Each case is solved by what society seems to have mutually concluded:

• Breaking up hurts, but being "strung along" is worse. I myself have advised coming clean due to the ever-more extreme pain resulting from the inevitable breakup. In the end, your ex-partner will be better off when they get over you.
• Management is an unsolved problem in society, but the co-workers of that employee will almost certainly conclude that he did not deserve to be fired. Managers themselves will often agree with this assessment, but somehow reach the conclusion that it needed to happen regardless. Perhaps his happiness is outweighed by the distributed quality of the company's income and the remaining employees? Management often does not make its reasoning entirely clear.
• Stealing someone else's partner is considered to be a very bad practice. It is also existentially risky.

You could try autoaruspicy...

The error bars on the result make this result meaningless. You should, at minimum, also consider how hot/successful she is relative to you (can she do better?) and whether she and you have shared goals (what are her dreams/expectations? are they compatible with yours, and are you both making progress?). It would be extraordinarily improbable for her to forget you overnight, but if she broke up with you she has likely wanted to do better for some time. The usual post-breakup advice is to focus on your own goals for awhile.

I'm inclined to say that this belongs in an Open Thread, especially as they're posted more often now.

bummer, man :) cute post.

Oh, I didn't know you broke up.

You explicitly broke up, and your prior for "she's over you" is only 30%?

Also, if she was breaking up, but maybe changing her mind, a 90% chance of answering your call seems too high, but I have no experience with these matters.

Evidence ratio of her missing my call: 90%:10% = 9:1

If I assumed this prior I'd have to conclude that I'm over, like, everyone.

I don't know why it would be redundant. If she has a certain probability of getting over you every day, and you called her and interacted normally Yesterday, then for it to be 30%, would require that she had a 30% chance of getting over you in a day, before you knew anything about whether she answered your call or not.

The math is correct, but I don't know if those priors are realistic. Particularly the "10%" one. I miss like 50% of calls in general, having nothing to do with who's calling me. And remember that the "probability that she's over me," should be probability that she got over you since the last time you checked.

The math is correct, but I don't know if those priors are realistic. Particularly the "10%" one. I miss like 50% of calls in general, having nothing to do with who's calling me. And remember that the "probability that she's over me," should be probability that she got over you since the last time you checked.