.

Comment: "90% of humanity" seems a little high for "minimum viable existential risk". I'd think that 75% or so would likely be enough to stop us from getting back out of the hole (though the nature of the destruction could make a major difference here).

I took part in the Good Judgment Project, a giant prediction market study from Philip Tetlock (of "Foxes and Hedgehogs" theory). I also blogged about my results, and the heuristics I used to make bets:

http://aarongertler.net/good-judgment-project/

I thought it might be of interest to a few people -- I originally learned that I could join the GJP from someone I met at CFAR.

I wrote a pair of essays (and a shorter summary of both) on heroic responsibility, and how it could serve as a strong counterpart to empathy as a one-two punch for making good moral decisions:

http://aarongertler.net/heroism/

Seemed Less-Wrong-ish, though my "heroic responsibility" is written for a different audience than Eliezer's, and is a bit less harsh/powerful as a result.

This is the best article on EA and religion that I've seen so far, and uses selective Bible quotes to make points:

https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/blog/2014-12-02/christianity-and-giving

Of course, you can use selective Bible quotes to make nearly any point, so this probably won't work if framed as a counterargument. Perhaps you can just show it to your cofounders and ask what they think, as the beginning of a discussion about what God might want or what Christians owe to non-Christians.

But I second MattG's advice that leaving is probably advisable, particularly if the above goes nowhere.

"Applause, n. The echo of a platitude."

--Ambrose Bierce, The Cynic's Word Book

Very nice post. A few recommendations of books that I found useful to read in this way:

• Never Eat Alone (Keith Ferrazzi)
• Pitch Anything (Oren Klaff)
• The Charisma Myth (Olivia Fox Cabane)
• The Flinch (Julien Smith)
• The Trusted Advisor (David H Maister)

ETA formatting

Doug McGuff, MD, fitness guru and author of the exercise book with the highest citation-to-page ratio of any I've seen.

I had a curious skim through this guy's blog. Soon happened upon this interview with Joe Mercola. I get that people sometimes do questionable things they wouldn't otherwise do for publicity, but this is pretty out there. For those unfamiliar with the good Dr Mercola, he's second only to Mehmet Oz in damage done to public understanding of the scientific basis of medicine. That's no flaw in McGuff's own work, but I'm a little dubious of a physician who's willing to associate with antivaxxers in a public professional context, from an ethical standpoint if nothing else. He may have good reasons for this, but it does trigger my quack-heuristic.

I gave $50, and plan to give substantially more within a year of graduation. That was one hell of a "big picture" section, Anna.

Teacher: So if you could live to be any age you like, what would it be?

Boy 2: Infinity.

Teacher: Infinity, you would live for ever? Why would you like to live for ever?

Boy 2: Because you just know a lot of people and make lots of new friends because you could travel to lots of countries and everything and meet loads of new animals and everything.

--Until (documentary)

http://mosaicscience.com/extra/until-transcript

A question that has been asked before, and so may be stupid: What concrete examples are there of gains from CfAR training (or self-study based on LessWrong)? These would have to come in the form of very specific examples, preferably quantitative.

E.g. "I was $100,000 in debt and unemployed for 2 years, and now I have employment earning twice what I ever have before and am out of debt."

"I never had a relationship that lasted more than 2 months, but now am happily married."

"My grade point average went up from 2.2 to 3.8"

"After struggling to diet and exercise for years, I finally got on track and am now in the best shape of my life."

etc.