Comment author: ShardPhoenix 28 March 2012 11:11:10AM 1 point [-]

Harry: Use magic to cheat on gambling, or do the arbitrage-y thing.

Lucius: Suddenly you don't understand anything.

Comment author: ajuc 28 March 2012 06:08:11PM *  1 point [-]

I think there are some laws regarding using magic for gambling. Wizards can't be THAT stupid.

If not - get into leweraged currency trading, use time turner and don't worry about money anymore.

Comment author: ajuc 23 March 2012 10:19:07PM 1 point [-]

I'd say Harry would trade with Lucius - Harry would testify under Veritaserum that Dumbledore confesed to Him, that he burned Narcissa. In exchange Lucius would let Hermione free.

Harry don't know if Dumbledore burned Narcissa, but probably can beat Veritaserum (according to Quirell), and with his evil side enabled he can risk trying it.

Similiar to "make Dumbledore turn himself in", but Dumbledore had chance to do that, and declined, and I don't know if Harry can blackmail Dumbledore serioulsy enough for this. But Harry don't need to blackmail Dumbledore.

Comment author: ajuc 23 March 2012 10:22:06PM 0 points [-]

I assign 0.3 probability to my post from 23 March 2012 10:19:07PM.

0.2 to Harry going back in time and rescuing Hermione with time turner.

0.5 to Harry doing something nobody predicted yet :)

Comment author: gwern 23 March 2012 04:28:48AM *  19 points [-]

PredictionBook registry - take one prediction a day to keep the hindsight bias away! - based on the speculation:

Harry's solution will be...

(These are not all mutually exclusive, and I didn't set down and make them all sum to 100%.)

Comment author: ajuc 23 March 2012 10:19:07PM 1 point [-]

I'd say Harry would trade with Lucius - Harry would testify under Veritaserum that Dumbledore confesed to Him, that he burned Narcissa. In exchange Lucius would let Hermione free.

Harry don't know if Dumbledore burned Narcissa, but probably can beat Veritaserum (according to Quirell), and with his evil side enabled he can risk trying it.

Similiar to "make Dumbledore turn himself in", but Dumbledore had chance to do that, and declined, and I don't know if Harry can blackmail Dumbledore serioulsy enough for this. But Harry don't need to blackmail Dumbledore.

Comment author: Daniel_Starr 23 March 2012 06:37:17AM *  15 points [-]

The author's clues are pushing in two different directions. "Taboo tradeoffs" in the title, and that Harry's Dark side is delivering the solution, implies an answer that is morally unnerving or at least cold-blooded.

The author's line about Harry shifting from seeing the Wizengamot voters as "wallpaper" to seeing individuals with agency, "PCs", and the line about remembering the laws of magical Britain, implies an answer that involves the incentives and 'rules of the game' of the other Wizengamot members besides Lucius and Dumbledore.

None of the solutions I've seen (let alone the few I've thought of) seem both Dark/taboo and social/voters-are-PCs.

Harry calling in the (nominally) Imperiused voters' debts: clever, invokes customs of magical Britain, makes the voters PCs rather than wallpaper, but not very Dark or taboo.

Harry threatens the crowd with the Dementor somehow, or browbeats Dumbledore into ruining his reputation: Dark/taboo, but doesn't invoke the customs of magical Britain or treat the other Wizengamot voters as PCs.

Is there a solution that both invokes magical Britain's laws / makes PCs of the voters and involves some alarmingly Dark/taboo move or trade by Harry?

Boy-Who-Lived marries Draco Malfoy?

Comment author: ajuc 23 March 2012 09:52:50PM *  1 point [-]

Harry promises Lucius to speak under Veritaserum, that Dumbledore confesed to Harry, that he burned Narcisa. Harry is occlumens or almost occlumens, so he can beat Veritaserum, but everybody don't know it.

Lucius Malfoy has his revenge, and his son, so he let Hermione free. Dumbledore loses, and maybe everything is lost, but Hermione is free. That's taboo tradeoff.

Comment author: Alsadius 20 March 2012 05:28:55PM 2 points [-]

That's a reasonable narrative. We'll have to wait to see exactly how it played out, of course, but I wouldn't find that version surprising at all.

Conversely, however, remember how many of the basic protections we take for granted that don't exist in the wizarding world. In a lot of ways it's a medieval society, and very few leaders from that era would have flinched at doing something utterly brutal to make a point. Even real-world terrorist groups try to pretend to play by the rules of civilized society, because those rules are so expected that ignoring them would damage their cause terribly. It's the same as dictators running "free elections" - they're not, but they pretend for the PR value. I doubt that PR value exists in the wizarding world.

Comment author: ajuc 21 March 2012 12:19:22AM *  9 points [-]

I doubt PR counted for much among deatheaters, so Dumbledore did not lose anything here, and for the rest of wizarding Brittain - they didn't have a choice other than Dumbledore, so they wouldn't believe deatheaters that DD could do sth like that. And later they would not change their opinions, but would forgot their motivation (because it was unplesant - fear of worse evil).

Very similiar thing happened in real life in WW2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre Nazi Germany announced in 1943 that they have found mass graves of tousands Polish prisoners of war all killed by shot in the back of head by soviets. USA and UK had treaty with Stalin, and Germany was more immadietly dangerous, and Stalin was instrumental, so nobody believed Germans, and after the war Poland was sold to USSR, and only in 1990 Katyn massacre was made public.

Comment author: DanArmak 17 March 2012 12:02:51AM 0 points [-]

How would Harry even get to the trial in the first place? Dumbledore won't let him leave Hogwarts, and if he did, why should the Wizengamot admit him to the proceedings unless e.g. Dumbledore requested it? And why would D. do that unless he expected Harry to succeed in helping Hermione escape? But if D. wanted Hermione to escape illegally (possible but unlikely IMO), he could surely arrange that himself without Harry's help and presence. (Maybe he'd borrow the cloak...)

Comment author: ajuc 17 March 2012 12:06:34AM 3 points [-]

"Harry had used up all six hours from his Time-Turner, and there were still no clues, and he had to go to sleep now if he wanted to be functional at Hermione's trial the next day."

I assumed this means Harry will be at trial. Probably as a witness?

Comment author: cultureulterior 16 March 2012 06:19:44PM *  11 points [-]

If Harry does not manage to find the real culprit, then how does he save Hermione from having her wand broken?

Breakout/Direct Attack on the Wizengamot / Malfoy Manor

  • Transfigure a one-atom line of antimatter through the earth's crust all the way to the Wizengamot or Malfoy Manor, and then a small bubble there. His wand is then touching the item to be transformed, and it will work.

  • Go to Azkaban and round up a few hundred dementors.

Stealth

  • Transferring the cloak of invisibility to her somehow.

Bringing Hermione under the aegis of a noble house

  • Adoption or marriage
Comment author: ajuc 16 March 2012 10:24:13PM *  2 points [-]

Stealth - not only he must transfer cloak to Hermione - he must also get Hermione out of court, and she must be in cloak at all times to prevent tracking magic, and Harry must have the cloak with himself, when Dumbledore will want to see it, when tracking magic will stop working (and there's spell that detects if cloak is nearby).

One way to do this - duplicate cloak using time turner for the moment Dumbledore will want to check it.

Scheme:

  • Harry takes cloak, mokesking pouch, and time turner with himself to the court

  • Harry waits for Hermione to disappear

  • Harry puts his mokeskin poach under the table or somewhere and not look at it

  • Hermione disappears

  • Dumbledore try to track Hermione and fails - so he checks if cloak is near - it is, so he asks Harry about it - Harry shows cloak to Dumbledore and it's empty

  • Harry goes back wearing cloak just before the moment Hemrione should disappear, takes the mokeskin poach that he left under the table, somehow makes everybody look elsewhere and put Hermione into his own mokeskin poach which he keeps under the duplicated cloak (may need to use potion or sth that will turn Hermione into animal or thing or sth that he can put into poach - like with Quirrell as a snake).

  • Harry in the past waits for Dumbledore to check the cloak that Harry in the present has with himself, waits for everybody to get out, and somehow passes the poach back to himself without looking at himself. Harry in the present puts poach into the cloak.

Possible failures - Dumbledore can keep the cloak, making it impossible to hide Hermione after the time turner is used up. I think Dumbledore won't do this - he didn't wanted to keep cloak to himself, he wants Harry to have cloak just in case, and even if he see throught this plot, he can let it slip, because he probably don't want Hermione to have wand snapped. But it's one failure mode.

Also Harry must be prepared to "prove" he didn't used up his TimeTurner, like he did after Azkaban Breaking.

I probbly missed something, and this won't work.

Comment author: ajuc 16 March 2012 06:25:33AM *  1 point [-]

Did anybody bothered to check previous spells on Hermione, Snape, and Quirrell wands? EDIT: Ok, we''re told Quirrell cast tens of spells since 06:33, still - they should check just to be sure.

Now it seems Harry should just kidnapp Hermione and hide here somewhere(And give her cloak to hide her from tracking spels).

"Professor Quirrell had cast tracking Charms because he had learned of a person with a motive to harm Mr. Malfoy. Professor Quirrell had refused to identify this person." hmm, why hadn't they used veritaserum on Quirrell to ask him who had the motive? Seems like usefull thing to know after murder attempt..

Also - Quirrell said he found out about Draco at 06:33 - just half an hour too late to use Time Turner and check what happened or to stop Hermione in the first place. Funny coincidence.

Comment author: anotherblackhat 15 March 2012 08:24:00PM 3 points [-]

Hat and Cloak told Hermione "you are a Muggleborn and yet you possess a power of wizardry greater than any pureblood."

Lucius can't believe that. He can't even afford for that belief to exist, so I don't see him uttering it, even as flattery he "knows" to be false.

Comment author: ajuc 15 March 2012 09:32:31PM 1 point [-]

Lucius knows that his enemies believe muggleborn can be powerful wizards, so he can say that flattery to look like his enemies.

For people that believe blood has nothing to do with magic - they won't state the obvious.

Comment author: anotherblackhat 15 March 2012 06:46:00PM 0 points [-]

From chapter 14

"Turning into a cat doesn't even BEGIN to compare to this. You know right up until this moment I had this awful suppressed thought somewhere in the back of my mind that the only remaining answer was that my whole universe was a computer simulation like in the book Simulacron 3 but now even that is ruled out because this little toy ISN'T TURING COMPUTABLE! A Turing machine could simulate going back into a defined moment of the past and computing a different future from there, an oracle machine could rely on the halting behavior of lower-order machines, but what you're saying is that reality somehow self-consistently computes in one sweep using information that hasn't... happened... yet..."

Comment author: ajuc 15 March 2012 06:58:29PM *  0 points [-]

But Harry later tested time loops, and system somehow told him to stop messing with time. EDIT: If the computer MoR runs on is really able to compute infinite loops in one sweep, then there's no reason not to allow Harry to compute his primes. Instead something scarry happened so Harry had to tell himself not to mess with time.

So maybe it is Turing computable after all, it just have watchdogs to stop loops after some iteration.

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