= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
I asked what you do and you said something that's not what you do.
In my model most people don't explicitely update at all but let their brains shift beliefs in the way the brain is accustomed to do.
I asked what you do and you said something that's not what you do.
You asked what mental operation I do. In my head, I do say "X is more likely to be true".
You mean you move your mouth and those words come out?
(I apologize if I'm not understanding your point/question.)
As for what words I actually speak, sometimes I say something along the lines of along the lines of "It's ok, your intuition still means something".
I do update
What does that mean in practice? What mental operation do you do?
I say, "X is more likely to be true".
In response to
Non-communicable Evidence
Do you go through an explicit updating procedure on a regular basis in conversations like that? I don't and I think most people don't.
When someone says that they believe X but can't explain why, I do update. As for how I update, it isn't much more than querying my intuition to see what they're track record is in similar contexts.
I predict that if the Pope declares Jesus is God, there will be more worlds in which Jesus is God than worlds in which Jesus is merely the son of God.
If a statement does not say anything about observable reality, there is no objective truth to be determined.
Fair point. I agree that "I have a gut feeling about something non-observable" is a possibility. But so is "I have a gut feeling about something that is observable".
In response to
Non-communicable Evidence
The claim is not observable in any way and offers no testable predictions or anything that even remotely sounds like advice. It's unprovable because it doesn't talk about objective reality.
Which claim? As for the claim that one's intuition is evidence, I predict that in worlds where someone with a good track record has an intuitive belief, the belief will be true more than it will be false.
In response to
Non-communicable Evidence
You shouldn't say, "Well, if you can't provide any evidence, you shouldn't believe what you do."
There are at least two justifications I can think of for this.
- A reductio: basically saying "since you do believe X, you must have some evidence, so see if you can figure out what it is". This can start a discussion on how not all evidence is definite/based on statistics etc.
- If they don't have a good track record, then you're trying to influence them to drop the belief because of lack of evidence (this rarely works, unfortunately).
I agree with your second point. If your intuition has proven to be false more than true (in a given context), then the intuition your brain produces would be evidence that the intuition is wrong (sorry if that was poorly worded).
As for the first point, I agree that it'd be nice to make an attempt to figure out what it is, but if the attempt fails, I don't think the observation that "Person X reports an intuitive belief that Y is true" should be ignored as evidence.
In response to
What is your rationalist backstory?
I read HPMOR. That got me interested in Lesswrong. The most I can say for pre-rationalist!me was that I was curious and a bit creative.
... but clearly open-minded enough to change your mind about a lot of stuff. What I mean is that I've told a lot of people about LessWrong, but I don't think it really "changed" any of them, and almost no one continued to read more than one or two articles. So what do you think makes you different?
In response to
What is your rationalist backstory?
...of course, for fullness's sake let me state that I also have an anti-rationalist backstory, a defeatist backstory, a horrible, shameful struggling-to-be-patient-with-my-kid backstory, and a rather intense backstory of saying goodbye to my pre-marital values (like saving the world). I'm just so full of them! And any one can explain my current behaviour with at least some plausibility!
I'd love to hear the deets! That's awesome that you're capable and willing to admit all of this.
= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d){kind=logo}
'Say' is usually a word that refers to verbal experssion.
Are you saying that you do have "X is more likely to be true" as a voice in your head?
Yes.