Comment author: RichardKennaway 04 February 2015 09:54:17PM 1 point [-]

Very plainly said, if we investigate any person that you identify as "hero" we will find a lot of additional people contributing to the hero's success.

Who gathered those people together, to work for that success?

Comment author: alwhite 04 February 2015 10:05:52PM -2 points [-]

Depends on the size of the effort. The larger the effort, the more people involved in the gathering.

Are you suggesting that the gathering function is more important than any other function?

Comment author: Lumifer 08 January 2015 05:52:15PM 1 point [-]

people behave violently when they feel threatened

How does this apply to e.g. sexual assault?

Comment author: alwhite 15 January 2015 08:42:27PM -1 points [-]

That's a really big question. The very short answer is that shame is experienced on a physiological level the same way trauma is experienced. A lot of people who commit sexual assault are operating under beliefs that no one wants them (shame) and so do experience a kind of threat to their psyche.

(disclaimer. This does not excuse sexual assault and is only meant to inform. If you want to decrease sexual assault, look towards the shame triggers of the perpetrator.)

Comment author: seez 09 January 2015 01:15:13AM 2 points [-]

Pinker indicates that a number of factors were important. You think technology is the most powerful. Why?

Also, just because technology has had the greatest absolute impact on human wellbeing (hasn't done much for non-humans, yet) doesn't mean it's the most efficient. In fact, I think it's very likely that it isn't the most efficient. Because it's often a win-win, many people will contribute to creating and using it, unlike the sacrifices many EAs advocate for. They might contend that through sacrifice, a given individual can achieve far more that ey could by focusing on technology, although those altruistic individuals may (or may not!) remain rare enough that technology has a great overall impact.

Comment author: alwhite 15 January 2015 08:34:36PM 0 points [-]

I certainly also recognize there are other factors, but I think they pale when compared against our technological advancements. Technology in terms of general human betterment is unparalleled. This planet can not sustain a population of 7 billion without technological means of food production. Refrigeration another huge boon for food. Advances in medicine mean more people survive childhood and general illness as well. Technology enables most of our sanitation efforts which is also massive towards the betterment of human life.

None of this can be duplicated with non-technological means. We can't pray our way to better sanitation. We can't even sacrifice our way to better sanitation on any meaningful scale. But pumps and plumbing do the job magnificently.

I then think all of this contributes to lower violence and now I'm trying to tease out how much the other factors contribute. One of the possible other factors is cooperation and/or easier empathy. Can either of these do more good for a group of people than improved plumbing? I personally, don't think so but I want to see if anyone has any good data that shows otherwise.

Comment author: Lumifer 08 January 2015 05:36:43PM 1 point [-]

Can you define the terms that you're using? The PDF you linked to, for example, takes a rather broad view of "violence" as encompassing, say, corporal punishment of children by parents. Or when you say that the trend "has always been downwards", how large a perturbation are you willing to ignore?

Under a sufficiently wide definition of violence, every person engages in it (some more frequently than others).

Comment author: alwhite 08 January 2015 06:08:39PM 1 point [-]

Homicide and assault are what I think most people are referring to. The harming of the physical body through force. Additionally these numbers are referenced per capita and not as raw numbers. If we look at raw numbers, modern times certainly have more. If we look at per capita, the trend is downward.

As far as size of perturbation? That's difficult to really answer. My rough opinion would be to ignore any perturbations that span less than 100 years. So while WW1 and WW2 might cause a spike to the graph, post-WW is still lower than pre-WW and so the trend is still continuing and valid. Could also try reducing it down to 50 year averages as well to help smooth out the variation.

Comment author: Mac 07 January 2015 08:05:21PM 3 points [-]

Lower income inequality may also contribute to lower crime rates, see paper below.

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=303838

Unfortunately, it is common in social sciences that the complete explanatory model contains a messy stew of variables. I believe it is unlikely that a "silver bullet" such as technological advancement will solve the problem of violence.

Comment author: alwhite 08 January 2015 05:48:40PM 1 point [-]

Income equality certainly does play a role. This is why I include the GWP stat as well. I don't think we're at a point where income equality fixes the problem. If we made all things equal, I think we'd end up short and more people would suffer. But that is only at the view of right now. If we increased our production output even more so that total equality would put every everyone at 4 times the poverty level, then I think this income equality issue would become the greater force in violence.

Comment author: Salemicus 08 January 2015 12:07:12PM 6 points [-]

I strongly disagree that the reason for the decline in violence is that we are richer now. Being richer, we are able to afford more of the things that we like - and people like violence. The explanation lies elsewhere.

We are less violent because we are more interconnected than ever before. The potential gains from co-operation (trade) have gone up much more than the potential gains from defection (violence) so we see more co-operation and less defection. And so we sate our love of violence through violence substitutes (violent movies, video games, competitive sports, etc).

Indeed, in the resource-unconstrained world suggested by buybuydandavis, I suggest that we would see massive violence. If war isn't going to impoverish, why not invade the neighbouring country in search of honour, glory, religious orthodoxy, etc?

Comment author: alwhite 08 January 2015 05:42:51PM -1 points [-]

The co-operation theory is certainly possible and active in the whole process. Co-operation can also be more than trade too, but increasing empathy as well. But does co-operation or empathy have more impact than our richness?

Your example of movies and video games: These things exist now as part of the latest iteration of technology. Now is also the time in which violence is lowest. You suggest movies and video games have replaced physical violence. This supports my theory that technology is the cause of decreased violence.

But I disagree that people inherently like violence. As I mentioned, I'm studying counseling and most of what I understand from this is that people behave violently when they feel threatened. If you remove the feeling of threat, you most often remove the violence with it. Thus, technology as a great power in reducing violence. When achieving food, shelter, and safety is hard and requires a lot of energy we tend to feel more threatened. When all of these things are easy to attain we feel less threatened. Technology makes all this easier.

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 08 January 2015 02:10:14PM 4 points [-]

I don't know the context of the quote, but even with infinite resources we could have a fear-based society. A society where if you break some rule, you will be denied the resources you need. And the rules themselves could make you suffer if you obey them. Or the rules could be contradictory or otherwise impossible to follow.

Comment author: alwhite 08 January 2015 05:33:48PM 1 point [-]

I agree that this is possible. I'm questioning whether or not it really is true though. This could even be our future if we're not careful.

Do you have anything that says this is happening or has happened? Something other than "possibility"?

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 07 January 2015 08:38:14PM 13 points [-]

$12,400 USD, which is just barely above the poverty line for an individual.

This depends very much on you (relative) living standards esp. compared to the surrounding society. I'd guess that with that amount you could live quite comfortably in a south american capital.

Comment author: alwhite 08 January 2015 05:29:30PM 1 point [-]

The GWP is the summation of the GDP for each country. The GDP is then converted to USD for comparison sakes. GDP also is not average income, so it's not entirely accurate to assume that GWP per capita is the same as having $12,000 USD. The number is all about comparison and estimation.

I realize that this is a very crude number but I still think it is useful for recognizing that we do not yet produce enough to appease all basic needs equally.

Do you disagree with that statement? Are you suggesting that we do currently produce enough and all we need to do is redistribute?

Comment author: Lalartu 08 January 2015 09:05:27AM *  1 point [-]

from 2012 to 2014, individual violence outweighed group violence by about 9 times. http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/sites/default/files/conflict_assessment_-_hoeffler_and_fearon_0.pdf. I think it is safe to assume that historically it's at least similar.

I think it is completely different. Take German or Russian statistics over whole 20 century - it will be much closer to historical average.

Comment author: alwhite 08 January 2015 05:24:55PM 0 points [-]

Can you provide actual data for this statement? The trend on a global and historical scale has always been downwards, as far as we can tell. And this data spans thousands of years. (see the Pinker video for an overview of that data). This data is suggesting that wars, even the big 2 of the last century, aren't changing the global stats THAT much.

The 2012 - 2014 doesn't perfectly represent history but that just means history isn't exactly 9 to 1 for individual to group violence. It could be 8 to 1 or 6 to 1 or even 3 to 1, I don't know that exact number. But I very strongly doubt the ratio flopped to a 1 to 4 ratio. That's a massive change that I don't believe has happened and I need to see real stats before I'll accept a contrary statement.

Thus, I still contend the majority of violence is individual (Pinker video supports this idea too).

Comment author: shminux 07 January 2015 08:07:02PM *  7 points [-]

My personal belief on this is that our technology advancement has reduced the effort it takes for people to survive so there is less drive to become hostile towards people who have what we need.

Human history is full of counterexamples to your belief: those initiating hostilities, often at a great personal peril, are usually the ones enjoying the most comfortable living: kings, presidents, tribal chiefs. Consider updating your map to reflect the territory better.

There is a lot more correlation between hostility/violence levels and the amounts of various substances in your body, such as testosterone, lead or lithium.

Comment author: alwhite 07 January 2015 08:47:38PM 0 points [-]

I'm not sure your counter-example is that accurate either. This is a report for only recent time and so the historical accuracy is not guaranteed but from 2012 to 2014, individual violence outweighed group violence by about 9 times. http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/sites/default/files/conflict_assessment_-_hoeffler_and_fearon_0.pdf. I think it is safe to assume that historically it's at least similar.

When we look at the total historical view of violence we can not limit ourselves to just "war" or "group violence", and this data was included in Pinker's presentation. Therefore, kings, presidents, and chiefs, (if we consider them the sole source of the conflict, which we shouldn't) only contribute approximately 1/9th of the total global violence.

Sure there's a correlation that increased substances increase violence, but that in no way suggests that historical increased violence is due to increased substances. I don't think we have any kind of data that shows that these substances have been steadily decreasing over the past 10,000 years the same way that violence has been decreasing over the last 10,000 years.

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